Africa
QuEst: Enhancing Estimates of Quantile-Based Distributional Measures Using Model Predictions
Deng, Zhun, Zollo, Thomas P, Eyre, Benjamin, Inamdar, Amogh, Madras, David, Zemel, Richard
As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity observed data with a much larger set of imputed model outputs to estimate some quantity of interest. Yet current hybrid-inference tools target only means or single quantiles, limiting their applicability for many critical domains and use cases. We present QuEst, a principled framework to merge observed and imputed data to deliver point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for a wide family of quantile-based distributional measures. QuEst covers a range of measures, from tail risk (CVaR) to population segments such as quartiles, that are central to fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, and more. We extend QuEst to multidimensional metrics, and introduce an additional optimization technique to further reduce variance in this and other hybrid estimators. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through experiments in economic modeling, opinion polling, and language model auto-evaluation.
Minimax and Bayes Optimal Best-arm Identification: Adaptive Experimental Design for Treatment Choice
This study investigates adaptive experimental design for treatment choice, also known as fixed-budget best-arm identification. We consider an adaptive procedure consisting of a treatment-allocation phase followed by a treatment-choice phase, and we design an adaptive experiment for this setup to efficiently identify the best treatment arm, defined as the one with the highest expected outcome. In our designed experiment, the treatment-allocation phase consists of two stages. The first stage is a pilot phase, where we allocate each treatment arm uniformly with equal proportions to eliminate clearly suboptimal arms and estimate outcome variances. In the second stage, we allocate treatment arms in proportion to the variances estimated in the first stage. After the treatment-allocation phase, the procedure enters the treatment-choice phase, where we choose the treatment arm with the highest sample mean as our estimate of the best treatment arm. We prove that this single design is simultaneously asymptotically minimax and Bayes optimal for the simple regret, with upper bounds that match our lower bounds up to exact constants. Therefore, our designed experiment achieves the sharp efficiency limits without requiring separate tuning for minimax and Bayesian objectives.
Convergence and Sample Complexity of First-Order Methods for Agnostic Reinforcement Learning
Sherman, Uri, Koren, Tomer, Mansour, Yishay
Policy Optimization (PO) algorithms are a class of methods in Reinforcement Learning (RL; Sutton and Barto, 2018; Mannor et al., 2022) in which an agent's policy is iteratively updated to minimize long-term cost, as defined by the environment's value functions. Modern applications of PO methods (e.g., Lillicrap, 2015; Schulman et al., 2015; Akkaya et al., 2019; Ouyang et al., 2022) often involve large-scale environments that lack well-defined structure, and by that require function approximation techniques in order to learn efficiently. Typically, PO algorithms represent the agent's policy using neural network models--commonly referred to as actor networks. Notably, these setups are inherently agnostic: the learner searches for an assignment of network parameters that is competitive with the best achievable under the model, without any guarantee that the optimal policy is expressible by the actor architecture. Motivated by this, we consider the problem of agnostic policy learning in the general function approximation setup (Kakade, 2003; Krishnamurthy et al., 2025), where the learner is given optimization oracle access to a policy class Π and is required to find a policy that performs nearly as well as the best in-class policy. It is well known that Π-completeness and coverage conditions allow for sample efficient policy learning (Agarwal et al., 2019, 2021; Bhandari and Russo, 2024),
Conformal Information Pursuit for Interactively Guiding Large Language Models
Chan, Kwan Ho Ryan, Ge, Yuyan, Dobriban, Edgar, Hassani, Hamed, Vidal, René
A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.
Detection of Disengagement from Voluntary Quizzes: An Explainable Machine Learning Approach in Higher Distance Education
Parsaeifard, Behnam, Imhof, Christof, Pancar, Tansu, Comsa, Ioan-Sorin, Hlosta, Martin, Bergamin, Nicole, Bergamin, Per
--Students disengaging from their tasks can have serious long-term consequences, including academic drop-out. This is particularly relevant for students in distance education. One way to measure the level of disengagement in distance education is to observe participation in non-mandatory exercises in different online courses. In this paper, we detect student disengagement in the non-mandatory quizzes of 42 courses in four semesters from a distance-based university. We carefully identified the most informative student log data that could be extracted and processed from Moodle. Then, eight machine learning algorithms were trained and compared to obtain the highest possible prediction accuracy. Using the SHAP method, we developed an explainable machine learning framework that allows practitioners to better understand the decisions of the trained algorithm. The experimental results show a balanced accuracy of 91%, where about 85% of disengaged students were correctly detected. On top of the highly predictive performance and explainable framework, we provide a discussion on how to design a timely intervention to minimise disengagement from voluntary tasks in online learning. HE advent of distance education has made learning more flexible than ever before. Instead of having to attend classes and solve tasks at specific time, students are granted more freedom in choosing when to engage with their academic workload. This flexibility attracts many non-traditional student groups to higher education, including students that are employed outside of their studies, either fully or part-time. While deadlines are still set in place, students are responsible themselves for planning and time management, especially as far as non-mandatory tasks and exercises are concerned. This freedom can also lead to satisficing behaviour, meaning students only do the bare minimum to pass their courses (see e.g., [1], [2]). Bergamin are with the Institute for Research in Open-, Distance-and eLearning, Swiss Distance University of Applied Sciences, Brig, CH-3900, Switzerland (e-mail addresses: behnam.parsaeifard@ffhs.ch, N. Bergamin (e-mail address: nicole.bergamin@ffhs.ch) is with Department of Informatics, Swiss Distance University of Applied Sciences, Brig, CH-3900, Switzerland. Bergamin is also with the North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2531, South Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic is thought to have fostered this kind of behaviour even more [4]. Non-completion of voluntary tasks, such as optional quizzes, is a form of behavioural disengagement strongly linked to academic drop-out or attrition [5]-[8].
Voice of a Continent: Mapping Africa's Speech Technology Frontier
Elmadany, AbdelRahim, Kwon, Sang Yun, Toyin, Hawau Olamide, Inciarte, Alcides Alcoba, Aldarmaki, Hanan, Abdul-Mageed, Muhammad
Africa's rich linguistic diversity remains significantly underrepresented in speech technologies, creating barriers to digital inclusion. To alleviate this challenge, we systematically map the continent's speech space of datasets and technologies, leading to a new comprehensive benchmark SimbaBench for downstream African speech tasks. Using SimbaBench, we introduce the Simba family of models, achieving state-of-the-art performance across multiple African languages and speech tasks. Our benchmark analysis reveals critical patterns in resource availability, while our model evaluation demonstrates how dataset quality, domain diversity, and language family relationships influence performance across languages. Our work highlights the need for expanded speech technology resources that better reflect Africa's linguistic diversity and provides a solid foundation for future research and development efforts toward more inclusive speech technologies.
NativQA Framework: Enabling LLMs with Native, Local, and Everyday Knowledge
Alam, Firoj, Hasan, Md Arid, Laskar, Sahinur Rahman, Kutlu, Mucahid, Darwish, Kareem, Chowdhury, Shammur Absar
The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about cultural bias, fairness, and their applicability in diverse linguistic and underrepresented regional contexts. To enhance and benchmark the capabilities of LLMs, there is a need to develop large-scale resources focused on multilingual, local, and cultural contexts. In this study, we propose the NativQA framework, which can seamlessly construct large-scale, culturally and regionally aligned QA datasets in native languages. The framework utilizes user-defined seed queries and leverages search engines to collect location-specific, everyday information. It has been evaluated across 39 locations in 24 countries and in 7 languages -- ranging from extremely low-resource to high-resource languages -- resulting in over 300K Question-Answer (QA) pairs. The developed resources can be used for LLM benchmarking and further fine-tuning. The framework has been made publicly available for the community (https://gitlab.com/nativqa/nativqa-framework).
O_FT@EvalLLM2025 : étude comparative de choix de données et de stratégies d'apprentissage pour l'adaptation de modèles de langue à un domaine
Rousseau, Ismaël, Perroux, Claire, Adam, Pierre, Girault, Thomas, Delphin-Poulat, Lionel, Veyret, Morgan, Lecorvé, Gwénolé, Damnati, Géraldine
This paper presents the work carried out by the O_FT team, joint with Orange and Ouest-France, on adapting language models to the defense domain as part of the EvalLLM2025 challenge. This work focused on adapting the \texttt{Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3} model using classical techniques of continued pre-training and instruction-tuning. The core of our efforts is based on collecting, generating, and selecting data for these two stages as well as for model evaluation. Experiments show that our adapted models have better domain-specific knowledge and improved domain-specific task processing skills, along with comparable (or even superior) performance on general knowledge and skills. Considering the carbon footprint of our adaptations, this work demonstrates the feasibility of domain adaptation for relatively small models. -- Ce document présente les travaux réalisés par l'équipe O_FT conjointe à Orange et Ouest-France sur l'adaptation de modèles de langue au domaine de la défense dans le cadre du challenge EvalLLM2025. Ces travaux se sont concentrés sur l'adaptation du modèle \texttt{Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3} avec des techniques classiques de poursuite du pré-entraînement et d'affinage sur instructions. L'essentiel de nos travaux a porté sur la constitution, génération et sélection de données pour ces deux étapes ainsi que pour l'évaluation des modèles. Les expériences montrent que nos modèles adaptés ont de meilleures de connaissances de fond et une meilleure capacité de traitement de tâches sur le domaine de la défense, ainsi que des performances comparables (voire supérieures) sur des connaissances ou capacités généralistes. Mis au regard des empreintes carbones de nos adaptations, ces travaux démontrent ainsi la viabilité de l'adaptation à un domaine de modèles relativement petits.
AI-VaxGuide: An Agentic RAG-Based LLM for Vaccination Decisions
Zeggai, Abdellah, Traikia, Ilyes, Lakehal, Abdelhak, Boulesnane, Abdennour
Vaccination plays a vital role in global public health, yet healthcare professionals often struggle to access immunization guidelines quickly and efficiently. National protocols and WHO recommendations are typically extensive and complex, making it difficult to extract precise information, especially during urgent situations. This project tackles that issue by developing a multilingual, intelligent question-answering system that transforms static vaccination guidelines into an interactive and user-friendly knowledge base. Built on a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework and enhanced with agent-based reasoning (Agentic RAG), the system provides accurate, context-sensitive answers to complex medical queries. Evaluation shows that Agentic RAG outperforms traditional methods, particularly in addressing multi-step or ambiguous questions. To support clinical use, the system is integrated into a mobile application designed for real-time, point-of-care access to essential vaccine information. AI-VaxGuide model is publicly available on https://huggingface.co/VaxGuide
Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,226
Here are the key events on day 1,226 of Russia's war on Ukraine.Smoke is seen following what local authorities called a Ukrainian drone attack, in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Sergiyev Posad, outside Moscow, Russia July 4, 2025 [Head of the Sergiyev Posad municipal district Oksana Yerokhanova via Telegram/Handout via Reuters]Published On 4 Jul 20254 Jul 2025