A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn from an approximate posterior. However, its feasibility is being challenged in the era of so called Big Data as all data needs to be processed in every iteration. Realising that such simulation is an unnecessarily hard problem if the goal is estimation, we construct a computationally scalable methodology that allows unbiased estimation of the required expectations -- without explicit simulation from the full posterior. The scheme's variance is finite by construction and straightforward to control, leading to algorithms that are provably unbiased and naturally arrive at a desired error tolerance. This is achieved at an average computational complexity that is sub-linear in the size of the dataset and its free parameters are easy to tune. We demonstrate the utility and generality of the methodology on a range of common statistical models applied to large-scale benchmark and real-world datasets.

In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR/MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe decisions in OR/MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR/MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs/revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main problem of interest is a conditional stochastic optimization problem, given imperfect observations, where the joint probability distributions that specify the problem are unknown. We demonstrate that our proposed solution methods are generally applicable to a wide range of decision problems. We prove that they are computationally tractable and asymptotically optimal under mild conditions even when data is not independent and identically distributed (iid) and even for censored observations. As an analogue to the coefficient of determination $R^2$, we develop a metric $P$ termed the coefficient of prescriptiveness to measure the prescriptive content of data and the efficacy of a policy from an operations perspective. To demonstrate the power of our approach in a real-world setting we study an inventory management problem faced by the distribution arm of an international media conglomerate, which ships an average of 1 billion units per year. We leverage both internal data and public online data harvested from IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Google to prescribe operational decisions that outperform baseline measures. Specifically, the data we collect, leveraged by our methods, accounts for an 88% improvement as measured by our coefficient of prescriptiveness.

There has been an explosion of interest in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) during the past two decades. Naturally, this has been accompanied by many major advances in the understanding of the human connectome. These advances have served to pose novel challenges as well as open new avenues for research. One of the most promising and exciting of such avenues is the study of functional MRI in real-time. Such studies have recently gained momentum and have been applied in a wide variety of settings; ranging from training of healthy subjects to self-regulate neuronal activity to being suggested as potential treatments for clinical populations. To date, the vast majority of these studies have focused on a single region at a time. This is due in part to the many challenges faced when estimating dynamic functional connectivity networks in real-time. In this work we propose a novel methodology with which to accurately track changes in functional connectivity networks in real-time. We adapt the recently proposed SINGLE algorithm for estimating sparse and temporally homo- geneous dynamic networks to be applicable in real-time. The proposed method is applied to motor task data from the Human Connectome Project as well as to real-time data ob- tained while exploring a virtual environment. We show that the algorithm is able to estimate significant task-related changes in network structure quickly enough to be useful in future brain-computer interface applications.

Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) have found many applications in density estimation and data clustering. However, the model does not adapt well to curved and strongly nonlinear data. Recently there appeared an improvement called AcaGMM (Active curve axis Gaussian Mixture Model), which fits Gaussians along curves using an EM-like (Expectation Maximization) approach. Using the ideas standing behind AcaGMM, we build an alternative active function model of clustering, which has some advantages over AcaGMM. In particular it is naturally defined in arbitrary dimensions and enables an easy adaptation to clustering of complicated datasets along the predefined family of functions. Moreover, it does not need external methods to determine the number of clusters as it automatically reduces the number of groups on-line.

The production system is a theoretical model of computation relevant to the artificial intelligence field allowing for problem solving procedures such as hierarchical tree search. In this work we explore some of the connections between artificial intelligence and quantum computation by presenting a model for a quantum production system. Our approach focuses on initially developing a model for a reversible production system which is a simple mapping of Bennett's reversible Turing machine. We then expand on this result in order to accommodate for the requirements of quantum computation. We present the details of how our proposition can be used alongside Grover's algorithm in order to yield a speedup comparatively to its classical counterpart. We discuss the requirements associated with such a speedup and how it compares against a similar quantum hierarchical search approach.

For most problems in science and engineering we can obtain data sets that describe the observed system from various perspectives and record the behavior of its individual components. Heterogeneous data sets can be collectively mined by data fusion. Fusion can focus on a specific target relation and exploit directly associated data together with contextual data and data about system's constraints. In the paper we describe a data fusion approach with penalized matrix tri-factorization (DFMF) that simultaneously factorizes data matrices to reveal hidden associations. The approach can directly consider any data that can be expressed in a matrix, including those from feature-based representations, ontologies, associations and networks. We demonstrate the utility of DFMF for gene function prediction task with eleven different data sources and for prediction of pharmacologic actions by fusing six data sources. Our data fusion algorithm compares favorably to alternative data integration approaches and achieves higher accuracy than can be obtained from any single data source alone.

Event detection has been one of the most important research topics in social media analysis. Most of the traditional approaches detect events based on fixed temporal and spatial resolutions, while in reality events of different scales usually occur simultaneously, namely, they span different intervals in time and space. In this paper, we propose a novel approach towards multiscale event detection using social media data, which takes into account different temporal and spatial scales of events in the data. Specifically, we explore the properties of the wavelet transform, which is a well-developed multiscale transform in signal processing, to enable automatic handling of the interaction between temporal and spatial scales. We then propose a novel algorithm to compute a data similarity graph at appropriate scales and detect events of different scales simultaneously by a single graph-based clustering process. Furthermore, we present spatiotemporal statistical analysis of the noisy information present in the data stream, which allows us to define a novel term-filtering procedure for the proposed event detection algorithm and helps us study its behavior using simulated noisy data. Experimental results on both synthetically generated data and real world data collected from Twitter demonstrate the meaningfulness and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Our framework further extends to numerous application domains that involve multiscale and multiresolution data analysis.

A central question for active learning (AL) is: "what is the optimal selection?" Defining optimality by classifier loss produces a new characterisation of optimal AL behaviour, by treating expected loss reduction as a statistical target for estimation. This target forms the basis of model retraining improvement (MRI), a novel approach providing a statistical estimation framework for AL. This framework is constructed to address the central question of AL optimality, and to motivate the design of estimation algorithms. MRI allows the exploration of optimal AL behaviour, and the examination of AL heuristics, showing precisely how they make sub-optimal selections. The abstract formulation of MRI is used to provide a new guarantee for AL, that an unbiased MRI estimator should outperform random selection. This MRI framework reveals intricate estimation issues that in turn motivate the construction of new statistical AL algorithms. One new algorithm in particular performs strongly in a large-scale experimental study, compared to standard AL methods. This competitive performance suggests that practical efforts to minimise estimation bias may be important for AL applications.

Based on the Aristotelian concept of potentiality vs. actuality allowing for the study of energy and dynamics in language, we propose a field approach to lexical analysis. Falling back on the distributional hypothesis to statistically model word meaning, we used evolving fields as a metaphor to express time-dependent changes in a vector space model by a combination of random indexing and evolving self-organizing maps (ESOM). To monitor semantic drifts within the observation period, an experiment was carried out on the term space of a collection of 12.8 million Amazon book reviews. For evaluation, the semantic consistency of ESOM term clusters was compared with their respective neighbourhoods in WordNet, and contrasted with distances among term vectors by random indexing. We found that at 0.05 level of significance, the terms in the clusters showed a high level of semantic consistency. Tracking the drift of distributional patterns in the term space across time periods, we found that consistency decreased, but not at a statistically significant level. Our method is highly scalable, with interpretations in philosophy.

Typical dimensionality reduction (DR) methods are often data-oriented, focusing on directly reducing the number of random variables (features) while retaining the maximal variations in the high-dimensional data. In unsupervised situations, one of the main limitations of these methods lies in their dependency on the scale of data features. This paper aims to address the problem from a new perspective and considers model-oriented dimensionality reduction in parameter spaces of binary multivariate distributions. Specifically, we propose a general parameter reduction criterion, called Confident-Information-First (CIF) principle, to maximally preserve confident parameters and rule out less confident parameters. Formally, the confidence of each parameter can be assessed by its contribution to the expected Fisher information distance within the geometric manifold over the neighbourhood of the underlying real distribution. We then revisit Boltzmann machines (BM) from a model selection perspective and theoretically show that both the fully visible BM (VBM) and the BM with hidden units can be derived from the general binary multivariate distribution using the CIF principle. This can help us uncover and formalize the essential parts of the target density that BM aims to capture and the non-essential parts that BM should discard. Guided by the theoretical analysis, we develop a sample-specific CIF for model selection of BM that is adaptive to the observed samples. The method is studied in a series of density estimation experiments and has been shown effective in terms of the estimate accuracy.