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Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

AAAI Conferences

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks.ย  This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.


Search More, Disclose Less

AAAI Conferences

The blooming of comparison shopping agents (CSAs) in recent years enables buyers in today's markets to query more than a single CSA while shopping, thus substantially expanding the list of sellers whose prices they obtain. From the individual CSA point of view, however, the multi-CSAs querying is definitely non-favorable as most of today's CSAs benefit depends on payments they receive from sellers upon transferring buyers to their websites (and making a purchase). The most straightforward way for the CSA to improve its competence is through spending more resources on getting more sellers' prices, potentially resulting in a more attractive ``best price''. In this paper we suggest a complementary approach that improves the attractiveness of the best price returned to the buyer without having to extend the CSAs' price database. This approach, which we term ``selective price disclosure'' relies on removing some of the prices known to the CSA from the list of results returned to the buyer. The advantage of this approach is in the ability to affect the buyer's beliefs regarding the probability of obtaining more attractive prices if querying additional CSAs. The paper presents two methods for choosing the subset of prices to be presented to a fully-rational buyer, attempting to overcome the computational complexity associated with evaluating all possible subsets. The effectiveness and efficiency of the methods are demonstrated using real data, collected from five CSAs for four products. Furthermore, since people are known to have an inherently bounded rationality, the two methods are also evaluated with human buyers, demonstrating that selective price-disclosing can be highly effective with people, however the subset of prices that needs to be used should be extracted in a different (and more simplistic) manner.


Red-Black Relaxed Plan Heuristics

AAAI Conferences

Despite its success, the delete relaxation has significant pitfalls. Recent work has devised the red-black planning framework, where red variables take the relaxed semantics (accumulating their values), while black variables take the regular semantics. Provided the red variables are chosen so that red-black plan generation is tractable, one can generate such a plan for every search state, and take its length as the heuristic distance estimate. Previous results were not suitable for this purpose because they identified tractable fragments for red-black plan existence, as opposed to red-black plan generation. We identify a new fragment of red-black planning, that fixes this issue. We devise machinery to efficiently generate red-black plans, and to automatically select the red variables. Experiments show that the resulting heuristics can significantly improve over standard delete relaxation heuristics.


Resolution and Parallelizability: Barriers to the Efficient Parallelization of SAT Solvers

AAAI Conferences

Recent attempts to create versions of Satisfiability (SAT) solversthat exploit parallel hardware and information sharing have met withlimited success. In fact,the most successful parallel solvers in recent competitions were basedon portfolio approaches with little to no exchange of informationbetween processors. This experience contradicts the apparentparallelizability of exploring a combinatorial search space. Wepresent evidence that this discrepancy can be explained by studyingSAT solvers through a proof complexity lens, as resolution refutationengines. Starting with theobservation that a recently studied measure of resolution proofs,namely depth, provides a (weak) upper bound to the best possiblespeedup achievable by such solvers, we empirically show the existenceof bottlenecks to parallelizability that resolution proofs typicallygenerated by SAT solvers exhibit. Further, we propose a new measureof parallelizability based on the best-case makespan of an offlineresource constrained scheduling problem. This measureexplicitly accounts for a bounded number of parallel processors andappears to empirically correlate with parallel speedups observed inpractice. Our findings suggest that efficient parallelization of SATsolvers is not simply a matter of designing the right clause sharingheuristics; even in the best case, it can be --- and indeed is ---hindered by the structure of the resolution proofs current SAT solverstypically produce.


Filtering With Logic Programs and Its Application to General Game Playing

AAAI Conferences

Motivated by the problem of building a basic reasoner for general game playing with imperfect information, we address the problem of filtering with logic programs, whereby an agent updates its incomplete knowledge of a program by observations. We develop a filtering method by adapting an existing backward-chaining and abduction method for so-called open logic programs. Experimental results show that this provides a basic effective and efficient "legal" player for general imperfect-information games.


Basis Adaptation for Sparse Nonlinear Reinforcement Learning

AAAI Conferences

This paper presents a new approach to representation discovery in reinforcement learning (RL) using basis adaptation. We introduce a general framework for basis adaptation as {\em nonlinear separable least-squares value function approximation} based on finding Frechet gradients of an error function using variable projection functionals. We then present a scalable proximal gradient-based approach for basis adaptation using the recently proposed mirror-descent framework for RL. Unlike traditional temporal-difference (TD) methods for RL, mirror descent based RL methods undertake proximal gradient updates of weights in a dual space, which is linked together with the primal space using a Legendre transform involving the gradient of a strongly convex function. Mirror descent RL can be viewed as a proximal TD algorithm using Bregman divergence as the distance generating function. We present a new class of regularized proximal-gradient based TD methods, which combine feature selection through sparse L1 regularization and basis adaptation. Experimental results are provided to illustrate and validate the approach.


Backdoors to Normality for Disjunctive Logic Programs

AAAI Conferences

Over the last two decades, propositional satisfiability (S AT ) has become one of the most successful and widely applied techniques for the solution of NP-complete problems. The aim of this paper is to investigate theoretically how S AT can be utilized for the efficient solution of problems that are harder than NP or co-NP. In particular, we consider the fundamental reasoning problems in propositional disjunctive answer set programming (A SP ), B RAVE R EASONING and S KEPTICA R EASONING , which ask whether a given atom is contained in at least one or in all answer sets, respectively. Both problems are located at the second level of the Polynomial Hierarchy and thus assumed to be harder than NP or co-NP. One cannot transform these two reasoning problems into S AT in polynomial time, unless the Polynomial Hierarchy collapses. We show that certain structural aspects of disjunctive logic programs can be utilized to break through this complexity barrier, using new techniques from Parameterized Complexity. In particular, we exhibit transformations from B RAVE and S KEPTICAL R EASONING to S AT that run in time $ O (2^ k n^ 2 )$ where k is a structural parameter of the instance and n the input size. In other words, the reduction is fixed-parameter tractable for parameter k . As the parameter k we take the size of a smallest backdoor with respect to the class of normal (i.e., disjunction-free) programs. Such a backdoor is a set of atoms that when deleted makes the program normal. In consequence, the combinatorial explosion, which is expected when transforming a problem from the second level of the Polynomial Hierarchy to the first level, can now be confined to the parameter k , while the running time of the reduction is polynomial in the input size n , where the order of the polynomial is independent of k . We show that such a transformation is not possible if we consider backdoors with respect to tightness instead of normality. We think that our approach is applicable to many other hard combinatorial problems that lie beyond NP or co-NP, and thus significantly enlarge the applicability of SAT.


Exploring Disease Interactions Using Markov Networks

AAAI Conferences

Network medicine is an emerging paradigm for studying the co-occurrence between diseases. While diseases are often interlinked through complex patterns, most of the existing work in this area has focused on studying pairwise relationships between diseases. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art Markov network learning method to learn interactions between musculoskeletal disorders and cardiovascular diseases and compare this to pairwise approaches. Our experimental results confirm that the sophisticated structure learner produces more accurate models, which can help reveal interesting patterns in the co-occurrence of diseases.


Exploring Disease Interactions Using Markov Networks

AAAI Conferences

Network medicine is an emerging paradigm for studying the co-occurrence between diseases. While diseases are often interlinked through complex patterns, most of the existing work in this area has focused on studying pairwise relationships between diseases. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art Markov network learning method to learn interactions between musculoskeletal disorders and cardiovascular diseases and compare this to pairwise approaches. Our experimental results confirm that the sophisticated structure learner produces more accurate models, which can help reveal interesting patterns in the co-occurrence of diseases.


Exploring Disease Interactions Using Markov Networks

AAAI Conferences

Network medicine is an emerging paradigm for studying the co-occurrence between diseases. While diseases are often interlinked through complex patterns, most of the existing work in this area has focused on studying pairwise relationships between diseases. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art Markov network learning method to learn interactions between musculoskeletal disorders and cardiovascular diseases and compare this to pairwise approaches. Our experimental results confirm that the sophisticated structure learner produces more accurate models, which can help reveal interesting patterns in the co-occurrence of diseases.