The neural activity in the visual processing is influenced by both external stimuli and internal brain states. Ideally, a neural predictive model should account for both of them. Currently, there are no dynamic encoding models that explicitly model a latent state and the entire neuronal response distribution. We address this gap by proposing a probabilistic model that predicts the joint distribution of the neuronal responses from video stimuli and stimulus-independent latent factors. After training and testing our model on mouse V1 neuronal responses, we find that it outperforms video-only models in terms of log-likelihood and achieves improvements in likelihood and correlation when conditioned on responses from other neurons. Furthermore, we find that the learned latent factors strongly correlate with mouse behavior and that they exhibit patterns related to the neurons' position on the visual cortex, although the model was trained without behavior and cortical coordinates. Our findings demonstrate that unsupervised learning of latent factors from population responses can reveal biologically meaningful structure that bridges sensory processing and behavior, without requiring explicit behavioral annotations during training.

Calcium imaging is a critical tool for measuring the activity of large neural populations. Much effort has been devoted to developing "pre-processing" tools for calcium video data, addressing the important issues of e.g., motion correction, denoising, compression, demixing, and deconvolution. However, statistical modeling of deconvolved calcium signals (i.e., the estimated activity extracted by a pre-processing pipeline) is just as critical for interpreting calcium measurements, and for incorporating these observations into downstream probabilistic encoding and decoding models. Surprisingly, these issues have to date received significantly less attention. In this work we examine the statistical properties of the deconvolved activity estimates, and compare probabilistic models for these random signals. In particular, we propose a zero-inflated gamma (ZIG) model, which characterizes the calcium responses as a mixture of a gamma distribution and a point mass that serves to model zero responses. We apply the resulting models to neural encoding and decoding problems. We find that the ZIG model outperforms simpler models (e.g., Poisson or Bernoulli models) in the context of both simulated and real neural data, and can therefore play a useful role in bridging calcium imaging analysis methods with tools for analyzing activity in large neural populations.