In this paper we study the problem of minimizing the average of a large number ($n$) of smooth convex loss functions. We propose a new method, S2GD (Semi-Stochastic Gradient Descent), which runs for one or several epochs in each of which a single full gradient and a random number of stochastic gradients is computed, following a geometric law. The total work needed for the method to output an $\varepsilon$-accurate solution in expectation, measured in the number of passes over data, or equivalently, in units equivalent to the computation of a single gradient of the loss, is $O((\kappa/n)\log(1/\varepsilon))$, where $\kappa$ is the condition number. This is achieved by running the method for $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ epochs, with a single gradient evaluation and $O(\kappa)$ stochastic gradient evaluations in each. The SVRG method of Johnson and Zhang arises as a special case. If our method is limited to a single epoch only, it needs to evaluate at most $O((\kappa/\varepsilon)\log(1/\varepsilon))$ stochastic gradients. In contrast, SVRG requires $O(\kappa/\varepsilon^2)$ stochastic gradients. To illustrate our theoretical results, S2GD only needs the workload equivalent to about 2.1 full gradient evaluations to find an $10^{-6}$-accurate solution for a problem with $n=10^9$ and $\kappa=10^3$.

Interpersonal relations are fickle, with close friendships often dissolving into enmity. In this work, we explore linguistic cues that presage such transitions by studying dyadic interactions in an online strategy game where players form alliances and break those alliances through betrayal. We characterize friendships that are unlikely to last and examine temporal patterns that foretell betrayal. We reveal that subtle signs of imminent betrayal are encoded in the conversational patterns of the dyad, even if the victim is not aware of the relationship's fate. In particular, we find that lasting friendships exhibit a form of balance that manifests itself through language. In contrast, sudden changes in the balance of certain conversational attributes---such as positive sentiment, politeness, or focus on future planning---signal impending betrayal.

Restricted Boltzmann machines are undirected neural networks which have been shown to be effective in many applications, including serving as initializations for training deep multi-layer neural networks. One of the main reasons for their success is the existence of efficient and practical stochastic algorithms, such as contrastive divergence, for unsupervised training. We propose an alternative deterministic iterative procedure based on an improved mean field method from statistical physics known as the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer approach. We demonstrate that our algorithm provides performance equal to, and sometimes superior to, persistent contrastive divergence, while also providing a clear and easy to evaluate objective function. We believe that this strategy can be easily generalized to other models as well as to more accurate higher-order approximations, paving the way for systematic improvements in training Boltzmann machines with hidden units.

The latent block model (LBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool to describe interactions between node sets in bipartite networks, but it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between nodes in unknown classes. In this paper we propose a non stationary temporal extension of the LBM that clusters simultaneously the two node sets of a bipartite network and constructs classes of time intervals on which interactions are stationary. The number of clusters as well as the membership to classes are obtained by maximizing the exact complete-data integrated likelihood relying on a greedy search approach. Experiments on simulated and real data are carried out in order to assess the proposed methodology.

Recommendation systems have been integrated into the majority of large online systems to filter and rank information according to user profiles. It thus influences the way users interact with the system and, as a consequence, bias the evaluation of the performance of a recommendation algorithm computed using historical data (via offline evaluation). This paper presents a new application of a weighted offline evaluation to reduce this bias for collaborative filtering algorithms.

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to approximate the posterior when the likelihood is not Gaussian and how to estimate covariance function parameter posteriors. This paper simultaneously addresses these, using a variational approximation to the posterior which is sparse in support of the function but otherwise free-form. The result is a Hybrid Monte-Carlo sampling scheme which allows for a non-Gaussian approximation over the function values and covariance parameters simultaneously, with efficient computations based on inducing-point sparse GPs. Code to replicate each experiment in this paper will be available shortly.

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization remains possible using the MAPE instead of the MAE.

We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country $i$ took action $a$ toward country $j$ at time $t$"---known as dyadic events---in order to form and test theories of international relations. We represent these event data as a tensor of counts and develop Bayesian Poisson tensor factorization to infer a low-dimensional, interpretable representation of their salient patterns. We demonstrate that our model's predictive performance is better than that of standard non-negative tensor factorization methods. We also provide a comparison of our variational updates to their maximum likelihood counterparts. In doing so, we identify a better way to form point estimates of the latent factors than that typically used in Bayesian Poisson matrix factorization. Finally, we showcase our model as an exploratory analysis tool for political scientists. We show that the inferred latent factor matrices capture interpretable multilateral relations that both conform to and inform our knowledge of international affairs.

We consider the problem of online combinatorial optimization under semi-bandit feedback, where a learner has to repeatedly pick actions from a combinatorial decision set in order to minimize the total losses associated with its decisions. After making each decision, the learner observes the losses associated with its action, but not other losses. For this problem, there are several learning algorithms that guarantee that the learner's expected regret grows as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ with the number of rounds $T$. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that improves this scaling to $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{{L_T^*}})$, where $L_T^*$ is the total loss of the best action. Our algorithm is among the first to achieve such guarantees in a partial-feedback scheme, and the first one to do so in a combinatorial setting.

Kernel methods give powerful, flexible, and theoretically grounded approaches to solving many problems in machine learning. The standard approach, however, requires pairwise evaluations of a kernel function, which can lead to scalability issues for very large datasets. Rahimi and Recht (2007) suggested a popular approach to handling this problem, known as random Fourier features. The quality of this approximation, however, is not well understood. We improve the uniform error bound of that paper, as well as giving novel understandings of the embedding's variance, approximation error, and use in some machine learning methods. We also point out that surprisingly, of the two main variants of those features, the more widely used is strictly higher-variance for the Gaussian kernel and has worse bounds.