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On Efficient Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Efron's biased-coin design and stratified block randomization, where participants are first grouped into strata based on baseline covariates and assigned treatments within each stratum to ensure balance across groups. In practice, datasets often contain additional covariates beyond the strata indicators. We propose a flexible distribution regression framework that leverages off-the-shelf machine learning methods to incorporate these additional covariates, enhancing the precision of distributional treatment effect estimates. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator and introduce a valid inference procedure. Furthermore, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for distributional treatment effects under CAR and demonstrate that our regression-adjusted estimator attains this bound. Simulation studies and empirical analyses of microcredit programs highlight the practical advantages of our method.


Neural Combinatorial Optimization for Real-World Routing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs) are a class of NP-hard problems ubiquitous in several real-world logistics scenarios that pose significant challenges for optimization. Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) has emerged as a promising alternative to classical approaches, as it can learn fast heuristics to solve VRPs. However, most research works in NCO for VRPs focus on simplified settings, which do not account for asymmetric distances and travel durations that cannot be derived by simple Euclidean distances and unrealistic data distributions, hindering real-world deployment. This work introduces RRNCO (Real Routing NCO) to bridge the gap of NCO between synthetic and real-world VRPs in the critical aspects of both data and modeling. First, we introduce a new, openly available dataset with real-world data containing a diverse dataset of locations, distances, and duration matrices from 100 cities, considering realistic settings with actual routing distances and durations obtained from Open Source Routing Machine (OSRM). Second, we propose a novel approach that efficiently processes both node and edge features through contextual gating, enabling the construction of more informed node embedding, and we finally incorporate an Adaptation Attention Free Module (AAFM) with neural adaptive bias mechanisms that effectively integrates not only distance matrices but also angular relationships between nodes, allowing our model to capture rich structural information. RRNCO achieves state-of-the-art results in real-world VRPs among NCO methods. We make our dataset and code publicly available at https://github.com/ai4co/real-routing-nco.


Ontology-Enhanced Educational Annotation Activities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information and communications technology and technology-enhanced learning have unquestionably transformed traditional teaching-learning processes and are positioned as key factors to promote quality education, one of the basic sustainable development goals of the 2030 agenda. Document annotation, which was traditionally carried out with pencil and paper and currently benefits from digital document annotation tools, is a representative example of this transformation. Using document annotation tools, students can enrich the documents with annotations that highlight the most relevant aspects of these documents. As the conceptual complexity of the learning domain increases, the annotation of the documents may require comprehensive domain knowledge and an expert analysis capability that students usually lack. Consequently, a proliferation of irrelevant, incorrect, and/or poorly decontextualized annotations may appear, while other relevant aspects are completely ignored by the students. The main hypothesis proposed by this paper is that the use of a guiding annotation ontology in the annotation activities is a keystone aspect to alleviate these shortcomings. Consequently, comprehension is improved, exhaustive content analysis is promoted, and meta-reflective thinking is developed. To test this hypothesis, we describe our own annotation tool, \@note, which fully implements this ontology-enhanced annotation paradigm, and we provide experimental evidence about how \@note can improve academic performance via a pilot study concerning critical literary annotation.


Indoor PM2.5 forecasting and the association with outdoor air pollution: a modelling study based on sensor data in Australia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exposure to poor indoor air quality poses significant health risks, necessitating thorough assessment to mitigate associated dangers. This study aims to predict hourly indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and investigate their correlation with outdoor PM2.5 levels across 24 distinct buildings in Australia. Indoor air quality data were gathered from 91 monitoring sensors in eight Australian cities spanning 2019 to 2022. Employing an innovative three-stage deep ensemble machine learning framework (DEML), comprising three base models (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) and two meta-models (Random Forest and Generalized Linear Model), hourly indoor PM2.5 concentrations were predicted. The model's accuracy was evaluated using a rolling windows approach, comparing its performance against three benchmark algorithms (SVM, RF, and XGBoost). Additionally, a correlation analysis assessed the relationship between indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations. Results indicate that the DEML model consistently outperformed benchmark models, achieving an R2 ranging from 0.63 to 0.99 and RMSE from 0.01 to 0.663 mg/m3 for most sensors. Notably, outdoor PM2.5 concentrations significantly impacted indoor air quality, particularly evident during events like bushfires. This study underscores the importance of accurate indoor air quality prediction, crucial for developing location-specific early warning systems and informing effective interventions. By promoting protective behaviors, these efforts contribute to enhanced public health outcomes.


Predictive Modelling of Air Quality Index (AQI) Across Diverse Cities and States of India using Machine Learning: Investigating the Influence of Punjab's Stubble Burning on AQI Variability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air pollution is a common and serious problem nowadays and it cannot be ignored as it has harmful impacts on human health. To address this issue proactively, people should be aware of their surroundings, which means the environment where they survive. With this motive, this research has predicted the AQI based on different air pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere. The dataset used for this research has been taken from the official website of CPCB. The dataset has the air pollutant concentration from 22 different monitoring stations in different cities of Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab. This data is checked for null values and outliers. But, the most important thing to note is the correct understanding and imputation of such values rather than ignoring or doing wrong imputation. The time series data has been used in this research which is tested for stationarity using The Dickey-Fuller test. Further different ML models like CatBoost, XGBoost, Random Forest, SVM regressor, time series model SARIMAX, and deep learning model LSTM have been used to predict AQI. For the performance evaluation of different models, I used MSE, RMSE, MAE, and R2. It is observed that Random Forest performed better as compared to other models. NTRODUCTION Putting all the life threats aside, air pollution is the deadliest health threat to all species. In other words, it can be called a silent killer. It is estimated by WHO, that around 7 million people die every year this is because of the presence of deadly fine particles in the air, which lead to diseases such as stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and respiratory infections, including pneumonia.


IAMCV Multi-Scenario Vehicle Interaction Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The acquisition and analysis of high-quality sensor data constitute an essential requirement in shaping the development of fully autonomous driving systems. This process is indispensable for enhancing road safety and ensuring the effectiveness of the technological advancements in the automotive industry. This study introduces the Interaction of Autonomous and Manually-Controlled Vehicles (IAMCV) dataset, a novel and extensive dataset focused on inter-vehicle interactions. The dataset, enriched with a sophisticated array of sensors such as Light Detection and Ranging, cameras, Inertial Measurement Unit/Global Positioning System, and vehicle bus data acquisition, provides a comprehensive representation of real-world driving scenarios that include roundabouts, intersections, country roads, and highways, recorded across diverse locations in Germany. Furthermore, the study shows the versatility of the IAMCV dataset through several proof-of-concept use cases. Firstly, an unsupervised trajectory clustering algorithm illustrates the dataset's capability in categorizing vehicle movements without the need for labeled training data. Secondly, we compare an online camera calibration method with the Robot Operating System-based standard, using images captured in the dataset. Finally, a preliminary test employing the YOLOv8 object-detection model is conducted, augmented by reflections on the transferability of object detection across various LIDAR resolutions. These use cases underscore the practical utility of the collected dataset, emphasizing its potential to advance research and innovation in the area of intelligent vehicles.


Towards Consistent Natural-Language Explanations via Explanation-Consistency Finetuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) often generate convincing, fluent explanations. However, different from humans, they often generate inconsistent explanations on different inputs. For example, an LLM may generate the explanation "all birds can fly" when answering the question "Can sparrows fly?" but meanwhile answer "no" to the related question "Can penguins fly?". Explanations should be consistent across related examples so that they allow a human to simulate the LLM's decision process on multiple examples. We propose explanation-consistency finetuning (EC-finetuning), a method that adapts LLMs to generate more consistent natural-language explanations on related examples. EC-finetuning involves finetuning LLMs on synthetic data that is carefully constructed to contain consistent explanations. Across a variety of question-answering datasets in various domains, EC-finetuning yields a 10.0% relative explanation consistency improvement on four finetuning datasets, and generalizes to seven out-of-distribution datasets not seen during finetuning (+4.5% relative). Code is available at https://github.com/yandachen/explanation-consistency-finetuning .


COVID-19 Imposes Rethinking of Conferencing -- Environmental Impact Assessment of Artificial Intelligence Conferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It has been noticed that through COVID-19 greenhouse gas emissions had a sudden reduction. Based on this significant observation, we decided to conduct a research to quantify the impact of scientific conferences' air-travelling, explore and suggest alternative ways for greener conferences to re-duce the global carbon footprint. Specifically, we focused on the most popular conferences for the Artificial Intelligence community based on their scientific impact factor, their scale, and the well-organized proceedings towards measuring the impact of air travelling participation. This is the first time that systematic quantification of a state-of-the-art subject like Artificial Intelligence takes place to define its conferencing footprint in the broader frames of environmental awareness. Our findings highlight that the virtual way is the first on the list of green conferences' conduction although there are serious concerns about it. Alternatives to optimal conferences' location selection have demonstrated savings on air-travelling CO2 emissions of up to 63.9%.


Do Models Explain Themselves? Counterfactual Simulatability of Natural Language Explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate $\textbf{counterfactual simulatability}$ of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.


A Study on the Appropriate size of the Mongolian general corpus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study aims to determine the appropriate size of the Mongolian general corpus. This study used the Heaps function and Type Token Ratio to determine the appropriate size of the Mongolian general corpus. The sample corpus of 906,064 tokens comprised texts from 10 domains of newspaper politics, economy, society, culture, sports, world articles and laws, middle and high school literature textbooks, interview articles, and podcast transcripts. First, we estimated the Heaps function with this sample corpus. Next, we observed changes in the number of types and TTR values while increasing the number of tokens by one million using the estimated Heaps function. As a result of observation, we found that the TTR value hardly changed when the number of tokens exceeded from 39 to 42 million. Thus, we conclude that an appropriate size for a Mongolian general corpus is from 39 to 42 million tokens.