Accurate precipitation forecasts have a high socio-economic value due to their role in decision-making in various fields such as transport networks and farming. We propose a global statistical postprocessing method for grid-based precipitation ensemble forecasts. This U-Net-based distributional regression method predicts marginal distributions in the form of parametric distributions inferred by scoring rule minimization. Distributional regression U-Nets are compared to state-of-the-art postprocessing methods for daily 21-h forecasts of 3-h accumulated precipitation over the South of France. Training data comes from the M\'et\'eo-France weather model AROME-EPS and spans 3 years. A practical challenge appears when consistent data or reforecasts are not available. Distributional regression U-Nets compete favorably with the raw ensemble. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, they reach a performance comparable to quantile regression forests (QRF). However, they are unable to provide calibrated forecasts in areas associated with high climatological precipitation. In terms of predictive power for heavy precipitation events, they outperform both QRF and semi-parametric QRF with tail extensions.

Phytoplankton, a crucial component of aquatic ecosystems, requires efficient monitoring to understand marine ecological processes and environmental conditions. Traditional phytoplankton monitoring methods, relying on non-in situ observations, are time-consuming and resource-intensive, limiting timely analysis. To address these limitations, we introduce PhyTracker, an intelligent in situ tracking framework designed for automatic tracking of phytoplankton. PhyTracker overcomes significant challenges unique to phytoplankton monitoring, such as constrained mobility within water flow, inconspicuous appearance, and the presence of impurities. Our method incorporates three innovative modules: a Texture-enhanced Feature Extraction (TFE) module, an Attention-enhanced Temporal Association (ATA) module, and a Flow-agnostic Movement Refinement (FMR) module. These modules enhance feature capture, differentiate between phytoplankton and impurities, and refine movement characteristics, respectively. Extensive experiments on the PMOT dataset validate the superiority of PhyTracker in phytoplankton tracking, and additional tests on the MOT dataset demonstrate its general applicability, outperforming conventional tracking methods. This work highlights key differences between phytoplankton and traditional objects, offering an effective solution for phytoplankton monitoring.

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes, termed limit sets, link together several popular extremal dependence modelling frameworks. Although the geometric approach is becoming an increasingly popular modelling tool, current inference techniques are limited to a low dimensional setting (d < 4), and generally require rigid modelling assumptions. In this work, we propose a range of novel theoretical results to aid with the implementation of the geometric extremes framework and introduce the first approach to modelling limit sets using deep learning. By leveraging neural networks, we construct asymptotically-justified yet flexible semi-parametric models for extremal dependence of high-dimensional data. We showcase the efficacy of our deep approach by modelling the complex extremal dependencies between meteorological and oceanographic variables in the North Sea off the coast of the UK.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has demonstrated effectiveness in mitigating the hallucination problem of large language models (LLMs). However, the difficulty of aligning the retriever with the diverse LLMs' knowledge preferences inevitably poses an inevitable challenge in developing a reliable RAG system. To address this issue, we propose DPA-RAG, a universal framework designed to align diverse knowledge preferences within RAG systems. Specifically, we initially introduce a preference knowledge construction pipline and incorporate five novel query augmentation strategies to alleviate preference data scarcity. Based on preference data, DPA-RAG accomplishes both external and internal preference alignment: 1) It jointly integrate pair-wise, point-wise, and contrastive preference alignment abilities into the reranker, achieving external preference alignment among RAG components. 2) It further introduces a pre-aligned stage before vanilla Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT), enabling LLMs to implicitly capture knowledge aligned with their reasoning preferences, achieving LLMs' internal alignment. Experimental results across four knowledge-intensive QA datasets demonstrate that DPA-RAG outperforms all baselines and seamlessly integrates both black-box and open-sourced LLM readers. Further qualitative analysis and discussions also provide empirical guidance for achieving reliable RAG systems. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/dongguanting/DPA-RAG.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention in recent years. Due to their "Large" nature, training LLMs from scratch consumes immense computational resources. Since several major players in the artificial intelligence (AI) field have open-sourced their original LLMs, an increasing number of individual researchers and smaller companies are able to build derivative LLMs based on these open-sourced models at much lower costs. However, this practice opens up possibilities for unauthorized use or reproduction that may not comply with licensing agreements, and fine-tuning can change the model's behavior, thus complicating the determination of model ownership. Current intellectual property (IP) protection schemes for LLMs are either designed for white-box settings or require additional modifications to the original model, which restricts their use in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose ProFLingo, a black-box fingerprinting-based IP protection scheme for LLMs. ProFLingo generates queries that elicit specific responses from an original model, thereby establishing unique fingerprints. Our scheme assesses the effectiveness of these queries on a suspect model to determine whether it has been derived from the original model. ProFLingo offers a non-invasive approach, which neither requires knowledge of the suspect model nor modifications to the base model or its training process. To the best of our knowledge, our method represents the first black-box fingerprinting technique for IP protection for LLMs. Our source code and generated queries are available at: https://github.com/hengvt/ProFLingo.

Temporal causal discovery is a crucial task aimed at uncovering the causal relations within time series data. The latest temporal causal discovery methods usually train deep learning models on prediction tasks to uncover the causality between time series. They capture causal relations by analyzing the parameters of some components of the trained models, e.g., attention weights and convolution weights. However, this is an incomplete mapping process from the model parameters to the causality and fails to investigate the other components, e.g., fully connected layers and activation functions, that are also significant for causal discovery. To facilitate the utilization of the whole deep learning models in temporal causal discovery, we proposed an interpretable transformer-based causal discovery model termed CausalFormer, which consists of the causality-aware transformer and the decomposition-based causality detector. The causality-aware transformer learns the causal representation of time series data using a prediction task with the designed multi-kernel causal convolution which aggregates each input time series along the temporal dimension under the temporal priority constraint. Then, the decomposition-based causality detector interprets the global structure of the trained causality-aware transformer with the proposed regression relevance propagation to identify potential causal relations and finally construct the causal graph. Experiments on synthetic, simulated, and real datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of CausalFormer on discovering temporal causality. Our code is available at https://github.com/lingbai-kong/CausalFormer.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have highlighted the necessity of effective unlearning mechanisms to comply with data regulations and ethical AI practices. LLM unlearning aims at removing undesired data influences and associated model capabilities without compromising utility beyond the scope of unlearning. While interest in studying LLM unlearning is growing, the impact of the optimizer choice for LLM unlearning remains unexplored. In this work, we shed light on the significance of optimizer selection in LLM unlearning for the first time, establishing a clear connection between second-order optimization and influence unlearning (a classical approach using influence functions to update the model for data influence removal). This insight propels us to develop a second-order optimization-based LLM unlearning framework, termed Second-Order UnLearning (SOUL), which extends the static, one-shot model update using influence unlearning to a dynamic, iterative unlearning process. Our extensive experiments show that SOUL consistently outperforms conventional first-order methods across various unlearning tasks, models, and metrics, indicating that second-order optimization offers an effective and broadly applicable solution for LLM unlearning. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/SOUL.

To address the global issue of online hate, hate speech detection (HSD) systems are typically developed on datasets from the United States, thereby failing to generalize to English dialects from the Majority World. Furthermore, HSD models are often evaluated on non-representative samples, raising concerns about overestimating model performance in real-world settings. In this work, we introduce NaijaHate, the first dataset annotated for HSD which contains a representative sample of Nigerian tweets. We demonstrate that HSD evaluated on biased datasets traditionally used in the literature consistently overestimates real-world performance by at least two-fold. We then propose NaijaXLM-T, a pretrained model tailored to the Nigerian Twitter context, and establish the key role played by domain-adaptive pretraining and finetuning in maximizing HSD performance. Finally, owing to the modest performance of HSD systems in real-world conditions, we find that content moderators would need to review about ten thousand Nigerian tweets flagged as hateful daily to moderate 60% of all hateful content, highlighting the challenges of moderating hate speech at scale as social media usage continues to grow globally. Taken together, these results pave the way towards robust HSD systems and a better protection of social media users from hateful content in low-resource settings.

Yemen's Houthis have claimed carrying out a joint military operation with an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, to target four vessels in Israel's Haifa port. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a televised statement on Sunday that the group fired drones at two cement tankers and two cargo ships at the port a day prior over noncompliance with a ban on entering "ports of occupied Palestine". Saree added that the group had also targeted a Shorthorn Express ship in the Mediterranean Sea using drones, and both operations "successfully achieved their goals". Israel's Channel 12 reported an explosion occurred in Haifa at dawn after an air defence missile was launched towards the sea without activating the sirens. Israel's military did not comment on the Houthi claim, but stated in a post on X that it had shot down a drone approaching the country overnight from the east.

Optimal experimental design is a well studied field in applied science and engineering. Techniques for estimating such a design are commonly used within the framework of parameter estimation. Nonetheless, in recent years parameter estimation techniques are changing rapidly with the introduction of deep learning techniques to replace traditional estimation methods. This in turn requires the adaptation of optimal experimental design that is associated with these new techniques. In this paper we investigate a new experimental design methodology that uses deep learning. We show that the training of a network as a Likelihood Free Estimator can be used to significantly simplify the design process and circumvent the need for the computationally expensive bi-level optimization problem that is inherent in optimal experimental design for non-linear systems. Furthermore, deep design improves the quality of the recovery process for parameter estimation problems. As proof of concept we apply our methodology to two different systems of Ordinary Differential Equations.