Terra Drone's Terra A1 interceptor drone has entered active combat use in Ukraine after being deployed to a military unit tasked with countering Russian uncrewed aerial systems. Japanese drone company Terra Drone said its Terra A1 interceptor -- developed with its Ukrainian partner Amazing Drones -- has moved from the lab to the front lines, entering active combat use in Ukraine against Russian-made Shahed drones. "Deployment for defense purposes has already begun with a military unit, and evaluation and feedback collection under actual operating conditions are currently under way," the Tokyo-based firm, which recently made a strategic investment in the Ukrainian startup, said in a recent statement. Terra Drone explained that this initial "real-world operational deployment" -- carried out via its local partner -- will follow a phased rollout, where new equipment is first issued to a single unit and then expanded to further deployments depending on evaluations from the field. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.

Gaussian process ($GP$) regression is a widely used non-parametric modeling tool, but its cubic complexity in the training size limits its use on massive data sets. A practical remedy is to predict using only the nearest neighbours of each test point, as in Nearest Neighbour Gaussian Process ($NNGP$) regression for geospatial problems and the related scalable $GPnn$ method for more general machine-learning applications. Despite their strong empirical performance, the large-$n$ theory of $NNGP/GPnn$ remains incomplete. We develop a theoretical framework for $NNGP$ and $GPnn$ regression. Under mild regularity assumptions, we derive almost sure pointwise limits for three key predictive criteria: mean squared error ($MSE$), calibration coefficient ($CAL$), and negative log-likelihood ($NLL$). We then study the $L_2$-risk, prove universal consistency, and show that the risk attains Stone's minimax rate $n^{-2α/(2p+d)}$, where $α$ and $p$ capture regularity of the regression problem. We also prove uniform convergence of $MSE$ over compact hyper-parameter sets and show that its derivatives with respect to lengthscale, kernel scale, and noise variance vanish asymptotically, with explicit rates. This explains the observed robustness of $GPnn$ to hyper-parameter tuning. These results provide a rigorous statistical foundation for $NNGP/GPnn$ as a highly scalable and principled alternative to full $GP$ models.

Damped sinusoidal oscillations are widely observed in many physical systems, and their analysis provides access to underlying physical properties. However, parameter estimation becomes difficult when the signal decays rapidly, multiple components are superposed, and observational noise is present. In this study, we develop an autoencoder-based method that uses the latent space to estimate the frequency, phase, decay time, and amplitude of each component in noisy multi-component damped sinusoidal signals. We investigate multi-component cases under Gaussian-distribution training and further examine the effect of the training-data distribution through comparisons between Gaussian and uniform training. The performance is evaluated through waveform reconstruction and parameter-estimation accuracy. We find that the proposed method can estimate the parameters with high accuracy even in challenging setups, such as those involving a subdominant component or nearly opposite-phase components, while remaining reasonably robust when the training distribution is less informative. This demonstrates its potential as a tool for analyzing short-duration, noisy signals.

We consider the problem of conditional independence (CI) testing and adopt a kernel-based approach. Kernel-based CI tests embed variables in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, regress their embeddings on the conditioning variables, and test the resulting residuals for marginal independence. This approach yields tests that are sensitive to a broad range of conditional dependencies. Existing methods, however, rely heavily on kernel ridge regression, which is computationally expensive when properly tuned and yields poorly calibrated tests when left untuned, which limits their practical usefulness. We propose the Generalised Kernel Covariance Measure (GKCM), a regression-model-agnostic kernel-based CI test that accommodates a broad class of regression estimators. Building on the Generalised Hilbertian Covariance Measure framework (Lundborg et al., 2022), we characterise conditions under which GKCM satisfies uniform asymptotic level guarantees. In simulations, GKCM paired with tree-based regression models frequently outperforms state-of-the-art CI tests across a diverse range of data-generating processes, achieving better type I error control and competitive or superior power.

We present mlr3mbo, a comprehensive and modular toolbox for Bayesian optimization in R. mlr3mbo supports single- and multi-objective optimization, multi-point proposals, batch and asynchronous parallelization, input and output transformations, and robust error handling. While it can be used for many standard Bayesian optimization variants in applied settings, researchers can also construct custom BO algorithms from its flexible building blocks. In addition to an introduction to the software, its design principles, and its building blocks, the paper presents two extensive empirical evaluations of the software on the surrogate-based benchmark suite YAHPO Gym. To identify robust default configurations for both numeric and mixed-hierarchical optimization regimes, and to gain further insights into the respective impacts of individual settings, we run a coordinate descent search over the mlr3mbo configuration space and analyze its results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mlr3mbo achieves state-of-the-art performance by benchmarking it against a wide range of optimizers, including HEBO, SMAC3, Ax, and Optuna.

This paper focuses on the problem of unbounded density ratio estimation -- an understudied yet critical challenge in statistical learning -- and its application to covariate shift adaptation. Much of the existing literature assumes that the density ratio is either uniformly bounded or unbounded but known exactly. These conditions are often violated in practice, creating a gap between theoretical guarantees and real-world applicability. In contrast, this work directly addresses unbounded density ratios and integrates them into importance weighting for effective covariate shift adaptation. We propose a three-step estimation method that leverages unlabeled data from both the source and target distributions: (1) estimating a relative density ratio; (2) applying a truncation operation to control its unboundedness; and (3) transforming the truncated estimate back into the standard density ratio. The estimated density ratio is then employed as importance weights for regression under covariate shift. We establish rigorous, non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for both the proposed density ratio estimator and the resulting regression function estimator, demonstrating optimal or near-optimal convergence rates. Our findings offer new theoretical insights into density ratio estimation and learning under covariate shift, extending classical learning theory to more practical and challenging scenarios.

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression and treatment response that conventional summary measures miss. Motivated by a 26-week clinical trial comparing the closed-loop insulin delivery system t:slim X2 with standard therapy in children with type 1 diabetes, we propose a probabilistic framework to model the continuous-time evolution of time-indexed distributions using continuous glucose monitoring data (CGM) collected every five minutes. We represent the glucose distribution as a Gaussian mixture, with time-varying mixture weights governed by a neural ODE. We estimate the model parameter using a distribution-matching criterion based on the maximum mean discrepancy. The resulting framework is interpretable, computationally efficient, and sensitive to subtle temporal distributional changes. Applied to CGM trial data, the method detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics that are difficult to capture with traditional analytical approaches.

Patriot missile involved in Bahrain blast likely U.S.-operated, analysis finds Smoke rises following a strike on the Bapco Oil Refinery, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, on Sitra Island Bahrain, on March 9. | REUTERS An American-operated Patriot air defense battery likely fired the interceptor missile involved in a pre-dawn explosion that injured dozens of civilians and tore through homes in U.S.-ally Bahrain 10 days into the war on Iran, according to an analysis by academic researchers examined by Reuters. Both Bahrain and Washington have blamed an Iranian drone attack for the March 9 blast, which the Gulf kingdom said injured 32 people including children, some seriously. Commenting on the day of the attack, U.S. Central Command said on X that an Iranian drone struck a residential neighborhood in Bahrain. In response to questions, Bahrain on Saturday acknowledged for the first time that a Patriot missile was involved in the explosion over the Mahazza neighborhood on Sitra island, offshore from the capital Manama and also home to an oil refinery. In a statement, a Bahraini government spokesperson said the missile successfully intercepted an Iranian drone mid-air, saving lives. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to capture such conditional distributional treatment effects, and develop a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal in the local asymptotic sense. Using this, we develop a test for the global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions that accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), has provably valid type 1 error, and is consistent against fixed alternatives -- the first test, to our knowledge, with such guarantees in this setting. Furthermore, we derive exact closed-form expressions for two natural discrepancies (including the MMD), and provide a computationally efficient, permutation-free algorithm for our test.

We investigate the statistical performance and computational efficiency of the alternating minimization procedure for nonparametric tensor learning. Tensor modeling has been widely used for capturing the higher order relations between multimodal data sources. In addition to a linear model, a nonlinear tensor model has been received much attention recently because of its high flexibility. We consider an alternating minimization procedure for a general nonlinear model where the true function consists of components in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In this paper, we show that the alternating minimization method achieves linear convergence as an optimization algorithm and that the generalization error of the resultant estimator yields the minimax optimality. We apply our algorithm to some multitask learning problems and show that the method actually shows favorable performances.