Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) provide a compact and flexible framework to model very complex real-life phenomena. They combine the probability theory which deals with uncertainty and logical structure represented by a graph which allows one to cope with the computational complexity and also interpret and communicate the obtained knowledge. In the thesis, we consider two different types of PGMs: Bayesian networks (BNs) which are static, and continuous time Bayesian networks which, as the name suggests, have a temporal component. We are interested in recovering their true structure, which is the first step in learning any PGM. This is a challenging task, which is interesting in itself from the causal point of view, for the purposes of interpretation of the model and the decision-making process. All approaches for structure learning in the thesis are united by the same idea of maximum likelihood estimation with the LASSO penalty. The problem of structure learning is reduced to the problem of finding non-zero coefficients in the LASSO estimator for a generalized linear model. In the case of CTBNs, we consider the problem both for complete and incomplete data. We support the theoretical results with experiments.

Anomaly detection is critical for finding suspicious behavior in innumerable systems. We need to detect anomalies in real-time, i.e. determine if an incoming entity is anomalous or not, as soon as we receive it, to minimize the effects of malicious activities and start recovery as soon as possible. Therefore, online algorithms that can detect anomalies in a streaming manner are essential. We first propose MIDAS which uses a count-min sketch to detect anomalous edges in dynamic graphs in an online manner, using constant time and memory. We then propose two variants, MIDAS-R which incorporates temporal and spatial relations, and MIDAS-F which aims to filter away anomalous edges to prevent them from negatively affecting the internal data structures. We then extend the count-min sketch to a Higher-Order sketch to capture complex relations in graph data, and to reduce detecting suspicious dense subgraph problem to finding a dense submatrix in constant time. Using this sketch, we propose four streaming methods to detect edge and subgraph anomalies. Next, we broaden the graph setting to multi-aspect data. We propose MStream which detects explainable anomalies in multi-aspect data streams. We further propose MStream-PCA, MStream-IB, and MStream-AE to incorporate correlation between features. Finally, we consider multi-dimensional data streams with concept drift and propose MemStream. MemStream leverages the power of a denoising autoencoder to learn representations and a memory module to learn the dynamically changing trend in data without the need for labels. We prove a theoretical bound on the size of memory for effective drift handling. In addition, we allow quick retraining when the arriving stream becomes sufficiently different from the training data. Furthermore, MemStream makes use of two architecture design choices to be robust to memory poisoning.

Recent work has shown that fine-tuning large pre-trained language models on a collection of tasks described via instructions, a.k.a. instruction-tuning, improves their zero and few-shot generalization to unseen tasks. However, there is a limited understanding of the performance trade-offs of different decisions made during the instruction-tuning process. These decisions include the scale and diversity of the instruction-tuning benchmark, different task sampling strategies, fine-tuning with and without demonstrations, training using specialized datasets for reasoning and dialogue, and finally, the fine-tuning objectives themselves. In this paper, we characterize the effect of instruction-tuning decisions on downstream task performance when scaling both model and benchmark sizes. To this end, we create OPT-IML Bench: a large benchmark for Instruction Meta-Learning (IML) of 2000 NLP tasks consolidated into task categories from 8 existing benchmarks, and prepare an evaluation framework to measure three types of model generalizations: to tasks from fully held-out categories, to held-out tasks from seen categories, and to held-out instances from seen tasks. Through the lens of this framework, we first present insights about instruction-tuning decisions as applied to OPT-30B and further exploit these insights to train OPT-IML 30B and 175B, which are instruction-tuned versions of OPT. OPT-IML demonstrates all three generalization abilities at both scales on four different evaluation benchmarks with diverse tasks and input formats -- PromptSource, FLAN, Super-NaturalInstructions, and UnifiedSKG. Not only does it significantly outperform OPT on all benchmarks but is also highly competitive with existing models fine-tuned on each specific benchmark. We release OPT-IML at both scales, together with the OPT-IML Bench evaluation framework.

Relation extraction (RE) has achieved remarkable progress with the help of pre-trained language models. However, existing RE models are usually incapable of handling two situations: implicit expressions and long-tail relation types, caused by language complexity and data sparsity. In this paper, we introduce a simple enhancement of RE using $k$ nearest neighbors ($k$NN-RE). $k$NN-RE allows the model to consult training relations at test time through a nearest-neighbor search and provides a simple yet effective means to tackle the two issues above. Additionally, we observe that $k$NN-RE serves as an effective way to leverage distant supervision (DS) data for RE. Experimental results show that the proposed $k$NN-RE achieves state-of-the-art performances on a variety of supervised RE datasets, i.e., ACE05, SciERC, and Wiki80, along with outperforming the best model to date on the i2b2 and Wiki80 datasets in the setting of allowing using DS. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/YukinoWan/kNN-RE.

There is a lack of enough qualified teachers across Africa which hampers efforts to provide adequate learning support such as educational question answering (EQA) to students. An AI system that can enable students to ask questions via text or voice and get instant answers will make high-quality education accessible. Despite advances in the field of AI, there exists no robust benchmark or challenge to enable building such an (EQA) AI within the African context. Ghana's National Science and Maths Quiz competition (NSMQ) is the perfect competition to evaluate the potential of such an AI due to its wide coverage of scientific fields, variety of question types, highly competitive nature, and live, real-world format. The NSMQ is a Jeopardy-style annual live quiz competition in which 3 teams of 2 students compete by answering questions across biology, chemistry, physics, and math in 5 rounds over 5 progressive stages until a winning team is crowned for that year. In this position paper, we propose the NSMQ AI Grand Challenge, an AI Grand Challenge for Education using Ghana's National Science and Maths Quiz competition (NSMQ) as a case study. Our proposed grand challenge is to "Build an AI to compete live in Ghana's National Science and Maths Quiz (NSMQ) competition and win - performing better than the best contestants in all rounds and stages of the competition." We describe the competition, and key technical challenges to address along with ideas from recent advances in machine learning that could be leveraged to solve this challenge. This position paper is a first step towards conquering such a challenge and importantly, making advances in AI for education in the African context towards democratizing high-quality education across Africa.

Language models are trained on large volumes of text, and as a result their parameters might contain a significant body of factual knowledge. Any downstream task performed by these models implicitly builds on these facts, and thus it is highly desirable to have means for representing this body of knowledge in an interpretable way. However, there is currently no mechanism for such a representation. Here, we propose to address this goal by extracting a knowledge-graph of facts from a given language model. We describe a procedure for ``crawling'' the internal knowledge-base of a language model. Specifically, given a seed entity, we expand a knowledge-graph around it. The crawling procedure is decomposed into sub-tasks, realized through specially designed prompts that control for both precision (i.e., that no wrong facts are generated) and recall (i.e., the number of facts generated). We evaluate our approach on graphs crawled starting from dozens of seed entities, and show it yields high precision graphs (82-92%), while emitting a reasonable number of facts per entity.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data--what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery. Keywords: Earth observation; Causal inference; Neighborhood dynamics Word count: 12,207 Note: This work largely subsumes Jerzak, Connor T., Fredrik Johansson, and Adel Daoud.

The insufficient number of annotated thermal infrared (TIR) image datasets not only hinders TIR image-based deep learning networks to have comparable performances to that of RGB but it also limits the supervised learning of TIR image-based tasks with challenging labels. As a remedy, we propose a modified multidomain RGB to TIR image translation model focused on edge preservation to employ annotated RGB images with challenging labels. Our proposed method not only preserves key details in the original image but also leverages the optimal TIR style code to portray accurate TIR characteristics in the translated image, when applied on both synthetic and real world RGB images. Using our translation model, we have enabled the supervised learning of deep TIR image-based optical flow estimation and object detection that ameliorated in deep TIR optical flow estimation by reduction in end point error by 56.5\% on average and the best object detection mAP of 23.9\% respectively. Our code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/rpmsnu/sRGB-TIR.

The adversarial vulnerability of neural nets, and subsequent techniques to create robust models have attracted significant attention; yet we still lack a full understanding of this phenomenon. Here, we study adversarial examples of trained neural networks through analytical tools afforded by recent theory advances connecting neural networks and kernel methods, namely the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK), following a growing body of work that leverages the NTK approximation to successfully analyze important deep learning phenomena and design algorithms for new applications. We show how NTKs allow to generate adversarial examples in a ``training-free'' fashion, and demonstrate that they transfer to fool their finite-width neural net counterparts in the ``lazy'' regime. We leverage this connection to provide an alternative view on robust and non-robust features, which have been suggested to underlie the adversarial brittleness of neural nets. Specifically, we define and study features induced by the eigendecomposition of the kernel to better understand the role of robust and non-robust features, the reliance on both for standard classification and the robustness-accuracy trade-off. We find that such features are surprisingly consistent across architectures, and that robust features tend to correspond to the largest eigenvalues of the model, and thus are learned early during training. Our framework allows us to identify and visualize non-robust yet useful features. Finally, we shed light on the robustness mechanism underlying adversarial training of neural nets used in practice: quantifying the evolution of the associated empirical NTK, we demonstrate that its dynamics falls much earlier into the ``lazy'' regime and manifests a much stronger form of the well known bias to prioritize learning features within the top eigenspaces of the kernel, compared to standard training.

Water consumption remains a major concern among the world's future challenges. For applications like load monitoring and demand response, deep learning models are trained using enormous volumes of consumption data in smart cities. On the one hand, the information used is private. For instance, the precise information gathered by a smart meter that is a part of the system's IoT architecture at a consumer's residence may give details about the appliances and, consequently, the consumer's behavior at home. On the other hand, enormous data volumes with sufficient variation are needed for the deep learning models to be trained properly. This paper introduces a novel model for water consumption prediction in smart cities while preserving privacy regarding monthly consumption. The proposed approach leverages federated learning (FL) as a machine learning paradigm designed to train a machine learning model in a distributed manner while avoiding sharing the users data with a central training facility. In addition, this approach is promising to reduce the overhead utilization through decreasing the frequency of data transmission between the users and the central entity. Extensive simulation illustrate that the proposed approach shows an enhancement in predicting water consumption for different households.