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Learning Temporal Dynamics of Behavior Propagation in Social Networks

AAAI Conferences

Social influence has been widely accepted to explain people's cascade behaviors and further utilized in many related applications. However, few of existing work studied the direct, microscopic and temporal impact of social influence on people's behaviors in detail. In this paper we concentrate on the behavior modeling and systematically formulate the family of behavior propagation models (BPMs) including the static models (BP and IBP), and their discrete temporal variants (DBP and DIBP). To address the temporal dynamics of behavior propagation over continuous time, we propose a continuous temporal interest-aware behavior propagation model, called CIBP. As a new member of the BPM family, CIBP exploits the continuous-temporal functions (CTFs) to model the fully-continuous dynamic variance of social influence over time. Experiments on real-world datasets evaluated the family of BPMs and demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.


Scalable Sparse Covariance Estimation via Self-Concordance

AAAI Conferences

We consider the class of convex minimization problems, composed of a self-concordant function, such as the logdet metric, a convex data fidelity term h(.) and, a regularizing — possibly non-smooth — function g(.). This type of problems have recently attracted a great deal of interest, mainly due to their omnipresence in top-notch applications. Under this locally Lipschitz continuous gradient setting, we analyze the convergence behavior of proximal Newton schemes with the added twist of a probable presence of inexact evaluations. We prove attractive convergence rate guarantees and enhance state-of-the-art optimization schemes to accommodate such developments. Experimental results on sparse covariance estimation show the merits of our algorithm, both in terms of recovery efficiency and complexity.


Approximate Lifting Techniques for Belief Propagation

AAAI Conferences

Many AI applications need to explicitly represent relational structure as well as handle uncertainty. First order probabilistic models combine the power of logic and probability to deal with such domains. A naive approach to inference in these models is to propositionalize the whole theory and carry out the inference on the ground network. Lifted inference techniques (such as lifted belief propagation; Singla and Domingos 2008) provide a more scalable approach to inference by combining together groups of objects which behave identically. In many cases, constructing the lifted network can itself be quite costly. In addition, the exact lifted network is often very close in size to the fully propositionalized model. To overcome these problems, we present approximate lifted inference, which groups together similar but distinguishable objects and treats them as if they were identical. Early stopping terminates the execution of the lifted network construction at an early stage resulting in a coarser network. Noise-tolerant hypercubes allow for marginal errors in the representation of the lifted network itself. Both of our algorithms can significantly speed up the process of lifted network construction as well as result in much smaller models. The coarseness of the approximation can be adjusted depending on the accuracy required, and we can bound the resulting error. Extensive evaluation on six domains demonstrates great efficiency gains with only minor (or no) loss in accuracy.


STREETS: Game-Theoretic Traffic Patrolling with Exploration and Exploitation

AAAI Conferences

To dissuade reckless driving and mitigate accidents, cities deploy resources to patrol roads. In this paper, we present STREETS, an application developed for the city of Singapore, which models the problem of computing randomized traffic patrol strategies as a defender-attacker Stackelberg game. Previous work on Stackelberg security games has focused extensively on counter-terrorism settings. STREETS moves beyond counter-terrorism and represents the first use of Stackelberg games for traffic patrolling, in the process providing a novel algorithm for solving such games that addresses three major challenges in modeling and scale-up. First, there exists a high degree of unpredictability in travel times through road networks, which we capture using a Markov Decision Process for planning the patrols of the defender (the police) in the game. Second, modeling all possible police patrols and their interactions with a large number of adversaries (drivers) introduces a significant scalability challenge. To address this challenge we apply a compact game representation in a novel fashion combined with adversary and state sampling. Third, patrol strategies must balance exploitation (minimizing violations) with exploration (maximizing omnipresence), a tradeoff we model by solving a bi-objective optimization problem. We present experimental results using real-world traffic data from Singapore. This work is done in collaboration with the Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs and is currently being evaluated by the Singapore Police Force.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Manifold Learning for Jointly Modeling Topic and Visualization

AAAI Conferences

Classical approaches to visualization directly reduce a document's high-dimensional representation into visualizable two or three dimensions, using techniques such as multidimensional scaling. More recent approaches consider an intermediate representation in topic space, between word space and visualization space, which preserves the semantics by topic modeling. We call the latter semantic visualization problem, as it seeks to jointly model topic and visualization. While previous approaches aim to preserve the global consistency, they do not consider the local consistency in terms of the intrinsic geometric structure of the document manifold. We therefore propose an unsupervised probabilistic model, called Semafore, which aims to preserve the manifold in the lower-dimensional spaces. Comprehensive experiments on several real-life text datasets of news articles and web pages show that Semafore significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines on objective evaluation metrics.