Wokingham
Do we actually understand the impact of renewables on electricity prices? A causal inference approach
Cacciarelli, Davide, Pinson, Pierre, Panagiotopoulos, Filip, Dixon, David, Blaxland, Lizzie
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical to design policies and market interventions that ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy systems. However, identifying causal effects from observational data is a major challenge, requiring innovative causal inference approaches that go beyond conventional regression analysis only. We build upon the state of the art by developing and applying a local partially linear double machine learning approach. Its application yields the first robust causal evidence on the distinct and non-linear effects of wind and solar power generation on UK wholesale electricity prices, revealing key insights that have eluded previous analyses. We find that, over 2018-2024, wind power generation has a U-shaped effect on prices: at low penetration levels, a 1 GWh increase in energy generation reduces prices by up to 7 GBP/MWh, but this effect gets close to none at mid-penetration levels (20-30%) before intensifying again. Solar power places substantial downward pressure on prices at very low penetration levels (up to 9 GBP/MWh per 1 GWh increase in energy generation), though its impact weakens quite rapidly. We also uncover a critical trend where the price-reducing effects of both wind and solar power have become more pronounced over time (from 2018 to 2024), highlighting their growing influence on electricity markets amid rising penetration. Our study provides both novel analysis approaches and actionable insights to guide policymakers in appraising the way renewables impact electricity markets.
CHILLI: A data context-aware perturbation method for XAI
Anwar, Saif, Griffiths, Nathan, Bhalerao, Abhir, Popham, Thomas
The trustworthiness of Machine Learning (ML) models can be difficult to assess, but is critical in high-risk or ethically sensitive applications. Many models are treated as a `black-box' where the reasoning or criteria for a final decision is opaque to the user. To address this, some existing Explainable AI (XAI) approaches approximate model behaviour using perturbed data. However, such methods have been criticised for ignoring feature dependencies, with explanations being based on potentially unrealistic data. We propose a novel framework, CHILLI, for incorporating data context into XAI by generating contextually aware perturbations, which are faithful to the training data of the base model being explained. This is shown to improve both the soundness and accuracy of the explanations.
Testing autonomous vehicles and AI: perspectives and challenges from cybersecurity, transparency, robustness and fairness
Llorca, David Fernández, Hamon, Ronan, Junklewitz, Henrik, Grosse, Kathrin, Kunze, Lars, Seiniger, Patrick, Swaim, Robert, Reed, Nick, Alahi, Alexandre, Gómez, Emilia, Sánchez, Ignacio, Kriston, Akos
Artificial Intelligence (AI) plays a critical role in the advancement of autonomous driving. It is likely the main facilitator of high levels of automation, as there are certain technical issues that only seem to be resolvable through advanced AI systems, particularly those based on machine learning. However, the introduction of AI systems in the realm of driver assistance systems and automated driving systems creates new uncertainties due to specific characteristics of AI that make it a distinct technology from traditional systems developed in the field of motor vehicles. Some of these characteristics include unpredictability, opacity, self and continuous learning and lack of causality [1], among other horizontal features such as autonomy, complexity, overfitting and bias. As an example of the specificity that the introduction of AI systems in vehicles entails, the UNECE's Working Party on Automated/Autonomous and Connected Vehicles (GRVA) has been specifically discussing the impact of AI on vehicle regulations since 2020 [2].
Discovery and Recognition of Formula Concepts using Machine Learning
Scharpf, Philipp, Schubotz, Moritz, Cohl, Howard S., Breitinger, Corinna, Gipp, Bela
Citation-based Information Retrieval (IR) methods for scientific documents have proven effective for IR applications, such as Plagiarism Detection or Literature Recommender Systems in academic disciplines that use many references. In science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, researchers often employ mathematical concepts through formula notation to refer to prior knowledge. Our long-term goal is to generalize citation-based IR methods and apply this generalized method to both classical references and mathematical concepts. In this paper, we suggest how mathematical formulas could be cited and define a Formula Concept Retrieval task with two subtasks: Formula Concept Discovery (FCD) and Formula Concept Recognition (FCR). While FCD aims at the definition and exploration of a 'Formula Concept' that names bundled equivalent representations of a formula, FCR is designed to match a given formula to a prior assigned unique mathematical concept identifier. We present machine learning-based approaches to address the FCD and FCR tasks. We then evaluate these approaches on a standardized test collection (NTCIR arXiv dataset). Our FCD approach yields a precision of 68% for retrieving equivalent representations of frequent formulas and a recall of 72% for extracting the formula name from the surrounding text. FCD and FCR enable the citation of formulas within mathematical documents and facilitate semantic search and question answering as well as document similarity assessments for plagiarism detection or recommender systems.
London is set for driverless car roll-out – so what comes next?
THE French Riviera is lovely at this time of year. The steering wheel spins to take the car round a bend – but my hands stay in my lap. And since there's no need to keep my eyes on the road, I'm free to enjoy the beachfront view. An oddly pixelated man with a two-dimensional windsurfer under his arm gives me the eye. Sadly, my Riviera is being projected on a large wrap-around screen in a room-sized simulator in Wokingham, UK.
Exploiting Multi-Modal Interactions: A Unified Framework
Li, Ming (Nanjing University) | Xue, Xiao-Bing (Nanjing University) | Zhou, Zhi-Hua (Nanjing University)
Given an imagebase with tagged images, four types of tasks an be executed, i.e., content-based image retrieval, image annotation, text-based image retrieval, and query expansion. For any of these tasks the similarity on the concerned type of objects is essential. In this paper, we propose a framework to tackle these four tasks from a unified view. The essence of the framework is to estimate similarities by exploiting the interactions between objects of different modality. Experiments show that the proposed method can improve similarity estimation, and based on the improved similarity estimation, some simple methods can achieve better performances than some state-of-the-art techniques.
Toward Conversational Human-Computer Interaction
Allen, James F., Byron, Donna K., Dzikovska, Myroslava, Ferguson, George, Galescu, Lucian, Stent, Amanda
The belief that humans will be able to interact with computers in conversational speech has long been a favorite subject in science fiction, reflecting the persistent belief that spoken dialogue would be the most natural and powerful user interface to computers. With recent improvements in computer technology and in speech and language processing, such systems are starting to appear feasible. There are significant technical problems that still need to be solved before speech-driven interfaces become truly conversational. This article describes the results of a 10-year effort building robust spoken dialogue systems at the University of Rochester.