Researchers usually come up with new ideas only after thoroughly comprehending vast quantities of literature. The difficulty of this procedure is exacerbated by the fact that the number of academic publications is growing exponentially. In this study, we devise a framework based on concept co-occurrence for academic idea inspiration, which has been integrated into a research assistant system. From our perspective, the fusion of two concepts that co-occur in an academic paper can be regarded as an important way of the emergence of a new idea. We construct evolving concept graphs according to the co-occurrence relationship of concepts from 20 disciplines or topics. Then we design a temporal link prediction method based on masked language model to explore potential connections between different concepts. To verbalize the newly discovered connections, we also utilize the pretrained language model to generate a description of an idea based on a new data structure called co-occurrence citation quintuple. We evaluate our proposed system using both automatic metrics and human assessment. The results demonstrate that our system has broad prospects and can assist researchers in expediting the process of discovering new ideas.

Neural classifiers are non linear systems providing decisions on the classes of patterns, for a given problem they have learned. The output computed by a classifier for each pattern constitutes an approximation of the output of some unknown function, mapping pattern data to their respective classes. The lack of knowledge of such a function along with the complexity of neural classifiers, especially when these are deep learning architectures, do not permit to obtain information on how specific predictions have been made. Hence, these powerful learning systems are considered as black boxes and in critical applications their use tends to be considered inappropriate. Gaining insight on such a black box operation constitutes a one way approach in interpreting operation of neural classifiers and assessing the validity of their decisions. In this paper we tackle this problem introducing a novel methodology for discovering which features are considered relevant by a trained neural classifier and how they affect the classifier's output, thus obtaining an explanation on its decision. Although, feature relevance has received much attention in the machine learning literature here we reconsider it in terms of nonlinear parameter estimation targeted by a set membership approach which is based on interval analysis. Hence, the proposed methodology builds on sound mathematical approaches and the results obtained constitute a reliable estimation of the classifier's decision premises.

Measuring the intensity of events is crucial for monitoring and tracking armed conflict. Advances in automated event extraction have yielded massive data sets of "who did what to whom" micro-records that enable data-driven approaches to monitoring conflict. The Goldstein scale is a widely-used expert-based measure that scores events on a conflictual-cooperative scale. It is based only on the action category ("what") and disregards the subject ("who") and object ("to whom") of an event, as well as contextual information, like associated casualty count, that should contribute to the perception of an event's "intensity". This paper takes a latent variable-based approach to measuring conflict intensity. We introduce a probabilistic generative model that assumes each observed event is associated with a latent intensity class. A novel aspect of this model is that it imposes an ordering on the classes, such that higher-valued classes denote higher levels of intensity. The ordinal nature of the latent variable is induced from naturally ordered aspects of the data (e.g., casualty counts) where higher values naturally indicate higher intensity. We evaluate the proposed model both intrinsically and extrinsically, showing that it obtains comparatively good held-out predictive performance.

Few-shot or zero-shot fact verification only relies on a few or no labeled training examples. In this paper, we propose a novel method called ProToCo, to \underline{Pro}mpt pre-trained language models (PLMs) \underline{To} be \underline{Co}nsistent, for improving the factuality assessment capability of PLMs in the few-shot and zero-shot settings. Given a claim-evidence pair, ProToCo generates multiple variants of the claim with different relations and frames a simple consistency mechanism as constraints for making compatible predictions across these variants. We update PLMs by using parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), leading to more accurate predictions in few-shot and zero-shot fact verification tasks. Our experiments on three public verification datasets show that ProToCo significantly outperforms state-of-the-art few-shot fact verification baselines. With a small number of unlabeled instances, ProToCo also outperforms the strong zero-shot learner T0 on zero-shot verification. Compared to large PLMs using in-context learning (ICL) method, ProToCo outperforms OPT-30B and the Self-Consistency-enabled OPT-6.7B model in both few- and zero-shot settings.

Identifying the infection status of each individual during infectious diseases informs public health management. However, performing frequent individual-level tests may not be feasible. Instead, sparse and sometimes group-level tests are performed. Determining the infection status of individuals using sparse group-level tests remains an open problem. We have tackled this problem by extending graph-coupled hidden Markov models with individuals infection statuses as the hidden states and the group test results as the observations. We fitted the model to simulation datasets using the Gibbs sampling method. The model performed about 0.55 AUC for low testing frequencies and increased to 0.80 AUC in the case where the groups were tested every day. The model was separately tested on a daily basis case to predict the statuses over time and after 15 days of the beginning of the spread, which resulted in 0.98 AUC at day 16 and remained above 0.80 AUC until day 128. Therefore, although dealing with sparse tests remains unsolved, the results open the possibility of using initial group screenings during pandemics to accurately estimate individuals infection statuses.

Recently graph neural network (GNN) based algorithms were proposed to solve a variety of combinatorial optimization problems, including Maximum Cut problem, Maximum Independent Set problem and similar other problems~\cite{schuetz2022combinatorial},\cite{schuetz2022graph}. The publication~\cite{schuetz2022combinatorial} stirred a debate whether GNN based method was adequately benchmarked against best prior methods. In particular, critical commentaries~\cite{angelini2023modern} and~\cite{boettcher2023inability} point out that simple greedy algorithm performs better than GNN in the setting of random graphs, and in fact stronger algorithmic performance can be reached with more sophisticated methods. A response from the authors~\cite{schuetz2023reply} pointed out that GNN performance can be improved further by tuning up the parameters better. We do not intend to discuss the merits of arguments and counter-arguments in~\cite{schuetz2022combinatorial},\cite{angelini2023modern},\cite{boettcher2023inability},\cite{schuetz2023reply}. Rather in this note we establish a fundamental limitation for running GNN on random graphs considered in these references, for a broad range of choices of GNN architecture. These limitations arise from the presence of the Overlap Gap Property (OGP) phase transition, which is a barrier for many algorithms, both classical and quantum. As we demonstrate in this paper, it is also a barrier to GNN due to its local structure. We note that at the same time known algorithms ranging from simple greedy algorithms to more sophisticated algorithms based on message passing, provide best results for these problems \emph{up to} the OGP phase transition. This leaves very little space for GNN to outperform the known algorithms, and based on this we side with the conclusions made in~\cite{angelini2023modern} and~\cite{boettcher2023inability}.

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into categories of software, hardware, and sociopolitical factors. No step is guaranteed: For each step, we estimate a probability of success by 2043, conditional on prior steps being achieved. Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. Thoughtfully applying the cascading conditional probability approach to this question yields lower probability values than is often supposed. This framework helps enumerate the many future scenarios where humanity makes partial but incomplete progress toward transformative AGI.

We introduce Jambu, a cognate database of South Asian languages which unifies dozens of previous sources in a structured and accessible format. The database includes 287k lemmata from 602 lects, grouped together in 23k sets of cognates. We outline the data wrangling necessary to compile the dataset and train neural models for reflex prediction on the Indo-Aryan subset of the data. We hope that Jambu is an invaluable resource for all historical linguists and Indologists, and look towards further improvement and expansion of the database.

Pragmatic reference enables efficient interpersonal communication. Prior work uses simple reference games to test models of pragmatic reasoning, often with unidentified speakers and listeners. In practice, however, speakers' sociocultural background shapes their pragmatic assumptions. For example, readers of this paper assume NLP refers to "Natural Language Processing," and not "Neuro-linguistic Programming." This work introduces the Cultural Codes dataset, which operationalizes sociocultural pragmatic inference in a simple word reference game. Cultural Codes is based on the multi-turn collaborative two-player game, Codenames Duet. Our dataset consists of 794 games with 7,703 turns, distributed across 153 unique players. Alongside gameplay, we collect information about players' personalities, values, and demographics. Utilizing theories of communication and pragmatics, we predict each player's actions via joint modeling of their sociocultural priors and the game context. Our experiments show that accounting for background characteristics significantly improves model performance for tasks related to both clue giving and guessing, indicating that sociocultural priors play a vital role in gameplay decisions.

We consider the block coordinate descent methods of Gauss-Seidel type with proximal regularization (BCD-PR), which is a classical method of minimizing general nonconvex objectives under constraints that has a wide range of practical applications. We theoretically establish the worst-case complexity bound for this algorithm. Namely, we show that for general nonconvex smooth objectives with block-wise constraints, the classical BCD-PR algorithm converges to an epsilon-stationary point within O(1/epsilon) iterations. Under a mild condition, this result still holds even if the algorithm is executed inexactly in each step. As an application, we propose a provable and efficient algorithm for `Wasserstein CP-dictionary learning', which seeks a set of elementary probability distributions that can well-approximate a given set of d-dimensional joint probability distributions. Our algorithm is a version of BCD-PR that operates in the dual space, where the primal problem is regularized both entropically and proximally.