Africa
SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis
Brockschmidt, Marie, Schröder, Maresa, Feuerriegel, Stefan
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff, an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that \survdiff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and downstream evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.
Global Convergence in Neural ODEs: Impact of Activation Functions
Gao, Tianxiang, Sun, Siyuan, Liu, Hailiang, Gao, Hongyang
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) have been successful in various applications due to their continuous nature and parameter-sharing efficiency. However, these unique characteristics also introduce challenges in training, particularly with respect to gradient computation accuracy and convergence analysis. In this paper, we address these challenges by investigating the impact of activation functions. We demonstrate that the properties of activation functions--specifically smoothness and nonlinearity--are critical to the training dynamics. Smooth activation functions guarantee globally unique solutions for both forward and backward ODEs, while sufficient nonlinearity is essential for maintaining the spectral properties of the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) during training. Together, these properties enable us to establish the global convergence of Neural ODEs under gradient descent in overparameterized regimes. Our theoretical findings are validated by numerical experiments, which not only support our analysis but also provide practical guidelines for scaling Neural ODEs, potentially leading to faster training and improved performance in real-world applications.
Multidimensional Uncertainty Quantification via Optimal Transport
Kotelevskii, Nikita, Goloburda, Maiya, Kondratyev, Vladimir, Fishkov, Alexander, Guizani, Mohsen, Moulines, Eric, Panov, Maxim
Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures targeting the same type of uncertainty (e.g., ensemble-based and density-based measures of epistemic uncertainty) may capture different failure modes. We take a multidimensional view on UQ by stacking complementary UQ measures into a vector. Such vectors are assigned with Monge-Kantorovich ranks produced by an optimal-transport-based ordering method. The prediction is then deemed more uncertain than the other if it has a higher rank. The resulting VecUQ-OT algorithm uses entropy-regularized optimal transport. The transport map is learned on vectors of scores from in-distribution data and, by design, applies to unseen inputs, including out-of-distribution cases, without retraining. Our framework supports flexible non-additive uncertainty fusion (including aleatoric and epistemic components). It yields a robust ordering for downstream tasks such as selective prediction, misclassification detection, out-of-distribution detection, and selective generation. Across synthetic, image, and text data, VecUQ-OT shows high efficiency even when individual measures fail. The code for the method is available at: https://github.com/stat-ml/multidimensional_uncertainty.
Hierarchical Graph Neural Network for Compressed Speech Steganalysis
Hemis, Mustapha, Kheddar, Hamza, Ghanem, Mohamed Chahine, Boudraa, Bachir
Steganalysis methods based on deep learning (DL) often struggle with computational complexity and challenges in generalizing across different datasets. Incorporating a graph neural network (GNN) into steganalysis schemes enables the leveraging of relational data for improved detection accuracy and adaptability. This paper presents the first application of a Graph Neural Network (GNN), specifically the GraphSAGE architecture, for steganalysis of compressed voice over IP (VoIP) speech streams. The method involves straightforward graph construction from VoIP streams and employs GraphSAGE to capture hierarchical steganalysis information, including both fine grained details and high level patterns, thereby achieving high detection accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed approach performs well in uncovering quantization index modulation (QIM)-based steganographic patterns in VoIP signals. It achieves detection accuracy exceeding 98 percent even for short 0.5 second samples, and 95.17 percent accuracy under challenging conditions with low embedding rates, representing an improvement of 2.8 percent over the best performing state of the art methods. Furthermore, the model exhibits superior efficiency, with an average detection time as low as 0.016 seconds for 0.5-second samples an improvement of 0.003 seconds. This makes it efficient for online steganalysis tasks, providing a superior balance between detection accuracy and efficiency under the constraint of short samples with low embedding rates.
Integrating Knowledge Graphs and Bayesian Networks: A Hybrid Approach for Explainable Disease Risk Prediction
Nzomo, Mbithe, Moodley, Deshendran
Multimodal electronic health record (EHR) data is useful for disease risk prediction based on medical domain knowledge. However, general medical knowledge must be adapted to specific healthcare settings and patient populations to achieve practical clinical use. Additionally, risk prediction systems must handle uncertainty from incomplete data and non-deterministic health outcomes while remaining explainable. These challenges can be alleviated by the integration of knowledge graphs (KGs) and Bayesian networks (BNs). We present a novel approach for constructing BNs from ontology-based KGs and multimodal EHR data for explainable disease risk prediction. Through an application use case of atrial fibrillation and real-world EHR data, we demonstrate that the approach balances generalised medical knowledge with patient-specific context, effectively handles uncertainty, is highly explainable, and achieves good predictive performance.
Follow the Path: Reasoning over Knowledge Graph Paths to Improve LLM Factuality
Zhang, Mike, Bjerva, Johannes, Biswas, Russa
We introduce fs1, a simple yet effective method that improves the factuality of reasoning traces by sourcing them from large reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1) and grounding them by conditioning on knowledge graph (KG) paths. We fine-tune eight instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) on 3.9K factually grounded reasoning traces and rigorously evaluate them on six complex open-domain question-answering (QA) benchmarks encompassing 23.9K questions. Our results demonstrate that our fs1-tuned model (32B parameters) consistently outperforms instruction-tuned counterparts with parallel sampling by 6-14 absolute points (pass@$16$). Our detailed analysis shows that fs1 considerably improves model performance over more complex questions (requiring 3 or more hops on KG paths) and numerical answer types compared to the baselines. Furthermore, in single-pass inference, we notice that smaller LLMs show the most improvements. While prior works demonstrate the effectiveness of reasoning traces primarily in the STEM domains, our work shows strong evidence that anchoring reasoning to factual KG paths is a critical step in transforming LLMs for reliable knowledge-intensive tasks.
A Global Analysis of Cyber Threats to the Energy Sector: "Currents of Conflict" from a Geopolitical Perspective
Sánchez, Gustavo, Elbez, Ghada, Hagenmeyer, Veit
The escalating frequency and sophistication of cyber threats increased the need for their comprehensive understanding. This paper explores the intersection of geopolitical dynamics, cyber threat intelligence analysis, and advanced detection technologies, with a focus on the energy domain. We leverage generative artificial intelligence to extract and structure information from raw cyber threat descriptions, enabling enhanced analysis. By conducting a geopolitical comparison of threat actor origins and target regions across multiple databases, we provide insights into trends within the general threat landscape. Additionally, we evaluate the effectiveness of cybersecurity tools -- with particular emphasis on learning-based techniques -- in detecting indicators of compromise for energy-targeted attacks. This analysis yields new insights, providing actionable information to researchers, policy makers, and cybersecurity professionals.
Multilingual Vision-Language Models, A Survey
Manea, Andrei-Alexandru, Libovický, Jindřich
This survey examines multilingual vision-language models that process text and images across languages. We review 31 models and 21 benchmarks, spanning encoder-only and generative architectures, and identify a key tension between language neutrality (consistent cross-lingual representations) and cultural awareness (adaptation to cultural contexts). Current training methods favor neutrality through contrastive learning, while cultural awareness depends on diverse data. Two-thirds of evaluation benchmarks use translation-based approaches prioritizing semantic consistency, though recent work incorporates culturally grounded content. We find discrepancies in cross-lingual capabilities and gaps between training objectives and evaluation goals.
Domain-Aware Speaker Diarization On African-Accented English
Okocha, Chibuzor, Ezema, Kelechi, Grant, Christan
This study examines domain effects in speaker diarization for African-accented English. We evaluate multiple production and open systems on general and clinical dialogues under a strict DER protocol that scores overlap. A consistent domain penalty appears for clinical speech and remains significant across models. Error analysis attributes much of this penalty to false alarms and missed detections, aligning with short turns and frequent overlap. We test lightweight domain adaptation by fine-tuning a segmentation module on accent-matched data; it reduces error but does not eliminate the gap. Our contributions include a controlled benchmark across domains, a concise approach to error decomposition and conversation-level profiling, and an adaptation recipe that is easy to reproduce. Results point to overlap-aware segmentation and balanced clinical resources as practical next steps.