Afghanistan
Algorithmic Contiguity from Low-Degree Heuristic II: Predicting Detection-Recovery Gaps
The low-degree polynomial framework has emerged as a powerful tool for providing evidence of statistical-computational gaps in high-dimensional inference. For detection problems, the standard approach bounds the low-degree advantage through an explicit orthonormal basis. However, this method does not extend naturally to estimation tasks, and thus fails to capture the \emph{detection-recovery gap phenomenon} that arises in many high-dimensional problems. Although several important advances have been made to overcome this limitation \cite{SW22, SW25, CGGV25+}, the existing approaches often rely on delicate, model-specific combinatorial arguments. In this work, we develop a general approach for obtaining \emph{conditional computational lower bounds} for recovery problems from mild bounds on low-degree testing advantage. Our method combines the notion of algorithmic contiguity in \cite{Li25} with a cross-validation reduction in \cite{DHSS25} that converts successful recovery into a hypothesis test with lopsided success probabilities. In contrast to prior unconditional lower bounds, our argument is conceptually simple, flexible, and largely model-independent. We apply this framework to several canonical inference problems, including planted submatrix, planted dense subgraph, stochastic block model, multi-frequency angular synchronization, orthogonal group synchronization, and multi-layer stochastic block model. In the first three settings, our method recovers existing low-degree lower bounds for recovery in \cite{SW22, SW25} via a substantially simpler argument. In the latter three, it gives new evidence for conjectured computational thresholds including the persistence of detection-recovery gaps. Together, these results suggest that mild control of low-degree advantage is often sufficient to explain computational barriers for recovery in high-dimensional statistical models.
An Optimal Sauer Lemma Over $k$-ary Alphabets
Hanneke, Steve, Meng, Qinglin, Moran, Shay, Shaeiri, Amirreza
The Sauer-Shelah-Perles Lemma is a cornerstone of combinatorics and learning theory, bounding the size of a binary hypothesis class in terms of its Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension. For classes of functions over a $k$-ary alphabet, namely the multiclass setting, the Natarajan dimension has long served as an analogue of VC dimension, yet the corresponding Sauer-type bounds are suboptimal for alphabet sizes $k>2$. In this work, we establish a sharp Sauer inequality for multiclass and list prediction. Our bound is expressed in terms of the Daniely--Shalev-Shwartz (DS) dimension, and more generally with its extension, the list-DS dimension -- the combinatorial parameters that characterize multiclass and list PAC learnability. Our bound is tight for every alphabet size $k$, list size $\ell$, and dimension value, replacing the exponential dependence on $\ell$ in the Natarajan-based bound by the optimal polynomial dependence, and improving the dependence on $k$ as well. Our proof uses the polynomial method. In contrast to the classical VC case, where several direct combinatorial proofs are known, we are not aware of any purely combinatorial proof in the DS setting. This motivates several directions for future research, which are discussed in the paper. As consequences, we obtain improved sample complexity upper bounds for list PAC learning and for uniform convergence of list predictors, sharpening the recent results of Charikar et al.~(STOC~2023), Hanneke et al.~(COLT~2024), and Brukhim et al.~(NeurIPS~2024).
Differentially Private Language Generation and Identification in the Limit
Mehrotra, Anay, Velegkas, Grigoris, Yu, Xifan, Zhou, Felix
We initiate the study of language generation in the limit, a model recently introduced by Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24], under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider the continual release model, where a generator must eventually output a stream of valid strings while protecting the privacy of the entire input sequence. Our first main result is that for countable collections of languages, privacy comes at no qualitative cost: we provide an $\varepsilon$-differentially-private algorithm that generates in the limit from any countable collection. This stands in contrast to many learning settings where privacy renders learnability impossible. However, privacy does impose a quantitative cost: there are finite collections of size $k$ for which uniform private generation requires $Ω(k/\varepsilon)$ samples, whereas just one sample suffices non-privately. We then turn to the harder problem of language identification in the limit. Here, we show that privacy creates fundamental barriers. We prove that no $\varepsilon$-DP algorithm can identify a collection containing two languages with an infinite intersection and a finite set difference, a condition far stronger than the classical non-private characterization of identification. Next, we turn to the stochastic setting where the sample strings are sampled i.i.d. from a distribution (instead of being generated by an adversary). Here, we show that private identification is possible if and only if the collection is identifiable in the adversarial model. Together, our results establish new dimensions along which generation and identification differ and, for identification, a separation between adversarial and stochastic settings induced by privacy constraints.
Enhancing Online Support Group Formation Using Topic Modeling Techniques
Barman, Pronob Kumar, Reynolds, Tera L., Foulds, James
Online health communities (OHCs) are vital for fostering peer support and improving health outcomes. Support groups within these platforms can provide more personalized and cohesive peer support, yet traditional support group formation methods face challenges related to scalability, static categorization, and insufficient personalization. To overcome these limitations, we propose two novel machine learning models for automated support group formation: the Group specific Dirichlet Multinomial Regression (gDMR) and the Group specific Structured Topic Model (gSTM). These models integrate user generated textual content, demographic profiles, and interaction data represented through node embeddings derived from user networks to systematically automate personalized, semantically coherent support group formation. We evaluate the models on a large scale dataset from MedHelp, comprising over 2 million user posts. Both models substantially outperform baseline methods including LDA, DMR, and STM in predictive accuracy (held out log likelihood), semantic coherence (UMass metric), and internal group consistency. The gDMR model yields group covariates that facilitate practical implementation by leveraging relational patterns from network structures and demographic data. In contrast, gSTM emphasizes sparsity constraints to generate more distinct and thematically specific groups. Qualitative analysis further validates the alignment between model generated groups and manually coded themes, showing the practical relevance of the models in informing groups that address diverse health concerns such as chronic illness management, diagnostic uncertainty, and mental health. By reducing reliance on manual curation, these frameworks provide scalable solutions that enhance peer interactions within OHCs, with implications for patient engagement, community resilience, and health outcomes.
Distributed Gradient Clustering: Convergence and the Effect of Initialization
Armacki, Aleksandar, Sharma, Himkant, Bajović, Dragana, Jakovetić, Dušan, Chakraborty, Mrityunjoy, Kar, Soummya
We study the effects of center initialization on the performance of a family of distributed gradient-based clustering algorithms introduced in [1], that work over connected networks of users. In the considered scenario, each user contains a local dataset and communicates only with its immediate neighbours, with the aim of finding a global clustering of the joint data. We perform extensive numerical experiments, evaluating the effects of center initialization on the performance of our family of methods, demonstrating that our methods are more resilient to the effects of initialization, compared to centralized gradient clustering [2]. Next, inspired by the $K$-means++ initialization [3], we propose a novel distributed center initialization scheme, which is shown to improve the performance of our methods, compared to the baseline random initialization.
Scalable Learning of Multivariate Distributions via Coresets
Ding, Zeyu, Ickstadt, Katja, Klein, Nadja, Munteanu, Alexander, Omlor, Simon
Efficient and scalable non-parametric or semi-parametric regression analysis and density estimation are of crucial importance to the fields of statistics and machine learning. However, available methods are limited in their ability to handle large-scale data. We address this issue by developing a novel coreset construction for multivariate conditional transformation models (MCTMs) to enhance their scalability and training efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first coresets for semi-parametric distributional models. Our approach yields substantial data reduction via importance sampling. It ensures with high probability that the log-likelihood remains within multiplicative error bounds of $(1\pm\varepsilon)$ and thereby maintains statistical model accuracy. Compared to conventional full-parametric models, where coresets have been incorporated before, our semi-parametric approach exhibits enhanced adaptability, particularly in scenarios where complex distributions and non-linear relationships are present, but not fully understood. To address numerical problems associated with normalizing logarithmic terms, we follow a geometric approximation based on the convex hull of input data. This ensures feasible, stable, and accurate inference in scenarios involving large amounts of data. Numerical experiments demonstrate substantially improved computational efficiency when handling large and complex datasets, thus laying the foundation for a broad range of applications within the statistics and machine learning communities.
Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to temporary Eid al-Fitr 'pause' in conflict
Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to temporary Eid al-Fitr'pause' in conflict Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a temporary "pause" in hostilities during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr this week, officials said, amid weeks of deadly violence between the neighbouring countries. Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said on Wednesday that the pause - set to run from midnight on Thursday (19:00 GMT on Wednesday) until midnight on Tuesday (19:00 GMT on Monday) - had been requested by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye. However, he warned that "in case of any cross-border attack, drone attack or any terrorist incident inside Pakistan, [operations] shall immediately resume with renewed intensity". Shortly after the announcement, a spokesperson for Afghanistan's Taliban government also said it would temporarily suspend military operations against Pakistan. The pause in fighting is set to begin just days after Afghanistan accused the Pakistani military of killing hundreds of people in an air strike on a drug rehabilitation centre in the country's capital, Kabul.