Early warning systems are an essential tool for effective humanitarian action. Advance warnings on impending disasters facilitate timely and targeted response which help save lives, livelihoods, and scarce financial resources. In this work we present a new quantitative methodology to forecast levels of food consumption for 60 consecutive days, at the sub-national level, in four countries: Mali, Nigeria, Syria, and Yemen. The methodology is built on publicly available data from the World Food Programme's integrated global hunger monitoring system which collects, processes, and displays daily updates on key food security metrics, conflict, weather events, and other drivers of food insecurity across 90 countries (https://hungermap.wfp.org/). In this study, we assessed the performance of various models including ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTMs, CNNs, and Reservoir Computing (RC), by comparing their Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. This comprehensive analysis spanned classical statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches. Our findings highlight Reservoir Computing as a particularly well-suited model in the field of food security given both its notable resistance to over-fitting on limited data samples and its efficient training capabilities. The methodology we introduce establishes the groundwork for a global, data-driven early warning system designed to anticipate and detect food insecurity.

A farmer in Niger tends to a tree sprout growing among his millet crop.Tony Rinaudo/World Vision Australia This story was originally published by Yale Environment 360 and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. For decades, there have been reports of the deforestation in Africa. And they are true--the continent's forests are disappearing, lost mainly to expanding agriculture, logging, and charcoal-making. Maybe not, according to new satellite data analyzed by artificial intelligence and a growing body of on-the-ground studies. This new research is finding ever more trees outside forests, many of them nurtured by farmers and sprouting on their previously treeless fields.

We approach autonomous drone-based reforestation with a collaborative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) setup. Agents can communicate as part of a dynamically changing network. We explore collaboration and communication on the back of a high-impact problem. Forests are the main resource to control rising CO2 conditions. Unfortunately, the global forest volume is decreasing at an unprecedented rate. Many areas are too large and hard to traverse to plant new trees. To efficiently cover as much area as possible, here we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) based communication mechanism that enables collaboration. Agents can share location information on areas needing reforestation, which increases viewed area and planted tree count. We compare our proposed communication mechanism with a multi-agent baseline without the ability to communicate. Results show how communication enables collaboration and increases collective performance, planting precision and the risk-taking propensity of individual agents.