Zero-inflated datasets, which have an excess of zero outputs, are commonly encountered in problems such as climate or rare event modelling. Conventional machine learning approaches tend to overestimate the non-zeros leading to poor performance. We propose a novel model family of zero-inflated Gaussian processes (ZiGP) for such zero-inflated datasets, produced by sparse kernels through learning a latent probit Gaussian process that can zero out kernel rows and columns whenever the signal is absent. The ZiGPs are particularly useful for making the powerful Gaussian process networks more interpretable. We introduce sparse GP networks where variable-order latent modelling is achieved through sparse mixing signals. We derive the nontrivial stochastic variational inference tractably for scalable learning of the sparse kernels in both models. The novel output-sparse approach improves both prediction of zero-inflated data and inter-pretability of latent mixing models.

In this paper, we propose to tackle the problem of reducing discrepancies between multiple domains referred to as multi-source domain adaptation and consider it under the target shift assumption: in all domains we aim to solve a classification problem with the same output classes, but with labels' proportions differing across them. We design a method based on optimal transport, a theory that is gaining momentum to tackle adaptation problems in machine learning due to its efficiency in aligning probability distributions. Our method performs multi-source adaptation and target shift correction simultaneously by learning the class probabilities of the unlabeled target sample and the coupling allowing to align two (or more) probability distributions. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data related to satellite image segmentation task show the superiority of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art.

Period estimation is one of the central topics in astronomical time series analysis, where data is often unevenly sampled. Especially challenging are studies of stellar magnetic cycles, as there the periods looked for are of the order of the same length than the datasets themselves. The datasets often contain trends, the origin of which is either a real long-term cycle or an instrumental effect, but these effects cannot be reliably separated, while they can lead to erroneous period determinations if not properly handled. In this study we aim at developing a method that can handle the trends properly, and by performing extensive set of testing, we show that this is the optimal procedure when contrasted with methods that do not include the trend directly to the model. The effect of the form of the noise (whether constant or heteroscedastic) on the results is also investigated. We introduce a Bayesian Generalised Lomb-Scargle Periodogram with Trend (BGLST), which is a probabilistic linear regression model using Gaussian priors for the coefficients and uniform prior for the frequency parameter. We show, using synthetic data, that when there is no prior information on whether and to what extent the true model of the data contains a linear trend, the introduced BGLST method is preferable to the methods which either detrend the data or leave the data untrended before fitting the periodic model. Whether to use noise with different than constant variance in the model depends on the density of the data sampling as well as on the true noise type of the process.

One of the most interesting features of Bayesian optimization for direct policy search is that it can leverage priors (e.g., from simulation or from previous tasks) to accelerate learning on a robot. In this paper, we are interested in situations for which several priors exist but we do not know in advance which one fits best the current situation. We tackle this problem by introducing a novel acquisition function, called Most Likely Expected Improvement (MLEI), that combines the likelihood of the priors and the expected improvement. We evaluate this new acquisition function on a transfer learning task for a 5-DOF planar arm and on a possibly damaged, 6-legged robot that has to learn to walk on flat ground and on stairs, with priors corresponding to different stairs and different kinds of damages. Our results show that MLEI effectively identifies and exploits the priors, even when there is no obvious match between the current situations and the priors.

The most data-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in robotics are model-based policy search algorithms, which alternate between learning a dynamical model of the robot and optimizing a policy to maximize the expected return given the model and its uncertainties. Among the few proposed approaches, the recently introduced Black-DROPS algorithm exploits a black-box optimization algorithm to achieve both high data-efficiency and good computation times when several cores are used; nevertheless, like all model-based policy search approaches, Black-DROPS does not scale to high dimensional state/action spaces. In this paper, we introduce a new model learning procedure in Black-DROPS that leverages parameterized black-box priors to (1) scale up to high-dimensional systems, and (2) be robust to large inaccuracies of the prior information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with the "pendubot" swing-up task in simulation and with a physical hexapod robot (48D state space, 18D action space) that has to walk forward as fast as possible. The results show that our new algorithm is more data-efficient than previous model-based policy search algorithms (with and without priors) and that it can allow a physical 6-legged robot to learn new gaits in only 16 to 30 seconds of interaction time.

We propose a fast method with statistical guarantees for learning an exponential family density model where the natural parameter is in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and may be infinite-dimensional. The model is learned by fitting the derivative of the log density, the score, thus avoiding the need to compute a normalization constant. Our approach improves the computational efficiency of an earlier solution by using a low-rank, Nystr\"om-like solution. The new solution retains the consistency and convergence rates of the full-rank solution (exactly in Fisher distance, and nearly in other distances), with guarantees on the degree of cost and storage reduction. We evaluate the method in experiments on density estimation and in the construction of an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. Compared to an existing score learning approach using a denoising autoencoder, our estimator is empirically more data-efficient when estimating the score, runs faster, and has fewer parameters (which can be tuned in a principled and interpretable way), in addition to providing statistical guarantees.

We present a novel condition, which we term the net- work nullspace property, which ensures accurate recovery of graph signals representing massive network-structured datasets from few signal values. The network nullspace property couples the cluster structure of the underlying network-structure with the geometry of the sampling set. Our results can be used to design efficient sampling strategies based on the network topology.

Cloud computing involves complex technical and economical systems and interactions. This brings about various challenges, two of which are: (1) debugging and control of computing systems with the help of sandbox experiments, and (2) prediction of the cost of "spot" resources for decision making of cloud clients. In this paper, we formalize debugging by counterfactual probabilities and control by post-(soft-)interventional probabilities. We prove that counterfactuals can approximately be calculated from a "stochastic" graphical causal model (while they are originally defined only for "deterministic" functional causal models), and based on this sketch an approach to address problem (1). To address problem (2), we formalize bidding by post-(soft-)interventional probabilities and present a simple mathematical result on approximate integration of "incomplete" conditional probability distributions. We show how this can be used by cloud clients to trade off privacy against predictability of the outcome of their bidding actions in a toy scenario. We report experiments on simulated and real data.

In a new article published in the journal Conservation Biology, scientists from the University of Helsinki, Digital Geography Lab, argue that methods from artificial intelligence can be used to help monitor the illegal wildlife trade on social media. Dr. Enrico Di Minin, a conservation scientist at the University of Helsinki, who leads an interdisciplinary research group where methods from artificial intelligence are being developed and used to investigate the supply chain of the illegal wildlife trade in an innovative and novel way, stresses the importance of such novel methods to identify relevant data on the illegal wildlife trade from social media platforms. "Currently, the lack of tools for efficient monitoring of high-volume social media data limits the capability of law enforcement agencies to curb illegal wildlife trade," says Dr. Di Minin "Processing such data manually is inefficient and time consuming, but methods from artificial intelligence, such as machine-learning algorithms, can be used to automatically identify relevant information. Despite their potential, approaches from artificial intelligence are still rarely used in addressing the biodiversity crisis," he says. Many social media platforms provide an application programming interface that allows researchers to access user-generated text, images and videos, as well as the accompanying metadata, such as where and when the content was uploaded, and connections between the users.

The use of machine learning in building investment strategies is limited by data and fails to adapt to changes that humans could otherwise quickly pick up, argued quants at a debate held in London on March 7. Six experts from the industry participated in a Risk.net The debate asked whether machine learning and artificial intelligence are a revolutionary set of tools that will fundamentally change investment strategies.