Detecting when a neural sequence model does "interesting" computation is an open problem. The next token prediction loss is a poor indicator: Low loss can stem from trivially predictable sequences that are uninteresting, while high loss may reflect unpredictable but also irrelevant information that can be ignored by the model. We propose a better metric: measuring the model's ability to predict its own future hidden states. We show empirically that this metric -- in contrast to the next token prediction loss -- correlates with the intuitive interestingness of the task. To measure predictability, we introduce the architecture-agnostic "prediction of hidden states" (PHi) layer that serves as an information bottleneck on the main pathway of the network (e.g., the residual stream in Transformers). We propose a novel learned predictive prior that enables us to measure the novel information gained in each computation step, which serves as our metric. We show empirically that our metric predicts the description length of formal languages learned in-context, the complexity of mathematical reasoning problems, and the correctness of self-generated reasoning chains.

Efficient management of end-of-life (EoL) products is critical for advancing circularity in supply chains, particularly within the construction industry where EoL strategies are hindered by heterogenous lifecycle data and data silos. Current tools like Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) and Digital Product Passports (DPPs) are limited by their dependency on seamless data integration and interoperability which remain significant challenges. To address these, we present the Circular Construction Product Ontology (CCPO), an applied framework designed to overcome semantic and data heterogeneity challenges in EoL decision-making for construction products. CCPO standardises vocabulary and facilitates data integration across supply chain stakeholders enabling lifecycle assessments (LCA) and robust decision-making. By aggregating disparate data into a unified product provenance, CCPO enables automated EoL recommendations through customisable SWRL rules aligned with European standards and stakeholder-specific circularity SLAs, demonstrating its scalability and integration capabilities. The adopted circular product scenario depicts CCPO's application while competency question evaluations show its superior performance in generating accurate EoL suggestions highlighting its potential to greatly improve decision-making in circular supply chains and its applicability in real-world construction environments.

Effective epidemic modeling is essential for managing public health crises, requiring robust methods to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces a novel deep learning framework that advances time series forecasting for infectious diseases, with its application to COVID 19 data as a critical case study. Our hybrid approach integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to capture spatial and temporal dynamics of disease transmission across diverse regions. The CNN extracts spatial features from raw epidemiological data, while the LSTM models temporal patterns, yielding precise and adaptable predictions. To maximize performance, we employ a hybrid optimization strategy combining the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) to fine tune hyperparameters, such as learning rates, batch sizes, and training epochs enhancing model efficiency and accuracy. Applied to COVID 19 case data from 24 countries across six continents, our method outperforms established benchmarks, including ARIMA and standalone LSTM models, with statistically significant gains in predictive accuracy (e.g., reduced RMSE). This framework demonstrates its potential as a versatile method for forecasting epidemic trends, offering insights for resource planning and decision making in both historical contexts, like the COVID 19 pandemic, and future outbreaks.

IMPORTANCE Women are underdiagnosed and undertreated for cardiovascular disease. Automatic quantification of breast arterial calcification on screening mammography can identify women at risk for cardiovascular disease and enable earlier treatment and management of disease. OBJECTIVE To determine whether artificial-intelligence based automatic quantification of BAC from screening mammograms predicts cardiovascular disease and mortality in a large, racially diverse, multi-institutional population, both independently and beyond traditional risk factors and ASCVD scores. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 116,135 women from two healthcare systems (Emory Healthcare and Mayo Clinic Enterprise) who had screening mammograms and either experienced a major adverse cardiovascular event, death, or had at least 5 years of clinical follow-up. BAC was quantified using a novel transformer-based neural network architecture for semantic segmentation. BAC severity was categorized into four groups (no BAC, mild, moderate, and severe), with outcomes assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional-hazards models. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE), including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and all-cause mortality, adjusted for traditional risk factors and Atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk scores. RESULTS BAC severity was independently associated with MACE after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, with increasing hazard ratios from mild (HR 1.18-1.22),

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated enhanced performance through the \textit{Thinking then Responding} paradigm, where models generate internal thoughts before final responses (aka, System 2 thinking). However, existing research lacks a systematic understanding of the mechanisms underlying how thinking patterns affect performance across model sizes. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of various thinking types on model performance and introduce ThinkPatterns-21k, a curated dataset comprising 21k instruction-response pairs (QA) collected from existing instruction-following datasets with five thinking types. For each pair, we augment it with five distinct internal thinking patterns: one unstructured thinking (monologue) and four structured variants (decomposition, self-ask, self-debate and self-critic), while maintaining the same instruction and response. Through extensive evaluation across different model sizes (3B-32B parameters), we have two key findings: (1) smaller models (<30B parameters) can benefit from most of structured thinking patterns, while larger models (32B) with structured thinking like decomposition would degrade performance and (2) unstructured monologue demonstrates broad effectiveness across different model sizes. Finally, we released all of our datasets, checkpoints, training logs of diverse thinking patterns to reproducibility, aiming to facilitate further research in this direction.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable, ensuring that their self-generated explanations are faithful to their internal decision-making process is critical for safety and oversight. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive counterfactual faithfulness analysis across 62 models from 8 families, encompassing both pretrained and instruction-tuned variants and significantly extending prior studies of counterfactual tests. We introduce phi-CCT, a simplified variant of the Correlational Counterfactual Test, which avoids the need for token probabilities while explaining most of the variance of the original test. Our findings reveal clear scaling trends: larger models are consistently more faithful on our metrics. However, when comparing instruction-tuned and human-imitated explanations, we find that observed differences in faithfulness can often be attributed to explanation verbosity, leading to shifts along the true-positive/false-positive Pareto frontier. While instruction-tuning and prompting can influence this trade-off, we find limited evidence that they fundamentally expand the frontier of explanatory faithfulness beyond what is achievable with pretrained models of comparable size. Our analysis highlights the nuanced relationship between instruction-tuning, verbosity, and the faithful representation of model decision processes.

After more than a year of Israeli bombing, tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, and a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, the world was largely united in saying "enough is enough". United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 12667 in December was clear in its demand: An immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Countries as diverse as Vietnam, Zimbabwe and Colombia echoed that call. And yet, bucking that consensus were nine "no" votes – chief among them, as is typical when it comes to resolutions calling for Israel to adhere to international law or human rights, was the United States. The US has provided unwavering support to Israel throughout its war on Gaza, even as Israel faces accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and its prime minister has an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant to his name.

The powerful capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to their growing use in evaluating human-generated content, particularly in evaluating research ideas within academic settings. Existing solutions primarily rely on prompt-based LLM methods or fine-tuned lightweight language models for idea evaluation. However, these methods are often unstable and struggle to comprehend the complex semantic information embedded in the ideas, impeding their ability to perform high-quality evaluations. To address the above challenges, we propose GraphEval, a lightweight graph-based LLM framework for idea evaluation. Our insight is that a complex idea can be broken down into comprehensible viewpoint nodes using prompts from small LLMs. These viewpoint nodes can then be linked together through edges created from LLM-based relation extraction and/or BERT similarity scores. The created viewpoint-graph can be used to conveniently propagate scores across view-nodes to improve the robustness of the idea evaluations. In particular, we propose two lightweight graph-based methods for idea evaluation: (1) GraphEval-LP: a training-free label propagation algorithm that propagates evaluation scores from known view-nodes to unknown nodes; (2) GraphEval-GNN: a Graph Neural Networks (GNN) that is trained to predict the evaluation scores given the observed graph with minimal computation resources. Moreover, to overcome LLM's limitation in objectively assessing the novelty of ideas, we further propose a novelty detection model to GraphEval-GNN to enhance its capability in judging idea novelty. Experiments on two datasets show GraphEval improves F1 scores by at least 14% with low computation and API costs. Additionally, GraphEval can effectively detect plagiarized ideas.

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need? Abstract Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties. Finally, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility. Corresponding author Email address: xwu27@ncsu.edu Introduction In the past decade, there has been an unprecedented interest in machine learning (ML) among nuclear engineers. ML has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering research. ML is a subset of artificial intelligence (AI) that studies computer algorithms which improve automatically through experience (data). ML algorithms typically build a mathematical model based on training data and then make predictions without being explicitly programmed to do so. Its performance increases with experience; in other words, the machine learns. Deep learning (DL) is a subset of ML that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn representations from data without introducing hand-coded rules or human domain knowledge.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) enables efficient fine-tuning of pre-trained language models via low-rank matrix approximation, which is effective in many scenarios. However, its low-rank representation capacity is constrained in complex tasks or high-rank dependency settings, potentially limiting model adaptability. Addressing the expressive bottleneck of classical low-rank approximation in fine-tuning large language models, this paper proposes a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method based on a Quantum Weighted Tensor Hybrid Network (QWTHN), which leverages Quantum Neural Network (QNN). The study investigates quantum-classical hybrid parameter-efficient fine-tuning in low-rank spaces. QWTHN decomposes pre-trained weights into quantum neural network and tensor network representations, utilizing quantum state superposition and other methods to break through classical rank limitations. Experiments show that the proposed quantum fine-tuning technique for large models approaches or even surpasses the parameter efficiency of LoRA. On the CPsyCounD and R1-Distill-SFT datasets, QWTHN, compared to classical LoRA, reduces training loss by up to 15% while using 76% fewer parameters, and achieves an 8.4% performance improvement on the CPsyCounD test set. This research not only realizes lightweight and efficient adaptation of quantum resources to billion-parameter models but also validates the practical path of quantum hardware driven by large model tasks, laying the first engineering-ready technical foundation for future quantum-enhanced AGI systems.