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DUMB: A Benchmark for Smart Evaluation of Dutch Models

de Vries, Wietse, Wieling, Martijn, Nissim, Malvina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the Dutch Model Benchmark: DUMB. The benchmark includes a diverse set of datasets for low-, medium- and high-resource tasks. The total set of nine tasks includes four tasks that were previously not available in Dutch. Instead of relying on a mean score across tasks, we propose Relative Error Reduction (RER), which compares the DUMB performance of language models to a strong baseline which can be referred to in the future even when assessing different sets of language models. Through a comparison of 14 pre-trained language models (mono- and multi-lingual, of varying sizes), we assess the internal consistency of the benchmark tasks, as well as the factors that likely enable high performance. Our results indicate that current Dutch monolingual models under-perform and suggest training larger Dutch models with other architectures and pre-training objectives. At present, the highest performance is achieved by DeBERTaV3 (large), XLM-R (large) and mDeBERTaV3 (base). In addition to highlighting best strategies for training larger Dutch models, DUMB will foster further research on Dutch. A public leaderboard is available at https://dumbench.nl.


IntelliGraphs: Datasets for Benchmarking Knowledge Graph Generation

Thanapalasingam, Thiviyan, van Krieken, Emile, Bloem, Peter, Groth, Paul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) models are used to learn continuous representations of entities and relations. A key task in the literature is predicting missing links between entities. However, Knowledge Graphs are not just sets of links but also have semantics underlying their structure. Semantics is crucial in several downstream tasks, such as query answering or reasoning. We introduce the subgraph inference task, where a model has to generate likely and semantically valid subgraphs. We propose IntelliGraphs, a set of five new Knowledge Graph datasets. The IntelliGraphs datasets contain subgraphs with semantics expressed in logical rules for evaluating subgraph inference. We also present the dataset generator that produced the synthetic datasets. We designed four novel baseline models, which include three models based on traditional KGEs. We evaluate their expressiveness and show that these models cannot capture the semantics. We believe this benchmark will encourage the development of machine learning models that emphasize semantic understanding.


Engaging with Disengagement

#artificialintelligence

Disengagement is a situation when the vehicle returns to manual control or the driver feels the need to take back the wheel from the AV decision system. I came across this news article a while ago about a man dozing off at the wheel after switching his Tesla to autonomous mode, and being criminally charged soon after because the vehicle was speeding unbeknownst to him. A quick search revealed several such reports on drivers being charged for unlawful practices in semi-autonomous vehicles. This got me thinking: how will traffic laws change as we slowly enter the autonomous vehicle era, and in general, the AI-driven 21st century? Most importantly, this brings up the question of whom to blame when dealing with adverse human-robot interactions. These aren't new questions – only questions to which new perspectives can continually be added until a final course of action is decided. While I actively try to avoid the philosophical and ethical underpinnings of the matter, I will cover the current progress in autonomous vehicle technology, trends and limitations of today's autonomous vehicle policy, and possible directions to better facilitate the transition to autonomous vehicles around the globe. The last decade or so has been a very exciting time in the self-driving vehicle space.


Statistical post-processing of wind speed forecasts using convolutional neural networks

Veldkamp, Simon, Whan, Kirien, Dirksen, Sjoerd, Schmeits, Maurice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current statistical post-processing methods for probabilistic weather forecasting are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this paper we incorporate spatial wind speed information by using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and obtain probabilistic wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands for 48 hours ahead, based on KNMI's Harmonie-Arome NWP model. The CNNs are shown to have higher Brier skill scores for medium to higher wind speeds, as well as a better continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), than fully connected neural networks and quantile regression forests.


Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance without local telemetry: a generalized model using satellite data

Lago, Jesus, De Brabandere, Karel, De Ridder, Fjo, De Schutter, Bart

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g. In this context, as solar generators are geographically dispersed and ground measurements are not always easy to obtain, it is very important to have general models that can predict solar irradiance without the need of local data. In this paper, a model that can perform short-term forecasting of solar irradiance in any general location without the need of ground measurements is proposed. To do so, the model considers satellite-based measurements and weather-based forecasts, and employs a deep neural network structure that is able to generalize across locations; particularly, the network is trained only using a small subset of sites where ground data is available, and the model is able to generalize to a much larger number of locations where ground data does not exist. As a case study, 25 locations in The Netherlands are considered and the proposed model is compared against four local models that are individually trained for each location using ground measurements. Despite the general nature of the model, it is shown show that the proposed model is equal or better than the local models: when comparing the average performance across all the locations and prediction horizons, the proposed model obtains a 31.31% Introduction With the increasing integration of renewable sources into the electrical grid, accurate forecasting of renewable source generation has become one of the most important challenges across several applications. Among them, balancing the electrical grid via activation of reserves is arguably one of the most critical ones to ensure a stable system. In particular, due to their intermittent and unpredictable nature, the more renewables are integrated, the more complex the grid management becomes [1, 2]. This is the postprint of the article: Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance without local telemetry: a generalized model using satellite data, Solar Energy 173 (2018), 566-577 . Corresponding author Email address: j.lagogarcia@tudelft.nl (Jesus Lago) In particular, in addition to activation of reserves to manage the grid stability, short-term forecasts of solar irradiance are paramount for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, short-term power trading, peak load matching, scheduling of power systems, congestion management, and cost reduction [2-4]. Solar irradiance forecasting The forecasting of solar irradiance can be typically divided between methods for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and methods for direct normal irradiance (DNI) [5], with the latter being a component of the GHI (together with the diffuse solar irradiance). As in this work GHI is forecasted, [5] should be used for a complete review on methods for DNI.