This paper provides a unique approach with AI algorithms to predict emerging stock markets volatility. Traditionally, stock volatility is derived from historical volatility,Monte Carlo simulation and implied volatility as well. In this paper, the writer designs a consolidated model with back-propagation neural network and genetic algorithm to predict future volatility of emerging stock markets and found that the results are quite accurate with low errors.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have become integral to decision making in various domains, including healthcare, finance, education, and law enforcement. However, concerns about fairness and bias in these systems pose significant ethical and social challenges. This study investigates the fairness of ML models applied to structured datasets in classification tasks, highlighting the potential for biased predictions to perpetuate systemic inequalities. A publicly available dataset from Kaggle was selected for analysis, offering a realistic scenario for evaluating fairness in machine learning workflows. To assess and mitigate biases, three prominent fairness libraries; Fairlearn by Microsoft, AIF360 by IBM, and the What If Tool by Google were employed. These libraries provide robust frameworks for analyzing fairness, offering tools to evaluate metrics, visualize results, and implement bias mitigation strategies. The research aims to assess the extent of bias in the ML models, compare the effectiveness of these libraries, and derive actionable insights for practitioners. The findings reveal that each library has unique strengths and limitations in fairness evaluation and mitigation. By systematically comparing their capabilities, this study contributes to the growing field of ML fairness by providing practical guidance for integrating fairness tools into real world applications. These insights are intended to support the development of more equitable machine learning systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising potential in the medical domain, assisting with tasks like clinical note generation and patient communication. However, current LLMs are limited to text-based communication, hindering their ability to interact with diverse forms of information in clinical environments. Despite clinical agents succeeding in diverse signal interaction, they are oriented to a single clinical scenario and hence fail for broader applications. To evaluate clinical agents holistically, we propose ClinicalAgent Bench~(CAB), a comprehensive medical agent benchmark consisting of 18 tasks across five key realistic clinical dimensions. Building on this, we introduce ReflecTool, a novel framework that excels at utilizing domain-specific tools within two stages. The first optimization stage progressively enlarges a long-term memory by saving successful solving processes and tool-wise experience of agents in a tiny pre-defined training set. In the following inference stage, ReflecTool can search for supportive successful demonstrations from already built long-term memory to guide the tool selection strategy, and a verifier improves the tool usage according to the tool-wise experience with two verification methods--iterative refinement and candidate selection. Extensive experiments on ClinicalAgent Benchmark demonstrate that ReflecTool surpasses the pure LLMs with more than 10 points and the well-established agent-based methods with 3 points, highlighting its adaptability and effectiveness in solving complex clinical tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly powerful and ubiquitous, but their stochastic nature poses challenges to the reliability of their outputs. While deterministic settings can improve consistency, they do not guarantee reliability, as a single sample from the model's probability distribution can still be misleading. Building upon the concept of LLM-as-a-judge, we introduce a novel framework for rigorously evaluating the reliability of LLM judgments, leveraging McDonald's omega. We evaluate the reliability of LLMs when judging the outputs of other LLMs on standard single-turn and multi-turn benchmarks, simultaneously investigating the impact of temperature on reliability. By analyzing these results, we demonstrate the limitations of fixed randomness and the importance of considering multiple samples, which we show has significant implications for downstream applications. Our findings highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of LLM reliability and the potential risks associated with over-reliance on single-shot evaluations. This work provides a crucial step towards building more trustworthy and reliable LLM-based systems and applications.

Attention heads are one of the building blocks of large language models (LLMs). Prior work on investigating their operation mostly focused on analyzing their behavior during inference for specific circuits or tasks. In this work, we seek a comprehensive mapping of the operations they implement in a model. We propose MAPS (Mapping Attention head ParameterS), an efficient framework that infers the functionality of attention heads from their parameters, without any model training or inference. We showcase the utility of MAPS for answering two types of questions: (a) given a predefined operation, mapping how strongly heads across the model implement it, and (b) given an attention head, inferring its salient functionality. Evaluating MAPS on 20 operations across 6 popular LLMs shows its estimations correlate with the head's outputs during inference and are causally linked to the model's predictions. Moreover, its mappings reveal attention heads of certain operations that were overlooked in previous studies, and valuable insights on function universality and architecture biases in LLMs. Next, we present an automatic pipeline and analysis that leverage MAPS to characterize the salient operations of a given head. Our pipeline produces plausible operation descriptions for most heads, as assessed by human judgment, while revealing diverse operations.

In recent years, Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) has gained traction in the most relevant research works and industrial applications, while also becoming involved in various fields of use. This paper offers a comprehensive review of GeoAI as a synergistic concept applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods and models to geospatial data. A preliminary study is carried out, identifying the methodology of the work, the research motivations, the issues and the directions to be tracked, followed by exploring how GeoAI can be used in various interesting fields of application, such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, disaster management and urban planning. Next, a statistical and semantic analysis is carried out, followed by a clear and precise presentation of the challenges facing GeoAI. Then, a concrete exploration of the future prospects is provided, based on several informations gathered during the census. To sum up, this paper provides a complete overview of the correlation between AI and the geospatial domain, while mentioning the researches conducted in this context, and emphasizing the close relationship linking GeoAI with other advanced concepts such as geographic information systems (GIS) and large-scale geospatial data, known as big geodata. This will enable researchers and scientific community to assess the state of progress in this promising field, and will help other interested parties to gain a better understanding of the issues involved.

Topic modeling is a key method in text analysis, but existing approaches are limited by assuming one topic per document or fail to scale efficiently for large, noisy datasets of short texts. We introduce Semantic Component Analysis (SCA), a novel topic modeling technique that overcomes these limitations by discovering multiple, nuanced semantic components beyond a single topic in short texts which we accomplish by introducing a decomposition step to the clustering-based topic modeling framework. We evaluate SCA on Twitter datasets in English, Hausa and Chinese. It achieves competetive coherence and diversity compared to BERTopic, while uncovering at least double the semantic components and maintaining a noise rate close to zero. Furthermore, SCA is scalable and effective across languages, including an underrepresented one.

Nowadays, Natural Language Processing (NLP) is an important tool for most people's daily life routines, ranging from understanding speech, translation, named entity recognition (NER), and text categorization, to generative text models such as ChatGPT. Due to the existence of big data and consequently large corpora for widely used languages like English, Spanish, Turkish, Persian, and many more, these applications have been developed accurately. However, the Kurdish language still requires more corpora and large datasets to be included in NLP applications. This is because Kurdish has a rich linguistic structure, varied dialects, and a limited dataset, which poses unique challenges for Kurdish NLP (KNLP) application development. While several studies have been conducted in KNLP for various applications, Kurdish NER (KNER) remains a challenge for many KNLP tasks, including text analysis and classification. In this work, we address this limitation by proposing a methodology for fine-tuning the pre-trained RoBERTa model for KNER. To this end, we first create a Kurdish corpus, followed by designing a modified model architecture and implementing the training procedures. To evaluate the trained model, a set of experiments is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the KNER model using different tokenization methods and trained models. The experimental results show that fine-tuned RoBERTa with the SentencePiece tokenization method substantially improves KNER performance, achieving a 12.8% improvement in F1-score compared to traditional models, and consequently establishes a new benchmark for KNLP.

Understanding the deep meanings of the Qur'an and bridging the language gap between modern standard Arabic and classical Arabic is essential to improve the question-and-answer system for the Holy Qur'an. The Qur'an QA 2023 shared task dataset had a limited number of questions with weak model retrieval. To address this challenge, this work updated the original dataset and improved the model accuracy. The original dataset, which contains 251 questions, was reviewed and expanded to 629 questions with question diversification and reformulation, leading to a comprehensive set of 1895 categorized into single-answer, multi-answer, and zero-answer types. Extensive experiments fine-tuned transformer models, including AraBERT, RoBERTa, CAMeLBERT, AraELECTRA, and BERT. The best model, AraBERT-base, achieved a MAP@10 of 0.36 and MRR of 0.59, representing improvements of 63% and 59%, respectively, compared to the baseline scores (MAP@10: 0.22, MRR: 0.37). Additionally, the dataset expansion led to improvements in handling "no answer" cases, with the proposed approach achieving a 75% success rate for such instances, compared to the baseline's 25%. These results demonstrate the effect of dataset improvement and model architecture optimization in increasing the performance of QA systems for the Holy Qur'an, with higher accuracy, recall, and precision.

Diffusion models have shown promise in text generation but often struggle with generating long, coherent, and contextually accurate text. Token-level diffusion overlooks word-order dependencies and enforces short output windows, while passage-level diffusion struggles with learning robust representation for long-form text. To address these challenges, we propose Segment-Level Diffusion (SLD), a framework that enhances diffusion-based text generation through text segmentation, robust representation training with adversarial and contrastive learning, and improved latent-space guidance. By segmenting long-form outputs into separate latent representations and decoding them with an autoregressive decoder, SLD simplifies diffusion predictions and improves scalability. Experiments on XSum, ROCStories, DialogSum, and DeliData demonstrate that SLD achieves competitive or superior performance in fluency, coherence, and contextual compatibility across automatic and human evaluation metrics comparing with other diffusion and autoregressive baselines. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of our segmentation and representation learning strategies.