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Artificial Prediction Markets for Online Prediction

AAAI Conferences

In this dissertation, we propose an online learning technique to predict a value of a continuous variable by (i) integrating a set of data streams from heterogeneous sources with time varying compositions including (a) changing the quality of data streams, (b) addition or deletion of data streams (ii) integrating the results of several analysis algorithms for each data source when the most suitable algorithm for a given data source is not known a priori (iii) dynamically weighting the prediction of each analysis algorithm and data source on the system prediction based on their varying quality.


Exploiting Trust Information to Cope with Malicious Entities in Multi-Agent Systems

AAAI Conferences

Our research is within the area of artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. More specifically, we focus on evaluating trust relationships between the agents in multi-agent e-marketplaces and sensor networks and aim to address the following problems: 1) how to identify a trustworthy (good quality) agent; 2) how to cope with dishonest advisors i.e., agents who provide misleading opinions about others.


Bipartite Graph for Topic Extraction

AAAI Conferences

This article presents a bipartite graph propagation method to be applied to different tasks in the machine learning unsupervised domain, such as topic extraction and clustering. We introduce the objectives and hypothesis that motivate the use of graph based method, and we give the intuition of the proposed Bipartite Graph Propagation Algorithm. The contribution of this study is the development of new method that allows the use of heuristic knowledge to discover topics in textual data easier than it is possible in the traditional mathematical formalism based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Initial experiments demonstrate that our Bipartite Graph Propagation algorithm return good results in a static context (offline algorithm). Now, our research is focusing on big amount of data and dynamic context (online algorithm).


Speedy versus Greedy Search

AAAI Conferences

When an optimal solution is not required, satisficing search methods such as greedy best-first search are often used to find solutions quickly. In work on satisficing search, there has been substantial attention devoted to how to solve problems associated with local minima or plateaus in the heuristic function. One technique that has been shown to be quite promising is using an alternative heuristic function that does not estimate cost-to-go, but rather estimates distance-to-go. There is currently little beyond intuition to explain its superiority. We begin by empirically showing that the success of the distance-to-go heuristic appears related to its having smaller local minima. We then discuss a reasonable theoretical model of heuristics and show that, under this model, the expected size of local minima is higher for a cost-to-go heuristic than a distance-to-go heuristic, offering a possible explanation as to why distance-to-go heuristics tend to outperform cost-to-go heuristics.


Max Is More than Min: Solving Maximization Problems with Heuristic Search

AAAI Conferences

Most work in heuristic search considers problems where a low cost solution is preferred (MIN problems). In this paper, we investigate the complementary setting where a solution of high reward is preferred (MAX problems). Example MAX problems include finding a longest simple path in a graph, maximal coverage, and various constraint optimization problems. We examine several popular search algorithms for MIN problems and discover the curious ways in which they misbehave on MAX problems. We propose modifications that preserve the original intentions behind the algorithms but allow them to solve MAX problems, and compare them theoretically and empirically. Interesting results include the failure of bidirectional search and close relationships between Dijkstra's algorithm, weighted A*, and depth-first search.


Firefly Monte Carlo: Exact MCMC with Subsets of Data

AAAI Conferences

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular tool for Bayesian inference.However, MCMC cannot be practically applied to large data sets because of theprohibitive cost of evaluating every likelihood term at every iteration. Here we present Firefly Monte Carlo (FlyMC) MCMC algorithm with auxiliary variables that only queries the likelihoods of a subset of the data at each iteration yet simulates from the exact posterior distribution. FlyMC is compatible with modern MCMC algorithms, and only requires a lower bound on the per-datum likelihood factors. In experiments, we find that FlyMC generates samples from the posterior more than an order of magnitude faster than regular MCMC, allowing MCMC methods to tackle larger datasets than were previously considered feasible.


Trust-Guided Behavior Adaptation Using Case-Based Reasoning

AAAI Conferences

We propose an approach that allows a robot to evaluate its trustworthiness and adapt its behavior accordingly. The The addition of a robot to a team can be difficult if trust estimate, which we refer to as an inverse trust estimate, the human teammates do not trust the robot. This differs from traditional computational trust metrics in that it can result in underutilization or disuse of the robot, measures how much trust other agents have in the robot rather even if the robot has skills or abilities that are necessary than how much trust the robot has in other agents. Since the to achieve team goals or reduce risk. To robot can only use observable information and not information help a robot integrate itself with a human team, we that is internal to the teammates' reasoning, the inverse present an agent algorithm that allows a robot to estimate trust estimate relies on evaluating the standard interactions its trustworthiness and adapt its behavior accordingly.


Using Social Media to Enhance Emergency Situation Awareness: Extended Abstract

AAAI Conferences

Social media platforms, such as Twitter, offer a rich source of real-time information about real-world events, particularly during mass emergencies. Sifting valuable information from social media provides useful insight into time-critical situations for emergency officers to understand the impact of hazards and act on emergency responses in a timely manner. This work focuses on analyzing Twitter messages generated during natural disasters, and shows how natural language processing and data mining techniques can be utilized to extract situation awareness information from Twitter. We present key relevant approaches that we have investigated including burst detection, tweet filtering and classification, online clustering, and geotagging.


Feature Ensemble Plus Sample Selection: Domain Adaptation for Sentiment Classification (Extended Abstract)

AAAI Conferences

The domain adaptation problem arises often in the field of sentiment classification. There are two distinct needs in domain adaptation, namely labeling adaptation and instance adaptation. Most of current research focuses on the former one, while neglects the latter one. In this work, we propose a joint approach, named feature ensemble plus sample selection (SS-FE), which takes both types of adaptation into account. A feature ensemble (FE) model is first proposed to learn a new labeling function in a feature re-weighting manner. Furthermore, a PCA-based sample selection (PCA-SS) method is proposed as an aid to FE for instance adaptation. Experimental results show that the proposed SS-FE approach could gain significant improvements, compared to individual FE and PCA-SS, due to its comprehensive consideration of both labeling adaptation and instance adaptation.


Inapproximability of Treewidth and Related Problems (Extended Abstract)

AAAI Conferences

Graphical models, such as Bayesian Networks and Markov networks play an important role in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Inference is a central problem to be solved on these networks. This, and other problems on these graph models are often known to be hard to solve in general, but tractable on graphs with bounded Treewidth. Therefore, finding or approximating the Treewidth of a graph is a fundamental problem related to inference in graphical models. In this paper, we study the approximability of a number of graph problems: Treewidth and Pathwidth of graphs, Minimum Fill-In, and a variety of different graph layout problems such as Minimum Cut Linear Arrangement. We show that, assuming Small Set Expansion Conjecture, all of these problems are NP-hard to approx- imate to within any constant factor in polynomial time.