A basketball fan of my close acquaintance woke up Wednesday morning and, upon learning the outcome of the first games of the NBA season, announced that "The Warriors suck." Can we answer this question? To put it more precisely, how much information is supplied by that first-game-of-season blowout? Speaking Bayesianly, who much should we adjust our expectation that the Splashies will dominate this year? This is an interesting question in its own right but also is an example of something I've been thinking about regarding base-rate fallacy and the rate of integration of information over time, and it relates to some of our favorite topics such as odds for presidential vote, Brexit, Leicester City, etc.