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Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines introduced by the underlying latent and turbulent wind field. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes. We present an efficient variational approximation based on nested variational compression and show how the model can be used to extract shared information between dependent time series, recovering an interpretable functional decomposition of the learning problem. We show results for an artificial data set and real-world data of two wind turbines.


Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines introduced by the underlying latent and turbulent wind field. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes. We present an efficient variational approximation based on nested variational compression and show how the model can be used to extract shared information between dependent time series, recovering an interpretable functional decomposition of the learning problem. We show results for an artificial data set and real-world data of two wind turbines.


Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Markus Kaiser, Clemens Otte, Thomas Runkler, Carl Henrik Ek

Neural Information Processing Systems

The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes.



Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

Markus Kaiser, Clemens Otte, Thomas Runkler, Carl Henrik Ek

Neural Information Processing Systems

The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes.


Hybrid Autoencoder-Based Framework for Early Fault Detection in Wind Turbines

Nair, Rekha R, Babu, Tina, Panthakkan, Alavikunhu, Balusamy, Balamurugan, Mansoor, Wathiq

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind turbine reliability is critical to the growing renewable energy sector, where early fault detection significantly reduces downtime and maintenance costs. This paper introduces a novel ensemble-based deep learning framework for unsupervised anomaly detection in wind turbines. The method integrates Variational Autoencoders (VAE), LSTM Autoencoders, and Transformer architectures, each capturing different temporal and contextual patterns from high-dimensional SCADA data. A unique feature engineering pipeline extracts temporal, statistical, and frequency-domain indicators, which are then processed by the deep models. Ensemble scoring combines model predictions, followed by adaptive thresholding to detect operational anomalies without requiring labeled fault data. Evaluated on the CARE dataset containing 89 years of real-world turbine data across three wind farms, the proposed method achieves an AUC-ROC of 0.947 and early fault detection up to 48 hours prior to failure. This approach offers significant societal value by enabling predictive maintenance, reducing turbine failures, and enhancing operational efficiency in large-scale wind energy deployments.



Multi-task neural diffusion processes for uncertainty-quantified wind power prediction

Rawson, Joseph, Ladopoulou, Domniki, Dellaportas, Petros

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty-aware wind power prediction is essential for grid integration and reliable wind farm operation. We apply neural diffusion processes (NDPs)--a recent class of models that learn distributions over functions--and extend them to a multi-task NDP (MT-NDP) framework for wind power prediction. We provide the first empirical evaluation of NDPs in real supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. We introduce a task encoder within MT-NDPs to capture cross-turbine correlations and enable few-shot adaptation to unseen turbines. The proposed MT-NDP framework outperforms single-task NDPs and GPs in terms of point accuracy and calibration, particularly for wind turbines whose behaviour deviates from the fleet average. In general, NDP-based models deliver calibrated and scalable predictions suitable for operational deployment, offering sharper, yet trustworthy, predictive intervals that can support dispatch and maintenance decisions in modern wind farms. Introduction Wind energy has become a cornerstone of the global transition to clean power. As wind power capacity expands worldwide, ensuring reliability and minimising downtime are critical to both energy security and the financial viability of wind farms. Beyond energy balancing, uncertainty-aware forecasting also reduces operational uncertainty for wind farm operators, enabling more efficient maintenance scheduling and reducing costly unplanned downtime. This is especially important given that operation and maintenance costs represent a significant share of total expenditure, with unexpected failures making up the largest component [1, 2]. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems provide a low-cost and widely available source of wind turbine data. They capture environmental and operational variables with high frequency, making them invaluable for prediction applications. However, their use is complicated by measurement noise, turbine downtime, and limited public availability [3, 4].


News Corp embraces fantasy genre by turning climate crisis into 'laughable' science fiction Temperature Check

The Guardian > Energy

The energy and climate change minister, Chris Bowen, right, and the assistant minister for climate change, Josh Wilson, discuss the National Climate Risk Assessment. The energy and climate change minister, Chris Bowen, right, and the assistant minister for climate change, Josh Wilson, discuss the National Climate Risk Assessment. News Corp embraces fantasy genre by turning climate crisis into'laughable' science fiction On the front page of the Daily Telegraph, Australia's first comprehensive assessment of the risks from climate change became "SCIENCE FICTION". In other leading stories, wind turbines became a frightening obstacle for firefighting planes and solar panels were a source of mountains of landfill waste. Some might say there's a pattern there that would not be out of character with News Corporation's more than occasional animosity towards climate change science and renewable energy.


BirdRecorder's AI on Sky: Safeguarding birds of prey by detection and classification of tiny objects around wind turbines

Klar, Nico, Gifary, Nizam, Ziegler, Felix P. G., Sehnke, Frank, Kaifel, Anton, Price, Eric, Ahmad, Aamir

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The urgent need for renewable energy expansion, particularly wind power, is hindered by conflicts with wildlife conservation. To address this, we developed BirdRecorder, an advanced AI-based anti-collision system to protect endangered birds, especially the red kite ( Milvus milvus). Integrating robotics, telemetry, and high-performance AI algorithms, BirdRecorder aims to detect, track, and classify avian species within a range of 800 m to minimize bird-turbine collisions. BirdRecorder integrates advanced AI methods with optimized hardware and software architectures to enable real-time image processing. Leveraging Single Shot Detector (SSD) [1] for detection, combined with specialized hardware acceleration and tracking algorithms, our system achieves high detection precision while maintaining the speed necessary for real-time decision-making. By combining these components, BirdRecorder outperforms existing approaches in both accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we summarize results on field tests and performance of the BirdRecorder system. By bridging the gap between renewable energy expansion and wildlife conservation, BirdRecorder contributes to a more sustainable coexistence of technology and nature.