Extensional higher-order logic programming has been introduced as a generalization of classical logic programming. An important characteristic of this paradigm is that it preserves all the well-known properties of traditional logic programming. In this paper we consider the semantics of negation in the context of the new paradigm. Using some recent results from non-monotonic fixed-point theory, we demonstrate that every higher-order logic program with negation has a unique minimum infinite-valued model. In this way we obtain the first purely model-theoretic semantics for negation in extensional higher-order logic programming. Using our approach, we resolve an old paradox that was introduced by W. W. Wadge in order to demonstrate the semantic difficulties of higher-order logic programming.

The belief bias effect is a phenomenon which occurs when we think that we judge an argument based on our reasoning, but are actually influenced by our beliefs and prior knowledge. Evans, Barston and Pollard carried out a psychological syllogistic reasoning task to prove this effect. Participants were asked whether they would accept or reject a given syllogism. We discuss one specific case which is commonly assumed to be believable but which is actually not logically valid. By introducing abnormalities, abduction and background knowledge, we adequately model this case under the weak completion semantics. Our formalization reveals new questions about possible extensions in abductive reasoning. For instance, observations and their explanations might include some relevant prior abductive contextual information concerning some side-effect or leading to a contestable or refutable side-effect. A weaker notion indicates the support of some relevant consequences by a prior abductive context. Yet another definition describes jointly supported relevant consequences, which captures the idea of two observations containing mutually supportive side-effects. Though motivated with and exemplified by the running psychology application, the various new general abductive context definitions are introduced here and given a declarative semantics for the first time, and have a much wider scope of application. Inspection points, a concept introduced by Pereira and Pinto, allows us to express these definitions syntactically and intertwine them into an operational semantics.

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA) addresses this problem by substituting the single prior over the models by a set of priors (credal set). Such approach solves the problem of how to choose the prior over the models and automates sensitivity analysis. We discuss various CMA algorithms for building an ensemble of logistic regressors characterized by different sets of covariates. We show how CMA can be appropriately tuned to the case in which one is prior-ignorant and to the case in which instead domain knowledge is available. CMA detects prior-dependent instances, namely instances in which a different class is more probable depending on the prior over the models. On such instances CMA suspends the judgment, returning multiple classes. We thoroughly compare different BMA and CMA variants on a real case study, predicting presence of Alpine marmot burrows in an Alpine valley. We find that BMA is almost a random guesser on the instances recognized as prior-dependent by CMA.

Additive models play an important role in semiparametric statistics. This paper gives learning rates for regularized kernel based methods for additive models. These learning rates compare favourably in particular in high dimensions to recent results on optimal learning rates for purely nonparametric regularized kernel based quantile regression using the Gaussian radial basis function kernel, provided the assumption of an additive model is valid. Additionally, a concrete example is presented to show that a Gaussian function depending only on one variable lies in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by an additive Gaussian kernel, but does not belong to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by the multivariate Gaussian kernel of the same variance.

We consider the class of convex minimization problems, composed of a self-concordant function, such as the $\log\det$ metric, a convex data fidelity term $h(\cdot)$ and, a regularizing -- possibly non-smooth -- function $g(\cdot)$. This type of problems have recently attracted a great deal of interest, mainly due to their omnipresence in top-notch applications. Under this \emph{locally} Lipschitz continuous gradient setting, we analyze the convergence behavior of proximal Newton schemes with the added twist of a probable presence of inexact evaluations. We prove attractive convergence rate guarantees and enhance state-of-the-art optimization schemes to accommodate such developments. Experimental results on sparse covariance estimation show the merits of our algorithm, both in terms of recovery efficiency and complexity.

In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem a gambler needs to choose at each round of play one of K arms, each characterized by an unknown reward distribution. Reward realizations are only observed when an arm is selected, and the gambler's objective is to maximize his cumulative expected earnings over some given horizon of play T. To do this, the gambler needs to acquire information about arms (exploration) while simultaneously optimizing immediate rewards (exploitation); the price paid due to this trade off is often referred to as the regret, and the main question is how small can this price be as a function of the horizon length T. This problem has been studied extensively when the reward distributions do not change over time; an assumption that supports a sharp characterization of the regret, yet is often violated in practical settings. In this paper, we focus on a MAB formulation which allows for a broad range of temporal uncertainties in the rewards, while still maintaining mathematical tractability. We fully characterize the (regret) complexity of this class of MAB problems by establishing a direct link between the extent of allowable reward "variation" and the minimal achievable regret. Our analysis draws some connections between two rather disparate strands of literature: the adversarial and the stochastic MAB frameworks.

In online advertising, display ads are increasingly being placed based on real-time auctions where the advertiser who wins gets to serve the ad. This is called real-time bidding (RTB). In RTB, auctions have very tight time constraints on the order of 100ms. Therefore mechanisms for bidding intelligently such as clickthrough rate prediction need to be sufficiently fast. In this work, we propose to use dimensionality reduction of the user-website interaction graph in order to produce simplified features of users and websites that can be used as predictors of clickthrough rate. We demonstrate that the Infinite Relational Model (IRM) as a dimensionality reduction offers comparable predictive performance to conventional dimensionality reduction schemes, while achieving the most economical usage of features and fastest computations at run-time. For applications such as real-time bidding, where fast database I/O and few computations are key to success, we thus recommend using IRM based features as predictors to exploit the recommender effects from bipartite graphs.

Clever sampling methods can be used to improve the handling of big data and increase its usefulness. The subject of this study is remote sensing, specifically airborne laser scanning point clouds representing different classes of ground cover. The aim is to derive a supervised learning model for the classification using CARTs. In order to measure the effect of different sampling methods on the classification accuracy, various experiments with varying types of sampling methods, sample sizes, and accuracy metrics have been designed. Numerical results for a subset of a large surveying project covering the lower Rhine area in Germany are shown. General conclusions regarding sampling design are drawn and presented.

Dynamic geometry systems (DGS) have become basic tools in many areas of geometry as, for example, in education. Geometry Automated Theorem Provers (GATP) are an active area of research and are considered as being basic tools in future enhanced educational software as well as in a next generation of mechanized mathematics assistants. Recently emerged Web repositories of geometric knowledge, like TGTP and Intergeo, are an attempt to make the already vast data set of geometric knowledge widely available. Considering the large amount of geometric information already available, we face the need of a query mechanism for descriptions of geometric constructions. In this paper we discuss two approaches for describing geometric figures (declarative and procedural), and present algorithms for querying geometric figures in declaratively and procedurally described corpora, by using a DGS or a dedicated controlled natural language for queries.

Existing work in multi-agent collision prediction and avoidance typically assumes discrete-time trajectories with Gaussian uncertainty or that are completely deterministic. We propose an approach that allows detection of collisions even between continuous, stochastic trajectories with the only restriction that means and variances can be computed. To this end, we employ probabilistic bounds to derive criterion functions whose negative sign provably is indicative of probable collisions. For criterion functions that are Lipschitz, an algorithm is provided to rapidly find negative values or prove their absence. We propose an iterative policy-search approach that avoids prior discretisations and yields collision-free trajectories with adjustably high certainty. We test our method with both fixed-priority and auction-based protocols for coordinating the iterative planning process. Results are provided in collision-avoidance simulations of feedback controlled plants.