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An Efficient Algorithm for Estimating State Sequences in Imprecise Hidden Markov Models
We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs or observations in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMMs). The uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its output, is represented by a set of probability mass functions instead of a single such mass function. We consider as best estimates for state sequences the maximal sequences for the posterior joint state model conditioned on the observed output sequence, associated with a gain function that is the indicator of the state sequence. This corresponds to and generalises finding the state sequence with the highest posterior probability in (precise-probabilistic) HMMs, thereby making our algorithm a generalisation of the one by Viterbi. We argue that the computational complexity of our algorithm is at worst quadratic in the length of the iHMM, cubic in the number of states, and essentially linear in the number of maximal state sequences. An important feature of our imprecise approach is that there may be more than one maximal sequence, typically in those instances where its precise-probabilistic counterpart is sensitive to the choice of prior. For binary iHMMs, we investigate experimentally how the number of maximal state sequences depends on the model parameters. We also present an application in optical character recognition, demonstrating that our algorithm can be usefully applied to robustify the inferences made by its precise-probabilistic counterpart.
Adaptive Reconfiguration Moves for Dirichlet Mixtures
Herlau, Tue, Mรธrup, Morten, Teh, Yee Whye, Schmidt, Mikkel N.
Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods are restricted to limited types of transitions and suffer from torpid mixing and low accept rates even for problems of modest size. We propose a method that considers a broader range of transitions that are close to equilibrium by exploiting multiple chains in parallel and using the past states adaptively to inform the proposal distribution. The method significantly improves on Gibbs and split-merge sampling as quantified using convergence diagnostics and acceptance rates. Adaptive MCMC methods which use past states to inform the proposal distribution has given rise to many ingenious sampling schemes for continuous problems and the present work can be seen as an important first step in bringing these benefits to partition-based problems
Bridging the gap between Legal Practitioners and Knowledge Engineers using semi-formal KR
Ramakrishna, Shashishekar, Paschke, Adrian
The use of Structured English as a computation independent knowledge representation format for non-technical users in business rules representation has been proposed in OMGs Semantics and Business Vocabulary Representation (SBVR). In the legal domain we face a similar problem. Formal representation languages, such as OASIS LegalRuleML and legal ontologies (LKIF, legal OWL2 ontologies etc.) support the technical knowledge engineer and the automated reasoning. But, they can be hardly used directly by the legal domain experts who do not have a computer science background. In this paper we adapt the SBVR Structured English approach for the legal domain and implement a proof-of-concept, called KR4IPLaw, which enables legal domain experts to represent their knowledge in Structured English in a computational independent and hence, for them, more usable way. The benefit of this approach is that the underlying pre-defined semantics of the Structured English approach makes transformations into formal languages such as OASIS LegalRuleML and OWL2 ontologies possible. We exemplify our approach in the domain of patent law.
Semantic Composition and Decomposition: From Recognition to Generation
Semantic composition is the task of understanding the meaning of text by composing the meanings of the individual words in the text. Semantic decomposition is the task of understanding the meaning of an individual word by decomposing it into various aspects (factors, constituents, components) that are latent in the meaning of the word. We take a distributional approach to semantics, in which a word is represented by a context vector. Much recent work has considered the problem of recognizing compositions and decompositions, but we tackle the more difficult generation problem. For simplicity, we focus on noun-modifier bigrams and noun unigrams. A test for semantic composition is, given context vectors for the noun and modifier in a noun-modifier bigram ("red salmon"), generate a noun unigram that is synonymous with the given bigram ("sockeye"). A test for semantic decomposition is, given a context vector for a noun unigram ("snifter"), generate a noun-modifier bigram that is synonymous with the given unigram ("brandy glass"). With a vocabulary of about 73,000 unigrams from WordNet, there are 73,000 candidate unigram compositions for a bigram and 5,300,000,000 (73,000 squared) candidate bigram decompositions for a unigram. We generate ranked lists of potential solutions in two passes. A fast unsupervised learning algorithm generates an initial list of candidates and then a slower supervised learning algorithm refines the list. We evaluate the candidate solutions by comparing them to WordNet synonym sets. For decomposition (unigram to bigram), the top 100 most highly ranked bigrams include a WordNet synonym of the given unigram 50.7% of the time. For composition (bigram to unigram), the top 100 most highly ranked unigrams include a WordNet synonym of the given bigram 77.8% of the time.
Efficient State-Space Inference of Periodic Latent Force Models
Reece, Steven, Roberts, Stephen, Ghosh, Siddhartha, Rogers, Alex, Jennings, Nicholas
Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially when closed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world problems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a new sparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency, as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic or near periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate one generative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generated from Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses these priors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings and show that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We also apply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are modelled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs. Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can reduce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of the nearest rival approach which is the resonator model.
Knowledge Base of an Expert System Used for Dyslalic Children Therapy
Schipor, Ovidiu-Andrei, Pentiuc, Stefan-Gheorghe, Schipor, Doina-Maria
In order to improve children speech therapy, we develop a Fuzzy Expert System based on a speech therapy guide. This guide, write in natural language, was formalized using fuzzy logic paradigm. In this manner we obtain a knowledge base with over 150 rules and 19 linguistic variables. All these researches, including expert system validation, are part of TERAPERS project.
Architecture of a Fuzzy Expert System Used for Dyslalic Children Therapy
Schipor, Ovidiu-Andrei, Pentiuc, Stefan-Gheorghe, Schipor, Maria-Doina
In this paper we present architecture of a fuzzy expert system used for therapy of dyslalic children. With fuzzy approach we can create a better model for speech therapist decisions. A software interface was developed for validation of the system. The main objectives of this task are: personalized therapy (the therapy must be in according with child's problems level, context and possibilities), speech therapist assistant (the expert system offer some suggestion regarding what exercises are better for a specific moment and from a specific child), (self) teaching (when system's conclusion is different that speech therapist's conclusion the last one must have the knowledge base change possibility).
Enhanced Partial Expansion A*
Goldenberg, M., Felner, A., Stern, R., Sharon, G., Sturtevant, N., Holte, R. C., Schaeffer, J.
When solving instances of problem domains that feature a large branching factor, A* may generate a large number of nodes whose cost is greater than the cost of the optimal solution. We designate such nodes as surplus. Generating surplus nodes and adding them to the OPEN list may dominate both time and memory of the search. A recently introduced variant of A* called Partial Expansion A* (PEA*) deals with the memory aspect of this problem. When expanding a node n, PEA* generates all of its children and puts into OPEN only the children with f = f (n). n is re-inserted in the OPEN list with the f -cost of the best discarded child. This guarantees that surplus nodes are not inserted into OPEN. In this paper, we present a novel variant of A* called Enhanced Partial Expansion A* (EPEA*) that advances the idea of PEA* to address the time aspect. Given a priori domain- and heuristic- specific knowledge, EPEA* generates only the nodes with f = f(n). Although EPEA* is not always applicable or practical, we study several variants of EPEA*, which make it applicable to a large number of domains and heuristics. In particular, the ideas of EPEA* are applicable to IDA* and to the domains where pattern databases are traditionally used. Experimental studies show significant improvements in run-time and memory performance for several standard benchmark applications. We provide several theoretical studies to facilitate an understanding of the new algorithm.
The Computational Impact of Partial Votes on Strategic Voting
In many real world elections, agents are not required to rank all candidates. We study three of the most common methods used to modify voting rules to deal with such partial votes. These methods modify scoring rules (like the Borda count), elimination style rules (like single transferable vote) and rules based on the tournament graph (like Copeland) respectively. We argue that with an elimination style voting rule like single transferable vote, partial voting does not change the situations where strategic voting is possible. However, with scoring rules and rules based on the tournament graph, partial voting can increase the situations where strategic voting is possible. As a consequence, the computational complexity of computing a strategic vote can change. For example, with Borda count, the complexity of computing a strategic vote can decrease or stay the same depending on how we score partial votes.
Supervised Dictionary Learning by a Variational Bayesian Group Sparse Nonnegative Matrix Factorization
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with group sparsity constraints is formulated as a probabilistic graphical model and, assuming some observed data have been generated by the model, a feasible variational Bayesian algorithm is derived for learning model parameters. When used in a supervised learning scenario, NMF is most often utilized as an unsupervised feature extractor followed by classification in the obtained feature subspace. Having mapped the class labels to a more general concept of groups which underlie sparsity of the coefficients, what the proposed group sparse NMF model allows is incorporating class label information to find low dimensional label-driven dictionaries which not only aim to represent the data faithfully, but are also suitable for class discrimination. Experiments performed in face recognition and facial expression recognition domains point to advantages of classification in such label-driven feature subspaces over classification in feature subspaces obtained in an unsupervised manner.