Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Western District


Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.


Co-Creative Learning via Metropolis-Hastings Interaction between Humans and AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose co-creative learning as a novel paradigm where humans and AI, i.e., biological and artificial agents, mutually integrate their partial perceptual information and knowledge to construct shared external representations, a process we interpret as symbol emergence. Unlike traditional AI teaching based on unilateral knowledge transfer, this addresses the challenge of integrating information from inherently different modalities. We empirically test this framework using a human-AI interaction model based on the Metropolis-Hastings naming game (MHNG), a decentralized Bayesian inference mechanism. In an online experiment, 69 participants played a joint attention naming game (JA-NG) with one of three computer agent types (MH-based, always-accept, or always-reject) under partial observability. Results show that human-AI pairs with an MH-based agent significantly improved categorization accuracy through interaction and achieved stronger convergence toward a shared sign system. Furthermore, human acceptance behavior aligned closely with the MH-derived acceptance probability. These findings provide the first empirical evidence for co-creative learning emerging in human-AI dyads via MHNG-based interaction. This suggests a promising path toward symbiotic AI systems that learn with humans, rather than from them, by dynamically aligning perceptual experiences, opening a new venue for symbiotic AI alignment.


A Game-Theoretic Negotiation Framework for Cross-Cultural Consensus in LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing prevalence of large language models (LLMs) is influencing global value systems. However, these models frequently exhibit a pronounced WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) cultural bias due to lack of attention to minority values. This monocultural perspective may reinforce dominant values and marginalize diverse cultural viewpoints, posing challenges for the development of equitable and inclusive AI systems. In this work, we introduce a systematic framework designed to boost fair and robust cross-cultural consensus among LLMs. We model consensus as a Nash Equilibrium and employ a game-theoretic negotiation method based on Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) to simulate an organized cross-cultural negotiation process. To evaluate this approach, we construct regional cultural agents using data transformed from the World Values Survey (WVS). Beyond the conventional model-level evaluation method, We further propose two quantitative metrics, Perplexity-based Acceptence and Values Self-Consistency, to assess consensus outcomes. Experimental results indicate that our approach generates consensus of higher quality while ensuring more balanced compromise compared to baselines. Overall, it mitigates WEIRD bias by guiding agents toward convergence through fair and gradual negotiation steps.


New AI test can predict which men will benefit from prostate cancer drug

The Guardian

Doctors have developed an artificial intelligence tool that can predict which men with prostate cancer will benefit from a drug that halves the risk of dying. Abiraterone has been described as a "gamechanger" treatment for the disease, which is the most common form of cancer in men in more than 100 countries. It has already helped hundreds of thousands with advanced prostate cancer to live longer. But some countries, including England, have stopped short of offering the "spectacular" drug more widely to men whose disease has not spread. Now a team from the US, UK and Switzerland have built an AI test that shows which men would most likely benefit from abiraterone. The "exciting" breakthrough will enable healthcare systems to roll out the drug to more men, and spare others unnecessary treatment.


A Computational Model of Inclusive Pedagogy: From Understanding to Application

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human education transcends mere knowledge transfer, it relies on co-adaptation dynamics -- the mutual adjustment of teaching and learning strategies between agents. Despite its centrality, computational models of co-adaptive teacher-student interactions (T-SI) remain underdeveloped. We argue that this gap impedes Educational Science in testing and scaling contextual insights across diverse settings, and limits the potential of Machine Learning systems, which struggle to emulate and adaptively support human learning processes. To address this, we present a computational T-SI model that integrates contextual insights on human education into a testable framework. We use the model to evaluate diverse T-SI strategies in a realistic synthetic classroom setting, simulating student groups with unequal access to sensory information. Results show that strategies incorporating co-adaptation principles (e.g., bidirectional agency) outperform unilateral approaches (i.e., where only the teacher or the student is active), improving the learning outcomes for all learning types. Beyond the testing and scaling of context-dependent educational insights, our model enables hypothesis generation in controlled yet adaptable environments. This work bridges non-computational theories of human education with scalable, inclusive AI in Education systems, providing a foundation for equitable technologies that dynamically adapt to learner needs.


Comparative Analysis of Image, Video, and Audio Classifiers for Automated News Video Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

News videos require efficient content organisation and retrieval systems, but their unstructured nature poses significant challenges for automated processing. This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of image, video, and audio classifiers for automated news video segmentation. This work presents the development and evaluation of multiple deep learning approaches, including ResNet, ViViT, AST, and multimodal architectures, to classify five distinct segment types: advertisements, stories, studio scenes, transitions, and visualisations. Using a custom-annotated dataset of 41 news videos comprising 1,832 scene clips, our experiments demonstrate that image-based classifiers achieve superior performance (84.34\% accuracy) compared to more complex temporal models. Notably, the ResNet architecture outperformed state-of-the-art video classifiers while requiring significantly fewer computational resources. Binary classification models achieved high accuracy for transitions (94.23\%) and advertisements (92.74\%). These findings advance the understanding of effective architectures for news video segmentation and provide practical insights for implementing automated content organisation systems in media applications. These include media archiving, personalised content delivery, and intelligent video search.


Do Chains-of-Thoughts of Large Language Models Suffer from Hallucinations, Cognitive Biases, or Phobias in Bayesian Reasoning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning to reason and carefully explain arguments is central to students' cognitive, mathematical, and computational thinking development. This is particularly challenging in problems under uncertainty and in Bayesian reasoning. With the new generation of large language models (LLMs) capable of reasoning using Chain-of-Thought (CoT), there is an excellent opportunity to learn with them as they explain their reasoning through a dialogue with their artificial internal voice. It is an engaging and excellent opportunity to learn Bayesian reasoning. Furthermore, given that different LLMs sometimes arrive at opposite solutions, CoT generates opportunities for deep learning by detailed comparisons of reasonings. However, unlike humans, we found that they do not autonomously explain using ecologically valid strategies like natural frequencies, whole objects, and embodied heuristics. This is unfortunate, as these strategies help humans avoid critical mistakes and have proven pedagogical value in Bayesian reasoning. In order to overcome these biases and aid understanding and learning, we included prompts that induce LLMs to use these strategies. We found that LLMs with CoT incorporate them but not consistently. They show persistent biases towards symbolic reasoning and avoidance or phobia of ecologically valid strategies.


Climate land use and other drivers impacts on island ecosystem services: a global review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of papers on the climate change-islands-ecosystem services topic worldwide. Potential inclusion of land use changes and other drivers of impacts on ecosystem services were sequentially also recorded. The study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change, land use change, and other non-climatic driver changes on island ecosystem services. Explanatory variables examined were divided into two categories: environmental variables and methodological ones. Environmental variables include sea zone geographic location, ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate, land use, other driver variables, Methodological variables include consideration of policy interventions, uncertainty assessment, cumulative effects of climate change, synergistic effects of climate change with land use change and other anthropogenic and environmental drivers, and the diversity of variables used in the analysis. Machine learning and statistical methods were used to analyze their effects on island ecosystem services. Negative climate change impacts on ecosystem services are better quantified by land use change or other non-climatic driver variables than by climate variables. The synergy of land use together with climate changes is modulating the impact outcome and critical for a better impact assessment. Analyzed together, there is little evidence of more pronounced for a specific sea zone, ecosystem, or ecosystem service. Climate change impacts may be underestimated due to the use of a single climate variable deployed in most studies. Policy interventions exhibit low classification accuracy in quantifying impacts indicating insufficient efficacy or integration in the studies.


Semantic Web and Creative AI -- A Technical Report from ISWS 2023

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The International Semantic Web Research School (ISWS) is a week-long intensive program designed to immerse participants in the field. This document reports a collaborative effort performed by ten teams of students, each guided by a senior researcher as their mentor, attending ISWS 2023. Each team provided a different perspective to the topic of creative AI, substantiated by a set of research questions as the main subject of their investigation. The 2023 edition of ISWS focuses on the intersection of Semantic Web technologies and Creative AI. ISWS 2023 explored various intersections between Semantic Web technologies and creative AI. A key area of focus was the potential of LLMs as support tools for knowledge engineering. Participants also delved into the multifaceted applications of LLMs, including legal aspects of creative content production, humans in the loop, decentralised approaches to multimodal generative AI models, nanopublications and AI for personal scientific knowledge graphs, commonsense knowledge in automatic story and narrative completion, generative AI for art critique, prompt engineering, automatic music composition, commonsense prototyping and conceptual blending, and elicitation of tacit knowledge. As Large Language Models and semantic technologies continue to evolve, new exciting prospects are emerging: a future where the boundaries between creative expression and factual knowledge become increasingly permeable and porous, leading to a world of knowledge that is both informative and inspiring.


TOAST Framework: A Multidimensional Approach to Ethical and Sustainable AI Integration in Organizations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative technology with the potential to revolutionize various sectors, from healthcare to finance, education, and beyond. However, successfully implementing AI systems remains a complex challenge, requiring a comprehensive and methodologically sound framework. This paper contributes to this challenge by introducing the Trustworthy, Optimized, Adaptable, and Socio-Technologically harmonious (TOAST) framework. It draws on insights from various disciplines to align technical strategy with ethical values, societal responsibilities, and innovation aspirations. The TOAST framework is a novel approach designed to guide the implementation of AI systems, focusing on reliability, accountability, technical advancement, adaptability, and socio-technical harmony. By grounding the TOAST framework in healthcare case studies, this paper provides a robust evaluation of its practicality and theoretical soundness in addressing operational, ethical, and regulatory challenges in high-stakes environments, demonstrating how adaptable AI systems can enhance institutional efficiency, mitigate risks like bias and data privacy, and offer a replicable model for other sectors requiring ethically aligned and efficient AI integration.