Africa
Former chancellor George Osborne joins OpenAI
Former chancellor George Osborne is joining artificial intelligence (AI) giant OpenAI. He will lead its OpenAI for Countries programme, which is aimed at helping governments increase their AI capacity. Announcing his new London-based role, Osborne said it was a privilege to be joining the company. I recently asked myself the question: what's the most exciting and promising company in the world right now? The answer I believe is OpenAI, he said on X.
'Living rocks' suck up a lot of carbon
Super tough microbialites are some of the oldest evidence of life on Earth. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Among the tricky carnivorous plants, great white shark-killing orca whales, and other remarkable flora and fauna that call South Africa home is a remarkable group of "living rocks." Called microbialites, these communities are similar to coral reefs and are built up by microbes. These tiny living organisms absorb and release dissolved minerals into more solid rock-like forms.
Negotiations over US-UK tech deal stall
Negotiations over a technology deal between the UK and US have stalled due to stumbling blocks in wider trade negotiations between the two sides. The Technology Prosperity Deal - which was billed as historic when it was unveiled during US President Donald Trump's state visit in September - saw both countries pledge to co-operate in areas such as AI. However, talks on the agreement are now being held up because of US concerns about what it considers to be wider UK trade barriers. A government spokesperson said our special relationship with the US remains strong and the UK is firmly committed to ensuring the Tech Prosperity Deal delivers opportunity for hardworking people in both countries. The New York Times - which first reported the story - said there were broader disagreements between the two sides, including over digital regulations and food safety rules.
Ben & Jerry's row deepens as three board members removed
Ben & Jerry's row deepens as three board members removed Three members of Ben & Jerry's independent board will no longer be eligible to serve in their roles, after the ice cream company introduced a new set of governance practices. These include a nine-year limit set on board members' terms. Chair Anuradha Mittal, who earlier said she had no plans to resign under pressure, is among those affected. The move was criticised by the company's co-founder Ben Cohen, who called it a blatant power grab designed to strip the board of legal authority and independence. His remarks are the latest in a long-running row between Ben and Jerry's and its owner over the Cherry Garcia maker's social activism and the continued independence of its board.
Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,391
What is in the 28-point US plan for Ukraine? 'Ukraine is running out of men, money and time' Can the US get all sides to end the war? Why is Europe opposing Trump's peace plan? A Russian drone attack killed a 62-year-old Ukrainian man as he was riding a bicycle in the Velyka Pysarivka community of Ukraine's Sumy region, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. Russian forces launched 850 attacks on Ukraine's Zaporizhia region in a single day, injuring 14 people and damaging houses, cars and infrastructure, Governor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram.
UK launches taskforce to 'break down barriers' for women in technology
UK launches taskforce to'break down barriers' for women in technology The government has launched a new taskforce it says will help women enter, stay and lead in the UK tech sector. Led by technology secretary Liz Kendall, it will see female leaders from tech companies and organisations advise the government on how to boost diversity and economic growth in the industry. BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT, recently suggested women accounted for only 22% of those working in IT specialist roles in the UK. Ms Kendall said the Women in Tech group would break down the barriers that still hold too many people back. When women are inspired to take on a role in tech and have a seat at the table, the sector can make more representative decisions, build products that serve everyone, she said.
From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles
Ballarin, Giovanni, Grigoryeva, Lyudmila, Li, Yui Ching
Model combination is a powerful approach to achieve superior performance with a set of models than by just selecting any single one. We study both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of ensembles of Multi-Frequency Echo State Networks (MFESNs), which have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art macroeconomic time series forecasting results (Ballarin et al., 2024a). Hedge and Follow-the-Leader schemes are discussed, and their online learning guarantees are extended to the case of dependent data. In applications, our proposed Ensemble Echo State Networks show significantly improved predictive performance compared to individual MFESN models.
Machine learning to optimize precision in the analysis of randomized trials: A journey in pre-specified, yet data-adaptive learning
Balzer, Laura B., van der Laan, Mark J., Petersen, Maya L.
Covariate adjustment is an approach to improve the precision of trial analyses by adjusting for baseline variables that are prognostic of the primary endpoint. Motivated by the SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial (2013-2017), we tell our story of developing, evaluating, and implementing a machine learning-based approach for covariate adjustment. We provide the rationale for as well as the practical concerns with such an approach for estimating marginal effects. Using schematics, we illustrate our procedure: targeted machine learning estimation (TMLE) with Adaptive Pre-specification. Briefly, sample-splitting is used to data-adaptively select the combination of estimators of the outcome regression (i.e., the conditional expectation of the outcome given the trial arm and covariates) and known propensity score (i.e., the conditional probability of being randomized to the intervention given the covariates) that minimizes the cross-validated variance estimate and, thereby, maximizes empirical efficiency. We discuss our approach for evaluating finite sample performance with parametric and plasmode simulations, pre-specifying the Statistical Analysis Plan, and unblinding in real-time on video conference with our colleagues from around the world. We present the results from applying our approach in the primary, pre-specified analysis of 8 recently published trials (2022-2024). We conclude with practical recommendations and an invitation to implement our approach in the primary analysis of your next trial.
Amortized Causal Discovery with Prior-Fitted Networks
Sypniewski, Mateusz, Olko, Mateusz, Gajewski, Mateusz, Miłoś, Piotr
In recent years, differentiable penalized likelihood methods have gained popularity, optimizing the causal structure by maximizing its likelihood with respect to the data. However, recent research has shown that errors in likelihood estimation, even on relatively large sample sizes, disallow the discovery of proper structures. We propose a new approach to amortized causal discovery that addresses the limitations of likelihood estimator accuracy. Our method leverages Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) to amortize data-dependent likelihood estimation, yielding more reliable scores for structure learning. Experiments on synthetic, simulated, and real-world datasets show significant gains in structure recovery compared to standard baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate directly that PFNs provide more accurate likelihood estimates than conventional neural network-based approaches.
Whole-of-society effort needed to deter Russia threat, armed forces chief says
More UK families will know what sacrifice for our nation means as the nation seeks to deter a potential confrontation with Russia, the head of the military has said. Sir Richard Knighton said the country's security cannot be outsourced to the armed forces and requires a whole-of-society response, including harnessing UK universities and manufacturing. While the chief of the defence staff suggested there was only a remote chance of Russia directly attacking the UK, he told an event at the Royal United Services Institute that so-called hybrid attacks showed the threat was worsening . He referenced a Russian spy ship that was recently suspected of mapping undersea cables near UK waters. Every day the UK is subject to an onslaught of cyber-attacks from Russia and we know that Russian agents are seeking to conduct sabotage and have killed on our shores, he added.