Adriatic Sea
Biscotti once fed Roman navies and Christopher Columbus's expeditions
Biscotti once fed Roman navies and Christopher Columbus's expeditions Long before it met espresso, this crunchy pastry kept sailors fed. Roman writer Pliny the Elder was the first writer to mention biscotti in 77 CE. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Step into a typical Italian restaurant in the U.S. and you'll likely find "biscotti" on the menu. Typically served with a glass of sweet wine or cappuccino, these log-shaped crunchy cookies are a beloved treat that most of us associate with cozy dinners and Little Italy.
The Hidden Math of Ocean Waves
The math behind even the simplest ocean waves is notoriously uncooperative. A team of Italian mathematicians has made major advances toward understanding it. The best perk of Alberto Maspero's job, he says, is the view from his window. Situated on a hill above the ancient port city of Trieste, Italy, his office at the International School for Advanced Studies overlooks a broad bay at the northern tip of the Adriatic Sea. "It's very inspiring," the mathematician said. "For sure the most beautiful view I've ever had." When the bora is strong enough, it drives the waves into reverse. But they never actually get there.
A Survey on SAR ship classification using Deep Learning
Awais, Ch Muhammad, Reggiannini, Marco, Moroni, Davide, Salerno, Emanuele
Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful tool for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) ship classification. This survey comprehensively analyzes the diverse DL techniques employed in this domain. We identify critical trends and challenges, highlighting the importance of integrating handcrafted features, utilizing public datasets, data augmentation, fine-tuning, explainability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations to improve DL model performance. This survey establishes a first-of-its-kind taxonomy for categorizing relevant research based on DL models, handcrafted feature use, SAR attribute utilization, and the impact of fine-tuning. We discuss the methodologies used in SAR ship classification tasks and the impact of different techniques. Finally, the survey explores potential avenues for future research, including addressing data scarcity, exploring novel DL architectures, incorporating interpretability techniques, and establishing standardized performance metrics. By addressing these challenges and leveraging advancements in DL, researchers can contribute to developing more accurate and efficient ship classification systems, ultimately enhancing maritime surveillance and related applications.
GPTCast: a weather language model for precipitation nowcasting
Franch, Gabriele, Tomasi, Elena, Wanjari, Rishabh, Poli, Virginia, Cardinali, Chiara, Alberoni, Pier Paolo, Cristoforetti, Marco
This work introduces GPTCast, a generative deep-learning method for ensemble nowcast of radar-based precipitation, inspired by advancements in large language models (LLMs). We employ a GPT model as a forecaster to learn spatiotemporal precipitation dynamics using tokenized radar images. The tokenizer is based on a Quantized Variational Autoencoder featuring a novel reconstruction loss tailored for the skewed distribution of precipitation that promotes faithful reconstruction of high rainfall rates. The approach produces realistic ensemble forecasts and provides probabilistic outputs with accurate uncertainty estimation. The model is trained without resorting to randomness, all variability is learned solely from the data and exposed by model at inference for ensemble generation. We train and test GPTCast using a 6-year radar dataset over the Emilia-Romagna region in Northern Italy, showing superior results compared to state-of-the-art ensemble extrapolation methods.
SolNet: Open-source deep learning models for photovoltaic power forecasting across the globe
Depoortere, Joris, Driesen, Johan, Suykens, Johan, Kazmi, Hussain Syed
Deep learning models have gained increasing prominence in recent years in the field of solar pho-tovoltaic (PV) forecasting. One drawback of these models is that they require a lot of high-quality data to perform well. This is often infeasible in practice, due to poor measurement infrastructure in legacy systems and the rapid build-up of new solar systems across the world. This paper proposes SolNet: a novel, general-purpose, multivariate solar power forecaster, which addresses these challenges by using a two-step forecasting pipeline which incorporates transfer learning from abundant synthetic data generated from PVGIS, before fine-tuning on observational data. Using actual production data from hundreds of sites in the Netherlands, Australia and Belgium, we show that SolNet improves forecasting performance over data-scarce settings as well as baseline models. We find transfer learning benefits to be the strongest when only limited observational data is available. At the same time we provide several guidelines and considerations for transfer learning practitioners, as our results show that weather data, seasonal patterns, amount of synthetic data and possible mis-specification in source location, can have a major impact on the results. The SolNet models created in this way are applicable for any land-based solar photovoltaic system across the planet where simulated and observed data can be combined to obtain improved forecasting capabilities.
Explainable machine learning for predicting shellfish toxicity in the Adriatic Sea using long-term monitoring data of HABs
Marzidovšek, Martin, Francé, Janja, Podpečan, Vid, Vadnjal, Stanka, Dolenc, Jožica, Mozetič, Patricija
In this study, explainable machine learning techniques are applied to predict the toxicity of mussels in the Gulf of Trieste (Adriatic Sea) caused by harmful algal blooms. By analysing a newly created 28-year dataset containing records of toxic phytoplankton in mussel farming areas and toxin concentrations in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis), we train and evaluate the performance of ML models to accurately predict diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) events. The random forest model provided the best prediction of positive toxicity results based on the F1 score. Explainability methods such as permutation importance and SHAP identified key species (Dinophysis fortii and D. caudata) and environmental factors (salinity, river discharge and precipitation) as the best predictors of DSP outbreaks. These findings are important for improving early warning systems and supporting sustainable aquaculture practices.
Spatio-seasonal risk assessment of upward lightning at tall objects using meteorological reanalysis data
Stucke, Isabell, Morgenstern, Deborah, Mayr, Georg J., Simon, Thorsten, Zeileis, Achim, Diendorfer, Gerhard, Schulz, Wolfgang, Pichler, Hannes
This study investigates lightning at tall objects and evaluates the risk of upward lightning (UL) over the eastern Alps and its surrounding areas. While uncommon, UL poses a threat, especially to wind turbines, as the long-duration current of UL can cause significant damage. Current risk assessment methods overlook the impact of meteorological conditions, potentially underestimating UL risks. Therefore, this study employs random forests, a machine learning technique, to analyze the relationship between UL measured at Gaisberg Tower (Austria) and $35$ larger-scale meteorological variables. Of these, the larger-scale upward velocity, wind speed and direction at 10 meters and cloud physics variables contribute most information. The random forests predict the risk of UL across the study area at a 1 km$^2$ resolution. Strong near-surface winds combined with upward deflection by elevated terrain increase UL risk. The diurnal cycle of the UL risk as well as high-risk areas shift seasonally. They are concentrated north/northeast of the Alps in winter due to prevailing northerly winds, and expanding southward, impacting northern Italy in the transitional and summer months. The model performs best in winter, with the highest predicted UL risk coinciding with observed peaks in measured lightning at tall objects. The highest concentration is north of the Alps, where most wind turbines are located, leading to an increase in overall lightning activity. Comprehensive meteorological information is essential for UL risk assessment, as lightning densities are a poor indicator of lightning at tall objects.