Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing benchmarks. To address these challenges, we propose CausalCompass, a flexible and extensible benchmark suite designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery (TSCD) methods under violations of modeling assumptions. To demonstrate the practical utility of CausalCompass, we conduct extensive benchmarking of representative TSCD algorithms across eight assumption-violation scenarios. Our experimental results indicate that no single method consistently attains optimal performance across all settings. Nevertheless, the methods exhibiting superior overall performance across diverse scenarios are almost invariably deep learning-based approaches. We further provide hyperparameter sensitivity analyses to deepen the understanding of these findings. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that NTS-NOTEARS relies heavily on standardized preprocessing in practice, performing poorly in the vanilla setting but exhibiting strong performance after standardization. Finally, our work aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of TSCD methods under assumption violations, thereby facilitating their broader adoption in real-world applications. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huiyang-yi/CausalCompass.

Zero-shot diffusion posterior sampling offers a flexible framework for inverse problems by accommodating arbitrary degradation operators at test time, but incurs high computational cost due to repeated likelihood-guided updates. In contrast, previous amortized diffusion approaches enable fast inference by replacing likelihood-based sampling with implicit inference models, but at the expense of robustness to unseen degradations. We introduce an amortization strategy for diffusion posterior sampling that preserves explicit likelihood guidance by amortizing the inner optimization problems arising in variational diffusion posterior sampling. This accelerates inference for in-distribution degradations while maintaining robustness to previously unseen operators, thereby improving the trade-off between efficiency and flexibility in diffusion-based inverse problems.

Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at any time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring.

ABSTRACT Subjective ratings contain inherent noise that limits the model-human correlation, but this reliability issue is rarely quantified. In this paper, we present ρ-Perfect, a practical estimation of the highest achievable correlation of a model on subjectively rated datasets. We define ρ-Perfect to be the correlation between a perfect predictor and human ratings, and derive an estimate of the value based on heteroscedastic noise scenarios, a common occurrence in subjectively rated datasets. We show that ρ-Perfect squared estimates test-retest correlation and use this to validate the estimate. We demonstrate the use of ρ-Perfect on a speech quality dataset and show how the measure can distinguish between model limitations and data quality issues.

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice for ``easy'' sequences. We show that a variant of NormalHedge enjoys a second-order $ε$-quantile regret bound of $O\big(\sqrt{V_T \log(V_T/ε)}\big) $ when $V_T > \log N$, where $V_T$ is the cumulative second moment of instantaneous per-expert regret averaged with respect to a natural distribution determined by the algorithm. The algorithm is motivated by a continuous time limit using Stochastic Differential Equations. The discrete time analysis uses self-concordance techniques.

Wepresent an orchestration of the computations such that theoutcome isaccompanied withaproofofcorrectness thatcanbeverifiedwith substantially less computational resources than it takes to run the computations fromscratch withstate-of-the-art algorithms. Specifically,weadopt analgebraic proof system developed incomputational complexity theory,inwhich theproof is represented by a polynomial; evaluating the polynomial at a random point amounts to a verification of the proof with probabilistic guarantees.