Over the last decade, there has been growing interest in the use or measures or change in belief for reasoning with uncertainty in artificial intelligence research. An important characteristic of several methodologies that reason with changes in belief or belief updates, is a property that we term modularity. We call updates that satisfy this property modular updates. Whereas probabilistic measures of belief update - which satisfy the modularity property were first discovered in the nineteenth century, knowledge and discussion of these quantities remains obscure in artificial intelligence research. We define modular updates and discuss their inappropriate use in two influential expert systems.

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection criterion, most often the Bayesian information criterion. Rather than throw away all but the best model, we average multiple models that are in some sense close to the best one, thereby producing a weighted average of clustering results. Two (weighted) averaging approaches are considered: averaging the component membership probabilities and averaging models. In both cases, Occam's window is used to determine closeness to the best model and weights are computed within a Bayesian model averaging paradigm. In some cases, we need to merge components before averaging; we introduce a method for merging mixture components based on the adjusted Rand index. The effectiveness of our model-based clustering averaging approaches is illustrated using a family of Gaussian mixture models on real and simulated data.

This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer latent structure, and cope with large numbers of observed processes. A further novel contribution enables the model to work effectively in higher dimensional spaces. Using this method, we achieve vastly improved predictive performance on both 2D and 1D real data, validating our structured approach.

How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score distributions observed last year to the current score distribution. This is a special (simple) case of a finite mixture model where the mixture components are fixed and only the weights of the components are estimated. The optimum weights provide a forecast of next year's portfolio-wide default rate. We point out that the maximum-likelihood (ML) approach to fitting the mixture distribution not only gives an optimum but even an exact fit if we allow the mixture components to vary but keep their density ratio fix. From this observation we can conclude that the standard default rate forecast based on last year's conditional default rates will always be located between last year's portfolio-wide default rate and the ML forecast for next year. As an application example, then cost quantification is discussed. We also discuss how the mixture model based estimation methods can be used to forecast total loss. This involves the reinterpretation of an individual classification problem as a collective quantification problem.

False-name manipulation refers to the question of whether a player in a weighted voting game can increase her power by splitting into several players and distributing her weight among these false identities. Relatedly, the beneficial merging problem asks whether a coalition of players can increase their power in a weighted voting game by merging their weights. For the problems of whether merging or splitting players in weighted voting games is beneficial in terms of the Shapley--Shubik and the normalized Banzhaf index, merely NP-hardness lower bounds are known, leaving the question about their exact complexity open. For the Shapley--Shubik and the probabilistic Banzhaf index, we raise these lower bounds to hardness for PP, "probabilistic polynomial time," a class considered to be by far a larger class than NP. For both power indices, we provide matching upper bounds for beneficial merging and, whenever the new players' weights are given, also for beneficial splitting, thus resolving previous conjectures in the affirmative. Relatedly, we consider the beneficial annexation problem, asking whether a single player can increase her power by taking over other players' weights. It is known that annexation is never disadvantageous for the Shapley--Shubik index, and that beneficial annexation is NP-hard for the normalized Banzhaf index. We show that annexation is never disadvantageous for the probabilistic Banzhaf index either, and for both the Shapley--Shubik index and the probabilistic Banzhaf index we show that it is NP-complete to decide whether annexing another player is advantageous. Moreover, we propose a general framework for merging and splitting that can be applied to different classes and representations of games.

Dynamic scheduling problems consist of both challenging combinatorics, as found in classical scheduling problems, and stochastics due to uncertainty about the arrival times, resource requirements, and processing times of jobs. To address these two challenges, we investigate the integration of queueing theory and scheduling. The former reasons about long-run stochastic system characteristics, whereas the latter typically deals with short-term combinatorics. We investigate two simple problems to isolate the core differences and potential synergies between the two approaches: a two-machine dynamic flowshop and a flexible queueing network. We show for the first time that stability, a fundamental characteristic in queueing theory, can be applied to approaches that periodically solve combinatorial scheduling problems. We empirically demonstrate that for a dynamic flowshop, the use of combinatorial reasoning has little impact on schedule quality beyond queueing approaches. In contrast, for the more complicated flexible queueing network, a novel algorithm that combines long-term guidance from queueing theory with short-term combinatorial decision making outperforms all other tested approaches. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a hybrid of queueing theory and scheduling techniques has been proposed and evaluated.

Many graph clustering quality functions suffer from a resolution limit, the inability to find small clusters in large graphs. So called resolution-limit-free quality functions do not have this limit. This property was previously introduced for hard clustering, that is, graph partitioning. We investigate the resolution-limit-free property in the context of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) for hard and soft graph clustering. To use NMF in the hard clustering setting, a common approach is to assign each node to its highest membership cluster. We show that in this case symmetric NMF is not resolution-limit-free, but that it becomes so when hardness constraints are used as part of the optimization. The resulting function is strongly linked to the Constant Potts Model. In soft clustering, nodes can belong to more than one cluster, with varying degrees of membership. In this setting resolution-limit-free turns out to be too strong a property. Therefore we introduce locality, which roughly states that changing one part of the graph does not affect the clustering of other parts of the graph. We argue that this is a desirable property, provide conditions under which NMF quality functions are local, and propose a novel class of local probabilistic NMF quality functions for soft graph clustering.

The use of machine-learning in neuroimaging offers new perspectives in early diagnosis and prognosis of brain diseases. Although such multivariate methods can capture complex relationships in the data, traditional approaches provide irregular (l2 penalty) or scattered (l1 penalty) predictive pattern with a very limited relevance. A penalty like Total Variation (TV) that exploits the natural 3D structure of the images can increase the spatial coherence of the weight map. However, TV penalization leads to non-smooth optimization problems that are hard to minimize. We propose an optimization framework that minimizes any combination of l1, l2, and TV penalties while preserving the exact l1 penalty. This algorithm uses Nesterov's smoothing technique to approximate the TV penalty with a smooth function such that the loss and the penalties are minimized with an exact accelerated proximal gradient algorithm. We propose an original continuation algorithm that uses successively smaller values of the smoothing parameter to reach a prescribed precision while achieving the best possible convergence rate. This algorithm can be used with other losses or penalties. The algorithm is applied on a classification problem on the ADNI dataset. We observe that the TV penalty does not necessarily improve the prediction but provides a major breakthrough in terms of support recovery of the predictive brain regions.

Crowdsourcing has been proven to be an effective and efficient tool to annotate large datasets. User annotations are often noisy, so methods to combine the annotations to produce reliable estimates of the ground truth are necessary. We claim that considering the existence of clusters of users in this combination step can improve the performance. This is especially important in early stages of crowdsourcing implementations, where the number of annotations is low. At this stage there is not enough information to accurately estimate the bias introduced by each annotator separately, so we have to resort to models that consider the statistical links among them. In addition, finding these clusters is interesting in itself as knowing the behavior of the pool of annotators allows implementing efficient active learning strategies. Based on this, we propose in this paper two new fully unsupervised models based on a Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) prior and a hierarchical structure that allows inferring these groups jointly with the ground truth and the properties of the users. Efficient inference algorithms based on Gibbs sampling with auxiliary variables are proposed. Finally, we perform experiments, both on synthetic and real databases, to show the advantages of our models over state-of-the-art algorithms.

A backbone of a propositional CNF formula is a variable whose truth value is the same in every truth assignment that satisfies the formula. The notion of backbones for CNF formulas has been studied in various contexts. In this paper, we introduce local variants of backbones, and study the computational complexity of detecting them. In particular, we consider k-backbones, which are backbones for sub-formulas consisting of at most k clauses, and iterative k-backbones, which are backbones that result after repeated instantiations of k-backbones. We determine the parameterized complexity of deciding whether a variable is a k-backbone or an iterative k-backbone for various restricted formula classes, including Horn, definite Horn, and Krom. We also present some first empirical results regarding backbones for CNF-Satisfiability (SAT). The empirical results we obtain show that a large fraction of the backbones of structured SAT instances are local, in contrast to random instances, which appear to have few local backbones.