Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Differential equations are important mechanistic models that are integral to many scientific and engineering applications. With the abundance of available data there has been a growing interest in data-driven physics-informed models. Gaussian processes (GPs) are particularly suited to this task as they can model complex, non-linear phenomena whilst incorporating prior knowledge and quantifying uncertainty. Current approaches have found some success but are limited as they either achieve poor computational scalings or focus only on the temporal setting. This work addresses these issues by introducing a variational spatio-temporal state-space GP that handles linear and non-linear physical constraints while achieving efficient linear-in-time computation costs. We demonstrate our methods in a range of synthetic and real-world settings and outperform the current state-of-the-art in both predictive and computational performance.

Tank simulations and new models reveal that waves can go beyond our known limits. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. There is more to the ocean's waves than just rolling and breaking. Most waves are not unidirectional; they're not just moving across a two-dimensional plane, as described in many current models. Scientists studying the waves' three-dimensional properties have observed that waves moving in more than one direction at once can grow twice as steep before they break and even reach heights that are four times steeper than previously believed.

Propaganda plays a critical role in shaping public opinion and fueling disinformation. While existing research primarily focuses on identifying propaganda techniques, it lacks the ability to capture the broader motives and the impacts of such content. To address these challenges, we introduce propainsight, a conceptual framework grounded in foundational social science research, which systematically dissects propaganda into techniques, arousal appeals, and underlying intent. propainsight offers a more granular understanding of how propaganda operates across different contexts. Additionally, we present propagaze, a novel dataset that combines human-annotated data with high-quality synthetic data generated through a meticulously designed pipeline. Our experiments show that off-the-shelf LLMs struggle with propaganda analysis, but training with propagaze significantly improves performance. Fine-tuned Llama-7B-Chat achieves 203.4% higher text span IoU in technique identification and 66.2% higher BertScore in appeal analysis compared to 1-shot GPT-4-Turbo. Moreover, propagaze complements limited human-annotated data in data-sparse and cross-domain scenarios, showing its potential for comprehensive and generalizable propaganda analysis.

Scientists often search for phenomena of interest while exploring new environments. Autonomous vehicles are deployed to explore such areas where human-operated vehicles would be costly or dangerous. Online control of autonomous vehicles for information-gathering is called adaptive sampling and can be framed as a POMDP that uses information gain as its principal objective. While prior work focuses largely on single-agent scenarios, this paper confronts challenges unique to multi-agent adaptive sampling, such as avoiding redundant observations, preventing vehicle collision, and facilitating path planning under limited communication. We start with Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) methods, which address collision avoidance by decomposing the MAPF problem into a series of single-agent path planning problems. We then present information-driven MAPF which addresses multi-agent information gain under limited communication. First, we introduce an admissible heuristic that relaxes mutual information gain to an additive function that can be evaluated as a set of independent single agent path planning problems. Second, we extend our approach to a distributed system that is robust to limited communication. When all agents are in range, the group plans jointly to maximize information. When some agents move out of range, communicating subgroups are formed and the subgroups plan independently. Since redundant observations are less likely when vehicles are far apart, this approach only incurs a small loss in information gain, resulting in an approach that gracefully transitions from full to partial communication. We evaluate our method against other adaptive sampling strategies across various scenarios, including real-world robotic applications. Our method was able to locate up to 200% more unique phenomena in certain scenarios, and each agent located its first unique phenomenon faster by up to 50%.

Water quality mapping for critical parameters such as temperature, salinity, and turbidity is crucial for assessing an aquaculture farm's health and yield capacity. Traditional approaches involve using boats or human divers, which are time-constrained and lack depth variability. This work presents an innovative approach to 3D water quality mapping in shallow water environments using a BlueROV2 equipped with GPS and a water quality sensor. This system allows for accurate location correction by resurfacing when errors occur. This study is being conducted at an oyster farm in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, providing a more comprehensive and precise water quality analysis in aquaculture settings.

Synthetic opioids are the most common drugs involved in drug-involved overdose mortalities in the U.S. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported that in 2018, about 70% of all drug overdose deaths involved opioids and 67% of all opioid-involved deaths were accounted for by synthetic opioids. In this study, we investigated the spread of synthetic opioids between 2013 and 2020 in the U.S. We analyzed the relationship between the spatiotemporal pattern of synthetic opioid-involved deaths and another key opioid, heroin, and compared patterns of deaths involving these two types of drugs during this period. Spatial connections and human mobility between counties were incorporated into a graph convolutional neural network model to represent and analyze the spread of synthetic opioid-involved deaths in the context of previous heroin-involved death patterns.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various real-world tasks. However, they often struggle to fully comprehend and effectively utilize their input contexts, resulting in responses that are unfaithful or hallucinated. This difficulty increases for contexts that are long or contain distracting information, which can divert LLMs from fully capturing essential evidence. To address this issue, many works use prompting to help LLMs utilize contextual information more faithfully. For instance, iterative prompting highlights key information in two steps that first ask the LLM to identify important pieces of context and then derive answers accordingly. However, prompting methods are constrained to highlighting key information implicitly in token space, which is often insufficient to fully steer the model's attention. To improve model faithfulness more reliably, we propose AutoPASTA, a method that automatically identifies key contextual information and explicitly highlights it by steering an LLM's attention scores. Like prompting, AutoPASTA is applied at inference time and does not require changing any model parameters. Our experiments on open-book QA demonstrate that AutoPASTA effectively enables models to grasp essential contextual information, leading to substantially improved model faithfulness and performance, e.g., an average improvement of 7.95% for LLAMA3-70B-Instruct. Code will be publicly available at https://github.com/QingruZhang/AutoPASTA .

Windstorms significantly impact the UK, causing extensive damage to property, disrupting society, and potentially resulting in loss of life. Accurate modelling and understanding of such events are essential for effective risk assessment and mitigation. However, the rarity of extreme windstorms results in limited observational data, which poses significant challenges for comprehensive analysis and insurance modelling. This dissertation explores the application of generative models to produce realistic synthetic wind field data, aiming to enhance the robustness of current CAT models used in the insurance industry. The study utilises hourly reanalysis data from the ERA5 dataset, which covers the period from 1940 to 2022. Three models, including standard GANs, WGAN-GP, and U-net diffusion models, were employed to generate high-quality wind maps of the UK. These models are then evaluated using multiple metrics, including SSIM, KL divergence, and EMD, with some assessments performed in a reduced dimensionality space using PCA. The results reveal that while all models are effective in capturing the general spatial characteristics, each model exhibits distinct strengths and weaknesses. The standard GAN introduced more noise compared to the other models. The WGAN-GP model demonstrated superior performance, particularly in replicating statistical distributions. The U-net diffusion model produced the most visually coherent outputs but struggled slightly in replicating peak intensities and their statistical variability. This research underscores the potential of generative models in supplementing limited reanalysis datasets with synthetic data, providing valuable tools for risk assessment and catastrophe modelling. However, it is important to select appropriate evaluation metrics that assess different aspects of the generated outputs. Future work could refine these models and incorporate more ...

Accurate estimates of surface solar irradiance (SSI) are essential for solar resource assessments and solar energy forecasts in grid integration and building control applications. SSI estimates for spatially extended regions can be retrieved from geostationary satellites such as Meteosat. Traditional SSI satellite retrievals like Heliosat rely on physical radiative transfer modelling. We introduce the first machine-learning-based satellite retrieval for instantaneous SSI and demonstrate its capability to provide accurate and generalizable SSI estimates across Europe. Our deep learning retrieval provides near real-time SSI estimates based on data-driven emulation of Heliosat and fine-tuning on pyranometer networks. By including SSI from ground stations, our SSI retrieval model can outperform Heliosat accuracy and generalize well to regions with other climates and surface albedos in cloudy conditions (clear-sky index < 0.8). We also show that the SSI retrieved from Heliosat exhibits large biases in mountain regions, and that training and fine-tuning our retrieval models on SSI data from ground stations strongly reduces these biases, outperforming Heliosat. Furthermore, we quantify the relative importance of the Meteosat channels and other predictor variables like solar zenith angle for the accuracy of our deep learning SSI retrieval model in different cloud conditions. We find that in cloudy conditions multiple near-infrared and infrared channels enhance the performance. Our results can facilitate the development of more accurate satellite retrieval models of surface solar irradiance.