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Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern mobile devices have access to a wealth of data suitable for learning models, which in turn can greatly improve the user experience on the device. For example, language models can improve speech recognition and text entry, and image models can automatically select good photos. However, this rich data is often privacy sensitive, large in quantity, or both, which may preclude logging to the data center and training there using conventional approaches. We advocate an alternative that leaves the training data distributed on the mobile devices, and learns a shared model by aggregating locally-computed updates. We term this decentralized approach Federated Learning. We present a practical method for the federated learning of deep networks based on iterative model averaging, and conduct an extensive empirical evaluation, considering five different model architectures and four datasets. These experiments demonstrate the approach is robust to the unbalanced and non-IID data distributions that are a defining characteristic of this setting. Communication costs are the principal constraint, and we show a reduction in required communication rounds by 10-100x as compared to synchronized stochastic gradient descent.


Recursive deep learning framework for forecasting the decadal world economic outlook

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic ouput. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been used, but there are challenges in making decadal GDP forecasts given unexpected changes such as pandemics and wars. Deep learning models are well suited for modeling temporal sequences have been applied for time series forecasting. In this paper, we develop a deep learning framework to forecast the GDP growth rate of the world economy over a decade. We use Penn World Table as the source of our data, taking data from 1980 to 2019, across 13 countries, such as Australia, China, India, the United States and so on. We test multiple deep learning models, LSTM, BD-LSTM, ED-LSTM and CNN, and compared their results with the traditional time series model (ARIMA,VAR). Our results indicate that ED-LSTM is the best performing model. We present a recursive deep learning framework to predict the GDP growth rate in the next ten years. We predict that most countries will experience economic growth slowdown, stagnation or even recession within five years; only China, France and India are predicted to experience stable, or increasing, GDP growth.


Predicting mental health using social media: A roadmap for future development

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mental disorders such as depression and suicidal ideation are hazardous, affecting more than 300 million people over the world. However, on social media, mental disorder symptoms can be observed, and automated approaches are increasingly capable of detecting them. The considerable number of social media users and the tremendous quantity of user-generated data on social platforms provide a unique opportunity for researchers to distinguish patterns that correlate with mental status. This research offers a roadmap for analysis, where mental state detection can be based on machine learning techniques. We describe the common approaches for predicting and identifying the disorder using user-generated content. This research is organized according to the data collection, feature extraction, and prediction algorithms. Furthermore, we review several recent studies conducted to explore different features of candidate profiles and their analytical methods. Following, we debate various aspects of the development of experimental auto-detection frameworks for identifying users who suffer from disorders, and we conclude with a discussion of future trends. The introduced methods can help complement screening procedures, identify at-risk people through social media monitoring on a large scale, and make disorders easier to treat in the future.


Consistency is Key: Disentangling Label Variation in Natural Language Processing with Intra-Annotator Agreement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We commonly use agreement measures to assess the utility of judgements made by human annotators in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. While inter-annotator agreement is frequently used as an indication of label reliability by measuring consistency between annotators, we argue for the additional use of intra-annotator agreement to measure label stability over time. However, in a systematic review, we find that the latter is rarely reported in this field. Calculating these measures can act as important quality control and provide insights into why annotators disagree. We propose exploratory annotation experiments to investigate the relationships between these measures and perceptions of subjectivity and ambiguity in text items.


User-Interactive Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Offline reinforcement learning algorithms still lack trust in practice due to the risk that the learned policy performs worse than the original policy that generated the dataset or behaves in an unexpected way that is unfamiliar to the user. At the same time, offline RL algorithms are not able to tune their most important hyperparameter - the proximity of the learned policy to the original policy. We propose an algorithm that allows the user to tune this hyperparameter at runtime, thereby addressing both of the above mentioned issues simultaneously. This allows users to start with the original behavior and grant successively greater deviation, as well as stopping at any time when the policy deteriorates or the behavior is too far from the familiar one.


Generate rather than Retrieve: Large Language Models are Strong Context Generators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge-intensive tasks, such as open-domain question answering (QA), require access to a large amount of world or domain knowledge. A common approach for knowledge-intensive tasks is to employ a retrieve-then-read pipeline that first retrieves a handful of relevant contextual documents from an external corpus such as Wikipedia and then predicts an answer conditioned on the retrieved documents. In this paper, we present a novel perspective for solving knowledge-intensive tasks by replacing document retrievers with large language model generators. We call our method generate-then-read (GenRead), which first prompts a large language model to generate contextutal documents based on a given question, and then reads the generated documents to produce the final answer. Furthermore, we propose a novel clustering-based prompting method that selects distinct prompts, resulting in the generated documents that cover different perspectives, leading to better recall over acceptable answers. We conduct extensive experiments on three different knowledge-intensive tasks, including open-domain QA, fact checking, and dialogue system. Notably, GenRead achieves 71.6 and 54.4 exact match scores on TriviaQA and WebQ, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art retrieve-then-read pipeline DPR-FiD by +4.0 and +3.9, without retrieving any documents from any external knowledge source. Lastly, we demonstrate the model performance can be further improved by combining retrieval and generation. Our code and generated documents can be found at https://github.com/wyu97/GenRead.


Knowing About Knowing: An Illusion of Human Competence Can Hinder Appropriate Reliance on AI Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The dazzling promises of AI systems to augment humans in various tasks hinge on whether humans can appropriately rely on them. Recent research has shown that appropriate reliance is the key to achieving complementary team performance in AI-assisted decision making. This paper addresses an under-explored problem of whether the Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) among people can hinder their appropriate reliance on AI systems. DKE is a metacognitive bias due to which less-competent individuals overestimate their own skill and performance. Through an empirical study (N = 249), we explored the impact of DKE on human reliance on an AI system, and whether such effects can be mitigated using a tutorial intervention that reveals the fallibility of AI advice, and exploiting logic units-based explanations to improve user understanding of AI advice. We found that participants who overestimate their performance tend to exhibit under-reliance on AI systems, which hinders optimal team performance. Logic units-based explanations did not help users in either improving the calibration of their competence or facilitating appropriate reliance. While the tutorial intervention was highly effective in helping users calibrate their self-assessment and facilitating appropriate reliance among participants with overestimated self-assessment, we found that it can potentially hurt the appropriate reliance of participants with underestimated self-assessment. Our work has broad implications on the design of methods to tackle user cognitive biases while facilitating appropriate reliance on AI systems. Our findings advance the current understanding of the role of self-assessment in shaping trust and reliance in human-AI decision making. This lays out promising future directions for relevant HCI research in this community.


Experimenting with an Evaluation Framework for Imbalanced Data Learning (EFIDL)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Introduction Data imbalance is one of the crucial issues in big data analysis with fewer labels. For example, in real-world healthcare data, spam detection labels, and financial fraud detection datasets. Many data balance methods were introduced to improve machine learning algorithms' performance. Research claims SMOTE and SMOTE-based data-augmentation (generate new data points) methods could improve algorithm performance. However, we found in many online tutorials, the valuation methods were applied based on synthesized datasets that introduced bias into the evaluation, and the performance got a false improvement. In this study, we proposed, a new evaluation framework for imbalanced data learning methods. We have experimented on five data balance methods and whether the performance of algorithms will improve or not. Methods We collected 8 imbalanced healthcare datasets with different imbalanced rates from different domains. Applied 6 data augmentation methods with 11 machine learning methods testing if the data augmentation will help with improving machine learning performance. We compared the traditional data augmentation evaluation methods with our proposed cross-validation evaluation framework Results Using traditional data augmentation evaluation meta hods will give a false impression of improving the performance. However, our proposed evaluation method shows data augmentation has limited ability to improve the results. Conclusion EFIDL is more suitable for evaluating the prediction performance of an ML method when data are augmented. Using an unsuitable evaluation framework will give false results. Future researchers should consider the evaluation framework we proposed when dealing with augmented datasets. Our experiments showed data augmentation does not help improve ML prediction performance.


Interaction Decompositions for Tensor Network Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tensor network regression has emerged as a promising and active area of machine learning research, having achieved impressive results on common benchmark tasks such as the Movie 100K [1], MNIST [2][3][4][5], and Fashion MNIST [3][4][5] datasets. The effectiveness of these models can be attributed to the tensor-product transformation that is applied to the data features, which maps the original feature vector into an exponentially large vector space. By performing linear operations on this expanded feature space, tensor network models are able to generate regression outputs that are highly non-linear functions of the original features. In most tensor network models, the tensor-product transformation is constructed from a set of vector-valued functions that each act on only a single data feature. The form of these functions is important to the operation of the model, as it determines how regression on the transformed space is related to regression on the original feature space. Conventional wisdom regarding the choice of these functions can be traced back to the parallel works of Stoudenmire and Schwab [2] and Novikov et al. [1], who each proposed a different transformation scheme.


Screenwriters: How to use ChatGPT to Cause Trouble

#artificialintelligence

Select somebody's not-too-recent and excellent screenplay PDF you love. Check it has a proper synopsis in Wikipedia. Decide a new title, location, and a new bunch of characters (where they're from, their genders, etc). For example, CASABLANCA set in Futuristic Shanghai. Say to ChatGPT something like "Re-write the following story but set in your setting and with the main character etc etc", then afterward copy the Wikipeda synopsis in.