We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unknown (hyper-)parameters (for example to compute marginal likelihood or a partition function). MCMC has provided approaches to numerical integration that deliver state-of-the-art inference, but can suffer from sample inefficiency and poor convergence diagnostics. Bayesian quadrature techniques offer a model-based solution to such problems, but their uptake has been hindered by prohibitive computation costs. We introduce a warped model for probabilistic integrands (likelihoods) that are known to be non-negative, permitting a cheap active learning scheme to optimally select sample locations. Our algorithm is demonstrated to offer faster convergence (in seconds) relative to simple Monte Carlo and annealed importance sampling on both synthetic and real-world examples.

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

We propose RoBiRank, a ranking algorithm that is motivated by observing a close connection between evaluation metrics for learning to rank and loss functions for robust classification. The algorithm shows a very competitive performance on standard benchmark datasets against other representative algorithms in the literature. Further, in large scale problems where explicit feature vectors and scores are not given, our algorithm can be efficiently parallelized across a large number of machines; for a task that requires 386,133 x 49,824,519 pairwise interactions between items to be ranked, our algorithm finds solutions that are of dramatically higher quality than that can be found by a state-of-the-art competitor algorithm, given the same amount of wall-clock time for computation.

Large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are usually solved using Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) methods such as Approximate Value Iteration (AVI) or Approximate Policy Iteration (API). The main contribution of this paper is to show that, alternatively, the optimal state-action value function can be estimated using Difference of Convex functions (DC) Programming. To do so, we study the minimization of a norm of the Optimal Bellman Residual (OBR) $T^*Q-Q$, where $T^*$ is the so-called optimal Bellman operator. Controlling this residual allows controlling the distance to the optimal action-value function, and we show that minimizing an empirical norm of the OBR is consistant in the Vapnik sense. Finally, we frame this optimization problem as a DC program. That allows envisioning using the large related literature on DC Programming to address the Reinforcement Leaning (RL) problem.

Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the network. How much external drive should be provided to each user, such that the network activity can be steered towards a target state? In this paper, we model social events using multivariate Hawkes processes, which can capture both endogenous and exogenous event intensities, and derive a time dependent linear relation between the intensity of exogenous events and the overall network activity. Exploiting this connection, we develop a convex optimization framework for determining the required level of external drive in order for the network to reach a desired activity level. We experimented with event data gathered from Twitter, and show that our method can steer the activity of the network more accurately than alternatives.

We present an algorithm for finding a chordal Markov network that maximizes any given decomposable scoring function. The algorithm is based on a recursive characterization of clique trees, and it runs in O(4^n) time for n vertices. On an eight-vertex benchmark instance, our implementation turns out to be about ten million times faster than a recently proposed, constraint satisfaction based algorithm (Corander et al., NIPS 2013). Within a few hours, it is able to solve instances up to 18 vertices, and beyond if we restrict the maximum clique size. We also study the performance of a recent integer linear programming algorithm (Bartlett and Cussens, UAI 2013). Our results suggest that, unless we bound the clique sizes, currently only the dynamic programming algorithm is guaranteed to solve instances with around 15 or more vertices.

In this paper we propose a general framework for learning distributed representations of attributes: characteristics of text whose representations can be jointly learned with word embeddings. Attributes can correspond to a wide variety of concepts, such as document indicators (to learn sentence vectors), language indicators (to learn distributed language representations), meta-data and side information (such as the age, gender and industry of a blogger) or representations of authors. We describe a third-order model where word context and attribute vectors interact multiplicatively to predict the next word in a sequence. This leads to the notion of conditional word similarity: how meanings of words change when conditioned on different attributes. We perform several experimental tasks including sentiment classification, cross-lingual document classification, and blog authorship attribution. We also qualitatively evaluate conditional word neighbours and attribute-conditioned text generation.

We study the early locust olfactory system in an attempt to explain its well-characterized structure and dynamics. We first propose its computational function as recovery of high-dimensional sparse olfactory signals from a small number of measurements. Detailed experimental knowledge about this system rules out standard algorithmic solutions to this problem. Instead, we show that solving a dual formulation of the corresponding optimisation problem yields structure and dynamics in good agreement with biological data. Further biological constraints lead us to a reduced form of this dual formulation in which the system uses independent component analysis to continuously adapt to its olfactory environment to allow accurate sparse recovery. Our work demonstrates the challenges and rewards of attempting detailed understanding of experimentally well-characterized systems.

Multiple lines of evidence support the notion that the brain performs probabilistic inference in multiple cognitive domains, including perception and decision making. There is also evidence that probabilistic inference may be implemented in the brain through the (quasi-)stochastic activity of neural circuits, producing samples from the appropriate posterior distributions, effectively implementing a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. However, time becomes a fundamental bottleneck in such sampling-based probabilistic representations: the quality of inferences depends on how fast the neural circuit generates new, uncorrelated samples from its stationary distribution (the posterior). We explore this bottleneck in a simple, linear-Gaussian latent variable model, in which posterior sampling can be achieved by stochastic neural networks with linear dynamics. The well-known Langevin sampling (LS) recipe, so far the only sampling algorithm for continuous variables of which a neural implementation has been suggested, naturally fits into this dynamical framework. However, we first show analytically and through simulations that the symmetry of the synaptic weight matrix implied by LS yields critically slow mixing when the posterior is high-dimensional. Next, using methods from control theory, we construct and inspect networks that are optimally fast, and hence orders of magnitude faster than LS, while being far more biologically plausible. In these networks, strong -- but transient -- selective amplification of external noise generates the spatially correlated activity fluctuations prescribed by the posterior. Intriguingly, although a detailed balance of excitation and inhibition is dynamically maintained, detailed balance of Markov chain steps in the resulting sampler is violated, consistent with recent findings on how statistical irreversibility can overcome the speed limitation of random walks in other domains.

Gaussian process regression can be accelerated by constructing a small pseudo-dataset to summarise the observed data. This idea sits at the heart of many approximation schemes, but such an approach requires the number of pseudo-datapoints to be scaled with the range of the input space if the accuracy of the approximation is to be maintained. This presents problems in time-series settings or in spatial datasets where large numbers of pseudo-datapoints are required since computation typically scales quadratically with the pseudo-dataset size. In this paper we devise an approximation whose complexity grows linearly with the number of pseudo-datapoints. This is achieved by imposing a tree or chain structure on the pseudo-datapoints and calibrating the approximation using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimisation. Inference and learning can then be performed efficiently using the Gaussian belief propagation algorithm. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on a set of challenging regression tasks including missing data imputation for audio and spatial datasets. We trace out the speed-accuracy trade-off for the new method and show that the frontier dominates those obtained from a large number of existing approximation techniques.