Study Region: Goslar and G\"ottingen, Lower Saxony, Germany. Study Focus: In July 2017, the cities of Goslar and G\"ottingen experienced severe flood events characterized by short warning time of only 20 minutes, resulting in extensive regional flooding and significant damage. This highlights the critical need for a more reliable and timely flood forecasting system. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the impact of radar-based precipitation data on forecasting river water levels in Goslar. Additionally, the study examines how precipitation influences water level forecasts in G\"ottingen. The analysis integrates radar-derived spatiotemporal precipitation patterns with hydrological sensor data obtained from ground stations to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in improving flood prediction capabilities. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: A key innovation in this paper is the use of residual-based modeling to address the non-linearity between precipitation images and water levels, leading to a Spatiotemporal Radar-based Precipitation Model with residuals (STRPMr). Unlike traditional hydrological models, our approach does not rely on upstream data, making it independent of additional hydrological inputs. This independence enhances its adaptability and allows for broader applicability in other regions with RADOLAN precipitation. The deep learning architecture integrates (2+1)D convolutional neural networks for spatial and temporal feature extraction with LSTM for timeseries forecasting. The results demonstrate the potential of the STRPMr for capturing extreme events and more accurate flood forecasting.

Generative retrieval is an emerging approach in information retrieval that generates identifiers (IDs) of target data based on a query, providing an efficient alternative to traditional embedding-based retrieval methods. However, existing models are task-specific and fall short of embedding-based retrieval in performance. This paper proposes GENIUS, a universal generative retrieval framework supporting diverse tasks across multiple modalities and domains. At its core, GENIUS introduces modality-decoupled semantic quantization, transforming multimodal data into discrete IDs encoding both modality and semantics. Moreover, to enhance generalization, we propose a query augmentation that interpolates between a query and its target, allowing GENIUS to adapt to varied query forms. Evaluated on the M-BEIR benchmark, it surpasses prior generative methods by a clear margin. Unlike embedding-based retrieval, GENIUS consistently maintains high retrieval speed across database size, with competitive performance across multiple benchmarks. With additional re-ranking, GENIUS often achieves results close to those of embedding-based methods while preserving efficiency.

There has recently been considerable interest in incorporating information retrieval into large language models (LLMs). Retrieval from a dynamically expanding external corpus of text allows a model to incorporate current events and can be viewed as a form of episodic memory. Here we demonstrate that pre-processing the external corpus into semi-structured ''atomic facts'' makes retrieval more efficient. More specifically, we demonstrate that our particular form of atomic facts improves performance on various question answering tasks when the amount of retrieved text is limited. Limiting the amount of retrieval reduces the size of the context and improves inference efficiency.

Coral reefs are declining worldwide due to climate change and local stressors. To inform effective conservation or restoration, monitoring at the highest possible spatial and temporal resolution is necessary. Conventional coral reef surveying methods are limited in scalability due to their reliance on expert labor time, motivating the use of computer vision tools to automate the identification and abundance estimation of live corals from images. However, the design and evaluation of such tools has been impeded by the lack of large high quality datasets. We release the Coralscapes dataset, the first general-purpose dense semantic segmentation dataset for coral reefs, covering 2075 images, 39 benthic classes, and 174k segmentation masks annotated by experts. Coralscapes has a similar scope and the same structure as the widely used Cityscapes dataset for urban scene segmentation, allowing benchmarking of semantic segmentation models in a new challenging domain which requires expert knowledge to annotate. We benchmark a wide range of semantic segmentation models, and find that transfer learning from Coralscapes to existing smaller datasets consistently leads to state-of-the-art performance. Coralscapes will catalyze research on efficient, scalable, and standardized coral reef surveying methods based on computer vision, and holds the potential to streamline the development of underwater ecological robotics.

Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff tells'Hannity' what's next in Russia-Ukraine peace talks after President Donald Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Peace talks between U.S. and Russian delegations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine are underway Monday in Saudi Arabia, according to media reports. The discussions come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a delegation from his country had a "quite useful" meeting with an American team in Riyadh on Sunday. "Our team is working in a fully constructive manner, and the discussion is quite useful. The work of delegations continues. But no matter what we're discussing with our partners right now, Putin must be pushed to issue a real order to stop the strikes – because the one who brought this war must be the one to take it back," Zelenskyy said.

We introduce Browsing Lost Unformed Recollections, a tip-of-the-tongue known-item search and reasoning benchmark for general AI assistants. BLUR introduces a set of 573 real-world validated questions that demand searching and reasoning across multi-modal and multilingual inputs, as well as proficient tool use, in order to excel on. Humans easily ace these questions (scoring on average 98%), while the best-performing system scores around 56%. To facilitate progress toward addressing this challenging and aspirational use case for general AI assistants, we release 350 questions through a public leaderboard, retain the answers to 250 of them, and have the rest as a private test set.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an \emph{arbitrary} planted subgraph $\Gamma = \Gamma_n$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n, q_n)$, where the edge probability within $\Gamma$ is $p_n$. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities $p_n$ and $q_n$ are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting $\Gamma$, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on $\Gamma$ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of $p_n$ and $q_n$ as functions of $n$. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$ and $p_n-q_n =\Theta(q_n)$, with $\alpha\in[0,2]$, as well as the critical regime where $p_n=1-o(1)$ and $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$, both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of $\Gamma$. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus far\textemdash{}and many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of $q_n$.

The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture the relationships among variables when covariates display ambiguous functional forms or when spatial patterns are intricate and indeterminate. To tackle these issues, we propose an innovative Bayesian hierarchical modeling system. This method combines non-parametric techniques with an adapted dispersed count model based on renewal theory, facilitating the effective management of unequal dispersion, non-linear correlations, and complex geographic dependencies in count data. We illustrate the efficacy of our strategy by applying it to lung and bronchus cancer mortality data from Iowa, emphasizing environmental and demographic factors like ozone concentrations, PM2.5, green space, and asthma prevalence. Our analysis demonstrates considerable regional heterogeneity and non-linear relationships, providing important insights into the impact of environmental and health-related factors on cancer death rates. This application highlights the significance of our methodology in public health research, where precise modeling and forecasting are essential for guiding policy and intervention efforts. Additionally, we performed a simulation study to assess the resilience and accuracy of the suggested method, validating its superiority in managing dispersion and capturing intricate spatial patterns relative to conventional methods. The suggested framework presents a flexible and robust instrument for geographical count analysis, offering innovative insights for academics and practitioners in disciplines such as epidemiology, environmental science, and spatial statistics.

To a ddress these gaps, prior work has sought to evaluate the cultural representations within AI generated output, b ut with few exceptions [30, 67], mostly through quantified, metricized approaches to representation such as statistical similarities and benchmark-style scoring [49, 84]. However, the use of these methods presumes that representation is an o bjective construct with an empirical, definitive ground truth that outputs can be compared against [e.g., 42, 84] [fo r a critique of ground truth, see 59]. Given limitations of these computational methods, evaluation of representation is reduced to basic recognition or factual generation of artifacts. Even when human feedback on representation is sought, it is solicited through narrow, constrained, quantitative scales from anonymized crowdworkers who often do not have th e lived experiences to evaluate nuances of cultural representation of other cultures. However, this approach to measuring representation is in contravention to decades of scholarship in the social sciences that emphasizes the subjective nature of representation, where judgments about representation in visual media are constructed in conversation with the viewer's lived experiences and the broader context within which an image is Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of thi s work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee pr ovided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have enabled their successful application to a broad range of tasks. However, in information-intensive tasks, the prompt length can grow fast, leading to increased computational requirements, performance degradation, and induced biases from irrelevant or redundant information. Recently, various prompt compression techniques have been introduced to optimize the trade-off between reducing input length and retaining performance. We propose a holistic evaluation framework that allows for in-depth analysis of prompt compression methods. We focus on three key aspects, besides compression ratio: (i) downstream task performance, (ii) grounding in the input context, and (iii) information preservation. Through this framework, we investigate state-of-the-art soft and hard compression methods, showing that they struggle to preserve key details from the original prompt, limiting their performance on complex tasks. We demonstrate that modifying soft prompting methods to control better the granularity of the compressed information can significantly improve their effectiveness -- up to +23\% in downstream task performance, more than +8 BERTScore points in grounding, and 2.7x more entities preserved in compression.