Machine learning and statistical modeling methods were used to analyze the impact of climate change on financial wellbeing of fruit farmers in Tunisia and Chile. The analysis was based on face to face interviews with 801 farmers. Three research questions were investigated. First, whether climate change impacts had an effect on how well the farm was doing financially. Second, if climate change was not influential, what factors were important for predicting financial wellbeing of the farm. And third, ascertain whether observed effects on the financial wellbeing of the farm were a result of interactions between predictor variables. This is the first report directly comparing climate change with other factors potentially impacting financial wellbeing of farms. Certain climate change factors, namely increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, can regionally impact self-perceived financial wellbeing of fruit farmers. Specifically, increases in temperature and reduction in precipitation can have a measurable negative impact on the financial wellbeing of farms in Chile. This effect is less pronounced in Tunisia. Climate impact differences were observed within Chile but not in Tunisia. However, climate change is only of minor importance for predicting farm financial wellbeing, especially for farms already doing financially well. Factors that are more important, mainly in Tunisia, included trust in information sources and prior farm ownership. Other important factors include farm size, water management systems used and diversity of fruit crops grown. Moreover, some of the important factors identified differed between farms doing and not doing well financially. Interactions between factors may improve or worsen farm financial wellbeing.

Multimodal knowledge graph link prediction aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of link prediction tasks for multimodal data. However, for complex multimodal information and sparse training data, it is usually difficult to achieve interpretability and high accuracy simultaneously for most methods. To address this difficulty, a new model is developed in this paper, namely Interpretable Multimodal Knowledge Graph Answer Prediction via Sequence Modeling (IMKGA-SM). First, a multi-modal fine-grained fusion method is proposed, and Vgg16 and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) techniques are adopted to effectively extract text information from images and images. Then, the knowledge graph link prediction task is modelled as an offline reinforcement learning Markov decision model, which is then abstracted into a unified sequence framework. An interactive perception-based reward expectation mechanism and a special causal masking mechanism are designed, which "converts" the query into an inference path. Then, an autoregressive dynamic gradient adjustment mechanism is proposed to alleviate the insufficient problem of multimodal optimization. Finally, two datasets are adopted for experiments, and the popular SOTA baselines are used for comparison. The results show that the developed IMKGA-SM achieves much better performance than SOTA baselines on multimodal link prediction datasets of different sizes.

Contrastive deep clustering has recently gained significant attention with its ability of joint contrastive learning and clustering via deep neural networks. Despite the rapid progress, previous works mostly require both positive and negative sample pairs for contrastive clustering, which rely on a relative large batch-size. Moreover, they typically adopt a two-stream architecture with two augmented views, which overlook the possibility and potential benefits of multi-stream architectures (especially with heterogeneous or hybrid networks). In light of this, this paper presents a new end-to-end deep clustering approach termed Heterogeneous Tri-stream Clustering Network (HTCN). The tri-stream architecture in HTCN consists of three main components, including two weight-sharing online networks and a target network, where the parameters of the target network are the exponential moving average of that of the online networks. Notably, the two online networks are trained by simultaneously (i) predicting the instance representations of the target network and (ii) enforcing the consistency between the cluster representations of the target network and that of the two online networks. Experimental results on four challenging image datasets demonstrate the superiority of HTCN over the state-of-the-art deep clustering approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/dengxiaozhi/HTCN.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables.

Over the past few years, the use of machine learning models has emerged as a generic and powerful means for prediction purposes. At the same time, there is a growing demand for interpretability of prediction models. To determine which features of a dataset are important to predict a target variable $Y$, a Feature Importance (FI) method can be used. By quantifying how important each feature is for predicting $Y$, irrelevant features can be identified and removed, which could increase the speed and accuracy of a model, and moreover, important features can be discovered, which could lead to valuable insights. A major problem with evaluating FI methods, is that the ground truth FI is often unknown. As a consequence, existing FI methods do not give the exact correct FI values. This is one of the many reasons why it can be hard to properly interpret the results of an FI method. Motivated by this, we introduce a new global approach named the Berkelmans-Pries FI method, which is based on a combination of Shapley values and the Berkelmans-Pries dependency function. We prove that our method has many useful properties, and accurately predicts the correct FI values for several cases where the ground truth FI can be derived in an exact manner. We experimentally show for a large collection of FI methods (468) that existing methods do not have the same useful properties. This shows that the Berkelmans-Pries FI method is a highly valuable tool for analyzing datasets with complex interdependencies.

Realizing when a model is right for a wrong reason is not trivial and requires a significant effort by model developers. In some cases an input salience method, which highlights the most important parts of the input, may reveal problematic reasoning. But scrutinizing highlights over many data instances is tedious and often infeasible. Furthermore, analyzing examples in isolation does not reveal general patterns in the data or in the model's behavior. In this paper we aim to address these issues and go from understanding single examples to understanding entire datasets and models. The methodology we propose is based on aggregated salience maps, to which we apply clustering, nearest neighbor search and visualizations. Using this methodology we address multiple distinct but common model developer needs by showing how problematic data and model behavior can be identified and explained -- a necessary first step for improving the model.

In the field of reinforcement learning, because of the high cost and risk of policy training in the real world, policies are trained in a simulation environment and transferred to the corresponding real-world environment. However, the simulation environment does not perfectly mimic the real-world environment, lead to model misspecification. Multiple studies report significant deterioration of policy performance in a real-world environment. In this study, we focus on scenarios involving a simulation environment with uncertainty parameters and the set of their possible values, called the uncertainty parameter set. The aim is to optimize the worst-case performance on the uncertainty parameter set to guarantee the performance in the corresponding real-world environment. To obtain a policy for the optimization, we propose an off-policy actor-critic approach called the Max-Min Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm (M2TD3), which solves a max-min optimization problem using a simultaneous gradient ascent descent approach. Experiments in multi-joint dynamics with contact (MuJoCo) environments show that the proposed method exhibited a worst-case performance superior to several baseline approaches.

Central Banks Digital Currency (CBDC) is a digital currency or virtual asset backed by a central bank. According to the Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker, over 100 countries are currently exploring the CBDC opportunity and between 2020-2022 the central banks of many countries launched CBDC, while others started the pilot or research project. The Bahamas was the first country to launch CBDC which they named Sand Dollar. Nigeria launched e-Naira and Jamaica introduced JAM-DEX. China has been trialing Digital Yuan or e-CNY for a couple of years, Ghana is conducting eCedi pilot and India has started a pilot of both wholesale and retail CBDC Digital Rupee (e-Rupee) in the last quarter of 2022.

This dissertation proposes a framework of user-centered security in Natural Language Processing (NLP), and demonstrates how it can improve the accessibility of related research. Accordingly, it focuses on two security domains within NLP with great public interest. First, that of author profiling, which can be employed to compromise online privacy through invasive inferences. Without access and detailed insight into these models' predictions, there is no reasonable heuristic by which Internet users might defend themselves from such inferences. Secondly, that of cyberbullying detection, which by default presupposes a centralized implementation; i.e., content moderation across social platforms. As access to appropriate data is restricted, and the nature of the task rapidly evolves (both through lexical variation, and cultural shifts), the effectiveness of its classifiers is greatly diminished and thereby often misrepresented. Under the proposed framework, we predominantly investigate the use of adversarial attacks on language; i.e., changing a given input (generating adversarial samples) such that a given model does not function as intended. These attacks form a common thread between our user-centered security problems; they are highly relevant for privacy-preserving obfuscation methods against author profiling, and adversarial samples might also prove useful to assess the influence of lexical variation and augmentation on cyberbullying detection.

Despite strong performance in many sequence-to-sequence tasks, autoregressive models trained with maximum likelihood estimation suffer from exposure bias, i.e. the discrepancy between the ground-truth prefixes used during training and the model-generated prefixes used at inference time. Scheduled sampling is a simple and empirically successful approach which addresses this issue by incorporating model-generated prefixes into training. However, it has been argued that it is an inconsistent training objective leading to models ignoring the prefixes altogether. In this paper, we conduct systematic experiments and find that scheduled sampling, while it ameliorates exposure bias by increasing model reliance on the input sequence, worsens performance when the prefix at inference time is correct, a form of catastrophic forgetting. We propose to use Elastic Weight Consolidation to better balance mitigating exposure bias with retaining performance. Experiments on four IWSLT'14 and WMT'14 translation datasets demonstrate that our approach alleviates catastrophic forgetting and significantly outperforms maximum likelihood estimation and scheduled sampling baselines.