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Deep Dynamic Epidemiological Modelling for COVID-19 Forecasting in Multi-level Districts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements. Epidemiological equations based on the SEIR model simulate disease development. The traditional parameter estimation method to solve SEIR equations could not precisely fit real-world data due to different situations, such as social distancing policies and intervention strategies. Additionally, learning-based models achieve outstanding fitting performance, but cannot visualize mechanisms. Methods: Thus, we propose a deep dynamic epidemiological (DDE) method that combines epidemiological equations and deep-learning advantages to obtain high accuracy and visualization. The DDE contains deep networks to fit the effect function to simulate the ever-changing situations based on the neural ODE method in solving variants' equations, ensuring the fitting performance of multi-level areas. Results: We introduce four SEIR variants to fit different situations in different countries and regions. We compare our DDE method with traditional parameter estimation methods (Nelder-Mead, BFGS, Powell, Truncated Newton Conjugate-Gradient, Neural ODE) in fitting the real-world data in the cases of countries (the USA, Columbia, South Africa) and regions (Wuhan in China, Piedmont in Italy). Our DDE method achieves the best Mean Square Error and Pearson coefficient in all five areas. Further, compared with the state-of-art learning-based approaches, the DDE outperforms all techniques, including LSTM, RNN, GRU, Random Forest, Extremely Random Trees, and Decision Tree. Conclusion: DDE presents outstanding predictive ability and visualized display of the changes in infection rates in different regions and countries.


Solving Dialogue Grounding Embodied Task in a Simulated Environment using Further Masked Language Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Enhancing AI systems with efficient communication skills that align with human understanding is crucial for their effective assistance to human users. Proactive initiatives from the system side are needed to discern specific circumstances and interact aptly with users to solve these scenarios. In this research, we opt for a collective building assignment taken from the Minecraft dataset. Our proposed method employs language modeling to enhance task understanding through state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods using language models. These models focus on grounding multi-modal understandinging and task-oriented dialogue comprehension tasks. This focus aids in gaining insights into how well these models interpret and respond to a variety of inputs and tasks. Our experimental results provide compelling evidence of the superiority of our proposed method. This showcases a substantial improvement and points towards a promising direction for future research in this domain.


Feature Interactions Reveal Linguistic Structure in Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study feature interactions in the context of feature attribution methods for post-hoc interpretability. In interpretability research, getting to grips with feature interactions is increasingly recognised as an important challenge, because interacting features are key to the success of neural networks. Feature interactions allow a model to build up hierarchical representations for its input, and might provide an ideal starting point for the investigation into linguistic structure in language models. However, uncovering the exact role that these interactions play is also difficult, and a diverse range of interaction attribution methods has been proposed. In this paper, we focus on the question which of these methods most faithfully reflects the inner workings of the target models. We work out a grey box methodology, in which we train models to perfection on a formal language classification task, using PCFGs. We show that under specific configurations, some methods are indeed able to uncover the grammatical rules acquired by a model. Based on these findings we extend our evaluation to a case study on language models, providing novel insights into the linguistic structure that these models have acquired.


Modeling Hierarchical Reasoning Chains by Linking Discourse Units and Key Phrases for Reading Comprehension

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine reading comprehension (MRC) poses new challenges over logical reasoning, which aims to understand the implicit logical relations entailed in the given contexts and perform inference over them. Due to the complexity of logic, logical relations exist at different granularity levels. However, most existing methods of logical reasoning individually focus on either entity-aware or discourse-based information but ignore the hierarchical relations that may even have mutual effects. In this paper, we propose a holistic graph network (HGN) which deals with context at both discourse level and word level, as the basis for logical reasoning, to provide a more fine-grained relation extraction. Specifically, node-level and type-level relations, which can be interpreted as bridges in the reasoning process, are modeled by a hierarchical interaction mechanism to improve the interpretation of MRC systems. Experimental results on logical reasoning QA datasets (ReClor and LogiQA) and natural language inference datasets (SNLI and ANLI) show the effectiveness and generalization of our method, and in-depth analysis verifies its capability to understand complex logical relations.


Visually grounded few-shot word learning in low-resource settings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a visually grounded speech model that learns new words and their visual depictions from just a few word-image example pairs. Given a set of test images and a spoken query, we ask the model which image depicts the query word. Previous work has simplified this few-shot learning problem by either using an artificial setting with digit word-image pairs or by using a large number of examples per class. Moreover, all previous studies were performed using English speech-image data. We propose an approach that can work on natural word-image pairs but with less examples, i.e. fewer shots, and then illustrate how this approach can be applied for multimodal few-shot learning in a real low-resource language, Yoruba. Our approach involves using the given word-image example pairs to mine new unsupervised word-image training pairs from large collections of unlabelledspeech and images. Additionally, we use a word-to-image attention mechanism to determine word-image similarity. With this new model, we achieve better performance with fewer shots than previous approaches on an existing English benchmark. Many of the model's mistakes are due to confusion between visual concepts co-occurring in similar contexts. The experiments on Yoruba show the benefit of transferring knowledge from a multimodal model trained on a larger set of English speech-image data.


FDINet: Protecting against DNN Model Extraction via Feature Distortion Index

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) platforms have gained popularity due to their accessibility, cost-efficiency, scalability, and rapid development capabilities. However, recent research has highlighted the vulnerability of cloud-based models in MLaaS to model extraction attacks. In this paper, we introduce FDINET, a novel defense mechanism that leverages the feature distribution of deep neural network (DNN) models. Concretely, by analyzing the feature distribution from the adversary's queries, we reveal that the feature distribution of these queries deviates from that of the model's training set. Based on this key observation, we propose Feature Distortion Index (FDI), a metric designed to quantitatively measure the feature distribution deviation of received queries. The proposed FDINET utilizes FDI to train a binary detector and exploits FDI similarity to identify colluding adversaries from distributed extraction attacks. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate FDINET against six state-of-the-art extraction attacks on four benchmark datasets and four popular model architectures. Empirical results demonstrate the following findings FDINET proves to be highly effective in detecting model extraction, achieving a 100% detection accuracy on DFME and DaST. FDINET is highly efficient, using just 50 queries to raise an extraction alarm with an average confidence of 96.08% for GTSRB. FDINET exhibits the capability to identify colluding adversaries with an accuracy exceeding 91%. Additionally, it demonstrates the ability to detect two types of adaptive attacks.


MutateNN: Mutation Testing of Image Recognition Models Deployed on Hardware Accelerators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the research advancement of Artificial Intelligence in the last years, there are new opportunities to mitigate real-world problems and advance technologically. Image recognition models in particular, are assigned with perception tasks to mitigate complex real-world challenges and lead to new solutions. Furthermore, the computational complexity and demand for resources of such models has also increased. To mitigate this, model optimization and hardware acceleration has come into play, but effectively integrating such concepts is a challenging and error-prone process. In order to allow developers and researchers to explore the robustness of deep learning image recognition models deployed on different hardware acceleration devices, we propose MutateNN, a tool that provides mutation testing and analysis capabilities for that purpose. To showcase its capabilities, we utilized 21 mutations for 7 widely-known pre-trained deep neural network models. We deployed our mutants on 4 different devices of varying computational capabilities and observed discrepancies in mutants related to conditional operations, as well as some unstable behaviour with those related to arithmetic types.


Classification Tree Pruning Under Covariate Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of \emph{pruning} a classification tree, that is, selecting a suitable subtree that balances bias and variance, in common situations with inhomogeneous training data. Namely, assuming access to mostly data from a distribution $P_{X, Y}$, but little data from a desired distribution $Q_{X, Y}$ with different $X$-marginals, we present the first efficient procedure for optimal pruning in such situations, when cross-validation and other penalized variants are grossly inadequate. Optimality is derived with respect to a notion of \emph{average discrepancy} $P_{X} \to Q_{X}$ (averaged over $X$ space) which significantly relaxes a recent notion -- termed \emph{transfer-exponent} -- shown to tightly capture the limits of classification under such a distribution shift. Our relaxed notion can be viewed as a measure of \emph{relative dimension} between distributions, as it relates to existing notions of information such as the Minkowski and Renyi dimensions.


DeepIPC: Deeply Integrated Perception and Control for an Autonomous Vehicle in Real Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose DeepIPC, an end-to-end autonomous driving model that handles both perception and control tasks in driving a vehicle. The model consists of two main parts, perception and controller modules. The perception module takes an RGBD image to perform semantic segmentation and bird's eye view (BEV) semantic mapping along with providing their encoded features. Meanwhile, the controller module processes these features with the measurement of GNSS locations and angular speed to estimate waypoints that come with latent features. Then, two different agents are used to translate waypoints and latent features into a set of navigational controls to drive the vehicle. The model is evaluated by predicting driving records and performing automated driving under various conditions in real environments. The experimental results show that DeepIPC achieves the best drivability and multi-task performance even with fewer parameters compared to the other models. Codes will be published at https://github.com/oskarnatan/DeepIPC.


Biden to meet with experts about the dangers of AI on visit to San Francisco

Los Angeles Times

President Biden is scheduled to meet researchers and advocates with expertise in artificial intelligence on Tuesday in San Francisco as his administration attempts to tackle potential dangers of a technology that could fuel misinformation, job losses, discrimination and privacy violations. The meeting comes as Biden ramps up efforts to raise money for his 2024 reelection bid, including from tech billionaires. While visiting Silicon Valley on Monday, he attended two fundraisers, including one co-hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman who has numerous ties to AI businesses. The venture capitalist was an early investor in Open AI, which built the popular ChatGPT app, and sits on the board of tech companies including Microsoft that are investing heavily in AI. Experts Biden is expected to meet with Tuesday include some of Big Tech's loudest critics.