Given a current news event, we tackle the problem of generating plausible predictions of future events it might cause. We present a new methodology for modeling and predicting such future news events using machine learning and data mining techniques. Our Pundit algorithm generalizes examples of causality pairs to infer a causality predictor. To obtain precisely labeled causality examples, we mine 150 years of news articles and apply semantic natural language modeling techniques to headlines containing certain predefined causality patterns. For generalization, the model uses a vast number of world knowledge ontologies. Empirical evaluation on real news articles shows that our Pundit algorithm performs as well as non-expert humans.

A market of potato commodity for industry scale usage is engaging several types of actors. They are farmers, middlemen, and industries. A multi-agent system has been built to simulate these actors into agent entities, based on manually given parameters within a simulation scenario file. Each type of agents has its own fuzzy logic representing actual actors' knowledge, to be used to interpreting values and take appropriated decision of it while on simulation. The system will simulate market activities with programmed behaviors then produce the results as spreadsheet and chart graph files. These results consist of each agent's yearly finance and commodity data. The system will also predict each of next value from these outputs.

The results in this paper add useful tools to the theory of sets of desirable gambles, a growing toolbox for reasoning with partial probability assessments. We investigate how to combine a number of marginal coherent sets of desirable gambles into a joint set using the properties of epistemic irrelevance and independence. We provide formulas for the smallest such joint, called their independent natural extension, and study its main properties. The independent natural extension of maximal coherent sets of desirable gambles allows us to define the strong product of sets of desirable gambles. Finally, we explore an easy way to generalise these results to also apply for the conditional versions of epistemic irrelevance and independence. Having such a set of tools that are easily implemented in computer programs is clearly beneficial to fields, like AI, with a clear interest in coherent reasoning under uncertainty using general and robust uncertainty models that require no full specification.

A fundamental question in systems biology is the construction and training to data of mathematical models. Logic formalisms have become very popular to model signaling networks because their simplicity allows us to model large systems encompassing hundreds of proteins. An approach to train (Boolean) logic models to high-throughput phospho-proteomics data was recently introduced and solved using optimization heuristics based on stochastic methods. Here we demonstrate how this problem can be solved using Answer Set Programming (ASP), a declarative problem solving paradigm, in which a problem is encoded as a logical program such that its answer sets represent solutions to the problem. ASP has significant improvements over heuristic methods in terms of efficiency and scalability, it guarantees global optimality of solutions as well as provides a complete set of solutions. We illustrate the application of ASP with in silico cases based on realistic networks and data.

A mixture of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions is introduced and used for clustering and classification. A variant of the EM algorithm is developed for parameter estimation by exploiting the relationship with the general inverse Gaussian distribution. This approach is mathematically elegant and relatively computationally straightforward. Our novel mixture modelling approach is demonstrated on both simulated and real data to illustrate clustering and classification applications. In these analyses, our mixture of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions performs favourably when compared to the popular Gaussian approach. This work, which marks an important step in the non-Gaussian model-based clustering and classification direction, concludes with discussion as well as suggestions for future work.

We have a lot of relation to the encoding and the Theory of Information, when considering thinking. This is a natural process and, at once, the complex thing we investigate. This always was a challenge - to understand how our mind works, and we are trying to find some universal models for this. A lot of ways have been considered so far, but we are looking for Something, we seek for approaches. And the goal is to find a consistent, noncontradictory view, which should at once be enough flexible in any dimensions to allow to represent various kinds of processes and environments, matters of different nature and diverse objects. Developing of such a model is the destination of this article.

Renewable and sustainable energy is one of the most important challenges currently facing mankind. Wind has made an increasing contribution to the world's energy supply mix, but still remains a long way from reaching its full potential. In this paper, we investigate the use of artificial evolution to design vertical-axis wind turbine prototypes that are physically instantiated and evaluated under approximated wind tunnel conditions. An artificial neural network is used as a surrogate model to assist learning and found to reduce the number of fabrications required to reach a higher aerodynamic efficiency, resulting in an important cost reduction. Unlike in other approaches, such as computational fluid dynamics simulations, no mathematical formulations are used and no model assumptions are made. Index Terms Evolutionary algorithms, surrogate assisted evolution, three-dimensional printers, wind turbines. In recent years, wind has made an increasing contribution to the world's energy supply mix.

In this note, we present a new averaging technique for the projected stochastic subgradient method. By using a weighted average with a weight of t+1 for each iterate w_t at iteration t, we obtain the convergence rate of O(1/t) with both an easy proof and an easy implementation. The new scheme is compared empirically to existing techniques, with similar performance behavior.

All standard AI planners to-date can only handle a single objective, and the only way for them to take into account multiple objectives is by aggregation of the objectives. Furthermore, and in deep contrast with the single objective case, there exists no benchmark problems on which to test the algorithms for multi-objective planning. Divide and Evolve (DAE) is an evolutionary planner that won the (single-objective) deterministic temporal satisficing track in the last International Planning Competition. Even though it uses intensively the classical (and hence single-objective) planner YAHSP, it is possible to turn DAE-YAHSP into a multi-objective evolutionary planner. A tunable benchmark suite for multi-objective planning is first proposed, and the performances of several variants of multi-objective DAE-YAHSP are compared on different instances of this benchmark, hopefully paving the road to further multi-objective competitions in AI planning.

In this paper, we consider the important problem of safe exploration in reinforcement learning. While reinforcement learning is well-suited to domains with complex transition dynamics and high-dimensional state-action spaces, an additional challenge is posed by the need for safe and efficient exploration. Traditional exploration techniques are not particularly useful for solving dangerous tasks, where the trial and error process may lead to the selection of actions whose execution in some states may result in damage to the learning system (or any other system). Consequently, when an agent begins an interaction with a dangerous and high-dimensional state-action space, an important question arises; namely, that of how to avoid (or at least minimize) damage caused by the exploration of the state-action space. We introduce the PI-SRL algorithm which safely improves suboptimal albeit robust behaviors for continuous state and action control tasks and which efficiently learns from the experience gained from the environment. We evaluate the proposed method in four complex tasks: automatic car parking, pole-balancing, helicopter hovering, and business management.