Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing is the goal-oriented problem of efficiently selecting which acquisitions to make, and when and what decision to settle on. As its complement, inverse active sensing seeks to uncover an agent's preferences and strategy given their observable decision-making behavior. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unified framework for the general setting of evidence-based decision-making under endogenous, context-dependent time pressure---which requires negotiating (subjective) tradeoffs between accuracy, speediness, and cost of information. Using this language, we demonstrate how it enables modeling intuitive notions of surprise, suspense, and optimality in decision strategies (the forward problem). Finally, we illustrate how this formulation enables understanding decision-making behavior by quantifying preferences implicit in observed decision strategies (the inverse problem).

Compartmental models are used for predicting the scale and duration of epidemics, estimating epidemiological parameters such as reproduction numbers, and guiding outbreak control measures [Brauer, 2008, O'Neill, 2010, Kucharski et al., 2020]. They are increasingly important because they allow joint modelling of disease dynamics and multimodal data, such as medical test results, cell phone and transport flow data [Rubrichi et al., 2018, Wu et al., 2020], census and demographic information [Prem et al., 2020]. However, statistical inference in stochastic variants of compartmental models is a major computational challenge [Bretó, 2018]. The likelihood function for model parameters is usually intractable because it involves summation over a prohibitively large number of configurations of latent variables representing counts of subpopulations in disease states which cannot be observed directly. This has lead to the recent development of sophisticated computational methods for approximate inference involving various forms of stochastic simulation [Funk and King, 2020].

The Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) is an important milestone in the ongoing effort to build a theory for deep learning. Its prediction that sufficiently wide neural networks behave as kernel methods, or equivalently as random feature models, has been confirmed empirically for certain wide architectures. It remains an open question how well NTK theory models standard neural network architectures of widths common in practice, trained on complex datasets such as ImageNet. We study this question empirically for two well-known convolutional neural network architectures, namely AlexNet and LeNet, and find that their behavior deviates significantly from their finite-width NTK counterparts. For wider versions of these networks, where the number of channels and widths of fully-connected layers are increased, the deviation decreases.

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural productivity, water resource management, transportation and aviation systems, and emergency planning for extreme weather events. However, SSF is considered more challenging than either weather prediction or even seasonal prediction. In this paper, we carefully study a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches for SSF over the US mainland. While atmosphere-land-ocean couplings and the limited amount of good quality data makes it hard to apply black-box ML naively, we show that with carefully constructed feature representations, even linear regression models, e.g., Lasso, can be made to perform well. Among a broad suite of 10 ML approaches considered, gradient boosting performs the best, and deep learning (DL) methods show some promise with careful architecture choices. Overall, suitable ML methods are able to outperform the climatological baseline, i.e., predictions based on the 30-year average at a given location and time. Further, based on studying feature importance, ocean (especially indices based on climatic oscillations such as El Nino) and land (soil moisture) covariates are found to be predictive, whereas atmospheric covariates are not considered helpful.

We propose a novel framework seamlessly providing key properties of both neural nets (learning) and symbolic logic (knowledge and reasoning). Every neuron has a meaning as a component of a formula in a weighted real-valued logic, yielding a highly intepretable disentangled representation. Inference is omnidirectional rather than focused on predefined target variables, and corresponds to logical reasoning, including classical first-order logic theorem proving as a special case. The model is end-to-end differentiable, and learning minimizes a novel loss function capturing logical contradiction, yielding resilience to inconsistent knowledge. It also enables the open-world assumption by maintaining bounds on truth values which can have probabilistic semantics, yielding resilience to incomplete knowledge.

Image classification is central to the big data revolution in medicine. Improved information processing methods for diagnosis and classification of digital medical images have shown to be successful via deep learning approaches. As this field is explored, there are limitations to the performance of traditional supervised classifiers. This paper outlines an approach that is different from the current medical image classification tasks that view the issue as multi-class classification. We performed a hierarchical classification using our Hierarchical Medical Image classification (HMIC) approach. HMIC uses stacks of deep learning models to give particular comprehension at each level of the clinical picture hierarchy. For testing our performance, we use biopsy of the small bowel images that contain three categories in the parent level (Celiac Disease, Environmental Enteropathy, and histologically normal controls). For the child level, Celiac Disease Severity is classified into 4 classes (I, IIIa, IIIb, and IIIC).

Machine learning is a powerful tool for predicting human-related outcomes, from credit scores to heart attack risks. But when deployed, learned models also affect how users act in order to improve outcomes, whether predicted or real. The standard approach to learning is agnostic to induced user actions and provides no guarantees as to the effect of actions. We provide a framework for learning predictors that are both accurate and promote good actions. For this, we introduce look-ahead regularization which, by anticipating user actions, encourages predictive models to also induce actions that improve outcomes. This regularization carefully tailors the uncertainty estimates governing confidence in this improvement to the distribution of model-induced actions. We report the results of experiments on real and synthetic data that show the effectiveness of this approach.

Clinical methods that assess gait in Parkinson's Disease (PD) are mostly qualitative. Quantitative methods necessitate costly instrumentation or cumbersome wearable devices, which limits their usability. Only few of these methods can discriminate different stages in PD progression. This study applies machine learning methods to discriminate six stages of PD. The data was acquired by low cost walker-mounted sensors in an experiment at a movement disorders clinic and the PD stages were clinically labeled. A large set of features, some unique to this study are extracted and three feature selection methods are compared using a multi-class Random Forest (RF) classifier. The feature subset selected by the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method provided performance similar to the full feature set: 93% accuracy and had significantly shorter computation time. Compared to PCA, this method also enabled clinical interpretability of the selected features, an essential attribute to healthcare applications. All selected-feature sets are dominated by information theoretic features and statistical features and offer insights into the characteristics of gait deterioration in PD. The results indicate a feasibility of machine learning to accurately classify PD severity stages from kinematic signals acquired by low-cost, walker-mounted sensors and implies a potential to aid medical practitioners in the quantitative assessment of PD progression. The study presents a solution to the small and noisy data problem, which is common in most sensor-based healthcare assessments.

Given multiple input signals, how can we infer node importance in a knowledge graph (KG)? Node importance estimation is a crucial and challenging task that can benefit a lot of applications including recommendation, search, and query disambiguation. A key challenge towards this goal is how to effectively use input from different sources. On the one hand, a KG is a rich source of information, with multiple types of nodes and edges. On the other hand, there are external input signals, such as the number of votes or pageviews, which can directly tell us about the importance of entities in a KG. While several methods have been developed to tackle this problem, their use of these external signals has been limited as they are not designed to consider multiple signals simultaneously. In this paper, we develop an end-to-end model MultiImport, which infers latent node importance from multiple, potentially overlapping, input signals. MultiImport is a latent variable model that captures the relation between node importance and input signals, and effectively learns from multiple signals with potential conflicts. Also, MultiImport provides an effective estimator based on attentive graph neural networks. We ran experiments on real-world KGs to show that MultiImport handles several challenges involved with inferring node importance from multiple input signals, and consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving up to 23.7% higher NDCG@100 than the state-of-the-art method.

We present a new paradigm for Neural ODE algorithms, called ODEtoODE, where time-dependent parameters of the main flow evolve according to a matrix flow on the orthogonal group O(d). This nested system of two flows, where the parameter-flow is constrained to lie on the compact manifold, provides stability and effectiveness of training and provably solves the gradient vanishing-explosion problem which is intrinsically related to training deep neural network architectures such as Neural ODEs. Consequently, it leads to better downstream models, as we show on the example of training reinforcement learning policies with evolution strategies, and in the supervised learning setting, by comparing with previous SOTA baselines. We provide strong convergence results for our proposed mechanism that are independent of the depth of the network, supporting our empirical studies. Our results show an intriguing connection between the theory of deep neural networks and the field of matrix flows on compact manifolds.