Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the publications available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study attempts to close this gap by conducting a systematic review of technology forecasting literature addressing the application of quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. We identified 25 studies relevant to the objective of this research and classified the techniques used in the studies into different categories, among which growth curves and time series methods were shown to remain popular over the past decade, while newer methods, such as machine learning-based hybrid models, have emerged in recent years. As more effort and evidence are needed to determine if hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, we expect to see a growing trend in the development and application of hybrid models to technology forecasting.

Iraqi forces shot down an armed drone on Tuesday over the Erbil airport in northern Iraq, where U.S. and other international forces are stationed, according to a report. The Kurdistan Counter Terrorism, an Iraqi semi-autonomous regional security agency, said an "illegal militia" launched an armed drone against the Erbil airport that was shot down at approximately 09:52 a.m. It is not immediately clear if the foiled attack caused any damage or casualties. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked more than 90 times since the start of the conflict. The Pentagon does not count attacks on U.S. warships at sea in this number.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen tremendous development in industry and academia. However, striking recent advances by industry have stunned the world, inviting a fresh perspective on the role of academic research in this field. Here, we characterize the impact and type of AI produced by both environments over the last 25 years and establish several patterns. We find that articles published by teams consisting exclusively of industry researchers tend to get greater attention, with a higher chance of being highly cited and citation-disruptive, and several times more likely to produce state-of-the-art models. In contrast, we find that exclusively academic teams publish the bulk of AI research and tend to produce higher novelty work, with single papers having several times higher likelihood of being unconventional and atypical. The respective impact-novelty advantages of industry and academia are robust to controls for subfield, team size, seniority, and prestige. We find that academic-industry collaborations struggle to replicate the novelty of academic teams and tend to look similar to industry teams. Together, our findings identify the unique and nearly irreplaceable contributions that both academia and industry make toward the healthy progress of AI.

Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) navigate underwater with a series of impulsive, click-like sounds known as echolocation clicks. These clicks are characterized by a multipulse structure (MPS) that serves as a distinctive pattern. In this work, we use the stability of the MPS as a detection metric for recognizing and classifying the presence of clicks in noisy environments. To distinguish between noise transients and to handle simultaneous emissions from multiple sperm whales, our approach clusters a time series of MPS measures while removing potential clicks that do not fulfil the limits of inter-click interval, duration and spectrum. As a result, our approach can handle high noise transients and low signal-to-noise ratio. The performance of our detection approach is examined using three datasets: seven months of recordings from the Mediterranean Sea containing manually verified ambient noise; several days of manually labelled data collected from the Dominica Island containing approximately 40,000 clicks from multiple sperm whales; and a dataset from the Bahamas containing 1,203 labelled clicks from a single sperm whale. Comparing with the results of two benchmark detectors, a better trade-off between precision and recall is observed as well as a significant reduction in false detection rates, especially in noisy environments. To ensure reproducibility, we provide our database of labelled clicks along with our implementation code.

Trajectory generation is an important concern in pedestrian, vehicle, and wildlife movement studies. Generated trajectories help enrich the training corpus in relation to deep learning applications, and may be used to facilitate simulation tasks. This is especially significant in the wildlife domain, where the cost of obtaining additional real data can be prohibitively expensive, time-consuming, and bear ethical considerations. In this paper, we introduce WildGEN: a conceptual framework that addresses this challenge by employing a Variational Auto-encoders (VAEs) based method for the acquisition of movement characteristics exhibited by wild geese over a long horizon using a sparse set of truth samples. A subsequent post-processing step of the generated trajectories is performed based on smoothing filters to reduce excessive wandering. Our evaluation is conducted through visual inspection and the computation of the Hausdorff distance between the generated and real trajectories. In addition, we utilize the Pearson Correlation Coefficient as a way to measure how realistic the trajectories are based on the similarity of clusters evaluated on the generated and real trajectories.

Reza Pahlavi, exiled crown prince of Iran, weighs in on Iranian threats to shut the Mediterranean Sea amid war with Israel and the threat America faces from the country and its proxies. The U.S. Navy fired anti-ship ballistic missiles on Tuesday against incoming Iran-backed Houthi missiles in the Red Sea, signaling a significant escalation in the region, a senior defense official told Fox News. The Navy engaged three ballistic missiles provided to Yemen's Houthis by Iran. It was the first time the Navy shot down an incoming ballistic missile using an anti-ship ballistic missile. The USS Laboon and assets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group shot down 12 one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land attack missiles fired by the Houthis over a 12-hour period, U.S. Central Command said.

Process-Based Modeling (PBM) and Machine Learning (ML) are often perceived as distinct paradigms in the geosciences. Here we present differentiable geoscientific modeling as a powerful pathway toward dissolving the perceived barrier between them and ushering in a paradigm shift. For decades, PBM offered benefits in interpretability and physical consistency but struggled to efficiently leverage large datasets. ML methods, especially deep networks, presented strong predictive skills yet lacked the ability to answer specific scientific questions. While various methods have been proposed for ML-physics integration, an important underlying theme -- differentiable modeling -- is not sufficiently recognized. Here we outline the concepts, applicability, and significance of differentiable geoscientific modeling (DG). "Differentiable" refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables, critically enabling the learning of high-dimensional unknown relationships. DG refers to a range of methods connecting varying amounts of prior knowledge to neural networks and training them together, capturing a different scope than physics-guided machine learning and emphasizing first principles. Preliminary evidence suggests DG offers better interpretability and causality than ML, improved generalizability and extrapolation capability, and strong potential for knowledge discovery, while approaching the performance of purely data-driven ML. DG models require less training data while scaling favorably in performance and efficiency with increasing amounts of data. With DG, geoscientists may be better able to frame and investigate questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized linkages.

In contemporary scientific research, understanding the distinction between correlation and causation is crucial. While correlation is a widely used analytical standard, it does not inherently imply causation. This paper addresses the potential for misinterpretation in relying solely on correlation, especially in the context of nonlinear dynamics. Despite the rapid development of various correlation research methodologies, including machine learning, the exploration into mining causal correlations between variables remains ongoing. Empirical Dynamic Modeling (EDM) emerges as a data-driven framework for modeling dynamic systems, distinguishing itself by eschewing traditional formulaic methods in data analysis. Instead, it reconstructs dynamic system behavior directly from time series data. The fundamental premise of EDM is that dynamic systems can be conceptualized as processes where a set of states, governed by specific rules, evolve over time in a high-dimensional space. By reconstructing these evolving states, dynamic systems can be effectively modeled. Using EDM, this paper explores the detection of causal relationships between variables within dynamic systems through their time series data. It posits that if variable X causes variable Y, then the information about X is inherent in Y and can be extracted from Y's data. This study begins by examining the dialectical relationship between correlation and causation, emphasizing that correlation does not equate to causation, and the absence of correlation does not necessarily indicate a lack of causation.

Former CENTCOM Spokesperson and retired U.S. Army Colonel Joe Buccino discusses Iran's involvement in Houthi attacks and the U.S.' approach to deterrence and response. Iran appears to have struck a ship off the Indian coast with an unmanned aerial vehicle, a U.S. official told Fox News on Saturday. It comes as Houthi militants targeted multiple cargo ships on Saturday, as the group fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles into international shipping lanes located in the Southern Red Sea, according to U.S. Central Command. No ships were impacted by the ballistic missiles, officials said. The USS Laboon shot down four unmanned aerial drones on Saturday which originated from areas that the Houthis control in Yemen.

In this paper, we present our finding that prepending a Task-Agnostic Prefix Prompt (TAPP) to the input improves the instruction-following ability of various Large Language Models (LLMs) during inference. TAPP is different from canonical prompts for LLMs in that it is a fixed prompt prepended to the beginning of every input regardless of the target task for zero-shot generalization. We observe that both base LLMs (i.e. not fine-tuned to follow instructions) and instruction-tuned models benefit from TAPP, resulting in 34.58% and 12.26% improvement on average, respectively. This implies that the instruction-following ability of LLMs can be improved during inference time with a fixed prompt constructed with simple heuristics. We hypothesize that TAPP assists language models to better estimate the output distribution by focusing more on the instruction of the target task during inference. In other words, such ability does not seem to be sufficiently activated in not only base LLMs but also many instruction-fine-tuned LLMs. All experiments are reproducible from https://github.com/seonghyeonye/TAPP.