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Regime transitions routinely break stationarity in time series, making calibrated uncertainty as important as point accuracy. We study distribution-free uncertainty for regime-switching forecasting by coupling Deep Switching State Space Models with Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) and its aggregated variant (AgACI). We also introduce a unified conformal wrapper that sits atop strong sequence baselines including S4, MC-Dropout GRU, sparse Gaussian processes, and a change-point local model to produce online predictive bands with finite-sample marginal guarantees under nonstationarity and model misspecification. Across synthetic and real datasets, conformalized forecasters achieve near-nominal coverage with competitive accuracy and generally improved band efficiency.

As a variant of the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), the partial AUC (PAUC) focuses on a specific range of false positive rate (FPR) and/or true positive rate (TPR) in the ROC curve. It is a pivotal evaluation metric in real-world scenarios with both class imbalance and decision constraints. However, selecting instances within these constrained intervals during its calculation is NP-hard, and thus typically requires approximation techniques for practical resolution. Despite the progress made in PAUC optimization over the last few years, most existing methods still suffer from uncontrollable approximation errors or a limited scalability when optimizing the approximate PAUC objectives. In this paper, we close the approximation gap of PAUC optimization by presenting two simple instance-wise minimax reformulations: one with an asymptotically vanishing gap, the other with the unbiasedness at the cost of more variables. Our key idea is to first establish an equivalent instance-wise problem to lower the time complexity, simplify the complicated sample selection procedure by threshold learning, and then apply different smoothing techniques. Equipped with an efficient solver, the resulting algorithms enjoy a linear per-iteration computational complexity w.r.t. the sample size and a convergence rate of $O(ε^{-1/3})$ for typical one-way and two-way PAUCs. Moreover, we provide a tight generalization bound of our minimax reformulations. The result explicitly demonstrates the impact of the TPR/FPR constraints $α$/$β$ on the generalization and exhibits a sharp order of $\tilde{O}(α^{-1}\n_+^{-1} + β^{-1}\n_-^{-1})$. Finally, extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets validate the strength of our proposed methods.

Clinical trials face mounting challenges: fragmented patient populations, slow enrollment, and unsustainable costs, particularly for late phase trials in oncology and rare diseases. While external control arms built from real-world data have been explored, a promising alternative is the generation of synthetic control arms using generative AI. A central challenge is the generation of time-to-event outcomes, which constitute primary endpoints in oncology and rare disease trials, but are difficult to model under censoring and small sample sizes. Existing generative approaches, largely GAN-based, are data-hungry, unstable, and rely on strong assumptions such as independent censoring. We introduce a variational autoencoder (VAE) that jointly generates mixed-type covariates and survival outcomes within a unified latent variable framework, without assuming independent censoring. Across synthetic and real trial datasets, we evaluate our model in two realistic scenarios: (i) data sharing under privacy constraints, where synthetic controls substitute for original data, and (ii) control-arm augmentation, where synthetic patients mitigate imbalances between treated and control groups. Our method outperforms GAN baselines on fidelity, utility, and privacy metrics, while revealing systematic miscalibration of type I error and power. We propose a post-generation selection procedure that improves calibration, highlighting both progress and open challenges for generative survival modeling.

However, the generating process can be different in several aspects, such as the conditions and devices used for acquisition, different pre-processing, different compressions, etc. Domain adaptation

However, the generating process can be different in several aspects, such as the conditions and devices used for acquisition, different pre-processing, different compressions, etc. Domain adaptation

This paper proposes a novel Bayesian framework for solving Poisson inverse problems by devising a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm which accounts for the underlying non-Euclidean geometry. To address the challenges posed by the Poisson likelihood -- such as non-Lipschitz gradients and positivity constraints -- we derive a Bayesian model which leverages exact and asymptotically exact data augmentations. In particular, the augmented model incorporates two sets of splitting variables both derived through a Bregman divergence based on the Burg entropy. Interestingly the resulting augmented posterior distribution is characterized by conditional distributions which benefit from natural conjugacy properties and preserve the intrinsic geometry of the latent and splitting variables. This allows for efficient sampling via Gibbs steps, which can be performed explicitly for all conditionals, except the one incorporating the regularization potential. For this latter, we resort to a Hessian Riemannian Langevin Monte Carlo (HRLMC) algorithm which is well suited to handle priors with explicit or easily computable score functions. By operating on a mirror manifold, this Langevin step ensures that the sampling satisfies the positivity constraints and more accurately reflects the underlying problem structure. Performance results obtained on denoising, deblurring, and positron emission tomography (PET) experiments demonstrate that the method achieves competitive performance in terms of reconstruction quality compared to optimization- and sampling-based approaches.

Nonetheless, most of the existing methods could only optimize P AUC approximately, leading to inevitable biases that are not controllable.