This paper presents a probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation problems. In them, a model is trained on labeled data but must adapt to unlabeled data at test time under the assumption that training and test distributions potentially differ, that is, there might have been a distributional shift. The framework is based on a state-space modelling architecture from which parameter learning, parameter time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction can be characterized.

It is difficult to evaluate machine learning classifiers without large labeled datasets, which are often unavailable. In contrast, unlabeled data is plentiful, but not easily used for evaluation. Here, we introduce Semi-Supervised Model Evaluation (SSME), a method that uses both labeled and unlabeled data to evaluate machine learning classifiers. The key idea is to estimate the joint distribution of ground truth labels and classifier scores using a semi-supervised mixture model. The semisupervised mixture model allows SSME to learn from three sources of information: unlabeled data, multiple classifiers, and probabilistic classifier scores. Once fit, the mixture model enables estimation of any metric that is a function of classifier scores and ground truth labels (e.g., accuracy or AUC). We derive theoretical bounds on the error of these estimates, showing that estimation error decreases with the number of classifiers and the amount of unlabeled data. We present experiments in four domains where obtaining large labeled datasets is often impractical: healthcare, content moderation, molecular property prediction, and text classification. Our results demonstrate that SSME estimates performance more accurately than do competing methods, reducing error by 5.1 relative to using labeled data alone and 2.4 relative to the next best method.

Uncertain knowledge graphs (UKGs) associate each triple with a confidence score to provide more precise knowledge representations. Recently, since real-world UKGs suffer from the incompleteness, uncertain knowledge graph (UKG) completion attracts more attention, aiming to complete missing triples and confidences. Current studies attempt to learn UKG embeddings to solve this problem, but they neglect the extremely imbalanced distributions of triple confidences. This causes that the learnt embeddings are insufficient to high-quality UKG completion. Thus, in this paper, to address the above issue, we propose a new semi-supervised Confidence Distribution Learning (ssCDL) method for UKG completion, where each triple confidence is transformed into a confidence distribution to introduce more supervision information of different confidences to reinforce the embedding learning process.

Positive-Unlabeled (PU) learning refers to a specific weakly-supervised learning paradigm that induces a binary classifier with a few positive labeled instances and massive unlabeled instances. To handle this task, the community has proposed dozens of PU learning methods with various techniques, demonstrating strong potential. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study to investigate the basic characteristics of current PU learning methods. We organize them into two fundamental families of PU learning, including disambiguation-free empirical risks, which approximate the expected risk of supervised learning, and pseudo-labeling methods, which estimate pseudo-labels for unlabeled instances. First, we make an empirical analysis on disambiguation-free empirical risks such as uPU, nnPU, and DistPU, and suggest a novel risk-consistent set-aware empirical risk from the perspective of aggregate supervision. Second, we make an empirical analysis of pseudo-labeling methods to evaluate the potential of pseudo-label estimation techniques and widely applied generic tricks in PU learning. Finally, based on those empirical findings, we propose a general framework of PU learning by integrating the set-aware empirical risk with pseudo-labeling. Compared with existing PU learning methods, the proposed framework can be a practical benchmark in PU learning.

Pseudo label based semi-supervised learning (SSL) for single-label and multilabel classification tasks has been extensively studied; however, semi-supervised label distribution learning (SSLDL) remains a largely unexplored area. Existing SSL methods fail in SSLDL because the pseudo-labels they generate only ensure overall similarity to the ground truth but do not preserve the ranking relationships between true labels, as they rely solely on KL divergence as the loss function during training. These skewed pseudo-labels lead the model to learn incorrect semantic relationships, resulting in reduced performance accuracy. To address these issues, we propose a novel SSLDL method called RankMatch. RankMatch fully considers the ranking relationships between different labels during the training phase with labeled data to generate higher-quality pseudo-labels. Furthermore, our key observation is that a flexible utilization of pseudo-labels can enhance SSLDL performance. Specifically, focusing solely on the ranking relationships between labels while disregarding their margins helps prevent model overfitting. Theoretically, we prove that incorporating ranking correlations enhances SSLDL performance and establish generalization error bounds for RankMatch.

We resolve a 30-year-old open problem concerning the power of unlabeled data in online learning by tightly quantifying the gap between transductive and standard online learning. In the standard setting, the optimal mistake bound is characterized by the Littlestone dimension dof the concept class H(Littlestone, 1987). We prove that in the transductive setting, the mistake bound is at least Ω d . This constitutes an exponential improvement over previous lower bounds of Ω(loglog(d)), Ω p log(d), and Ω(log(d)), due respectively to Ben-David, Kushilevitz, and Mansour (1995, 1997), and Hanneke, Moran, and Shafer (2023). We also show that this lower bound is tight: for every d, there exists a class of Littlestone dimension d with transductive mistake bound O d . Our upper bound also improves upon the best known upper bound of (2/3) d from Ben-David et al. (1997). These results establish a quadratic gap between transductive and standard online learning, thereby highlighting the benefit of advance access to the unlabeled instance sequence. This contrasts with the PAC setting, where transductive and standard learning exhibit similar sample complexities.

In multi-objective learning (MOL), several possibly competing prediction tasks must be solved jointly by a single model. Achieving good trade-offs may require a model class G with larger capacity than what is necessary for solving the individual tasks. This, in turn, increases the statistical cost, as reflected in known MOL bounds that depend on the complexity of G. We show that this cost is unavoidable for some losses, even in an idealized semi-supervised setting, where the learner has access to the Bayes-optimal solutions for the individual tasks as well as the marginal distributions over the covariates. On the other hand, for objectives defined with Bregman losses, we prove that the complexity of G may come into play only in terms of unlabeled data. Concretely, we establish sample complexity upper bounds, showing precisely when and how unlabeled data can significantly alleviate the need for labeled data. This is achieved by a simple pseudo-labeling algorithm.

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a recently proposed statistical inference technique for parameter estimation that leverages pseudo-labels on both labeled and unlabeled data to construct an unbiased, low-variance estimator. In this work, we extend its core idea to semi-supervised learning (SSL) for model training, introducing a novel unbiased gradient estimator. This extension addresses a key challenge in SSL: while unlabeled data can improve model performance, its benefit heavily depends on the quality of pseudo-labels. Inaccurate pseudo-labels can introduce bias, leading to suboptimal models. To balance the contributions of labeled and pseudo-labeled data, we utilize an interpolation parameter and tune it on the fly, alongside the model parameters, using a one-dimensional online learning algorithm. We verify the practical advantage of our approach through experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, demonstrating improved performance over classic SSL baselines and PPI methods that tune the interpolation parameter offline.

Current 3D gaze estimation methods struggle to generalize across diverse data domains, primarily due to i) the scarcity of annotated datasets, and ii) the insufficient diversity of labeled data. In this work, we present OMNIGAZE, a semi-supervised framework for 3D gaze estimation, which utilizes large-scale unlabeled data collected from diverse and unconstrained real-world environments to mitigate domain bias and generalize gaze estimation in the wild. First, we build a diverse collection of unlabeled facial images, varying in facial appearances, background environments, illumination conditions, head poses, and eye occlusions. In order to leverage unlabeled data spanning a broader distribution, OMNIGAZE adopts a standard pseudo-labeling strategy and devises a reward model to assess the reliability of pseudo labels. Beyond pseudo labels as 3D direction vectors, the reward model also incorporates visual embeddings extracted by an off-the-shelf visual encoder and semantic cues from gaze perspective generated by prompting a Multimodal Large Language Model to compute confidence scores. Then, these scores are utilized to select high-quality pseudo labels and weight them for loss computation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OMNIGAZE achieves state-of-the-art performance on five datasets under both in-domain and cross-domain settings. Furthermore, we also evaluate the efficacy of OMNIGAZE as a scalable data engine for gaze estimation, which exhibits robust zero-shot generalization on four unseen datasets.

Positive and Unlabeled (PU) learning is a special case of binary classification with weak supervision, where only positive labeled and unlabeled data are available. Previous studies suggest several specific risk estimators of PU learning such as non-negative PU (nnPU), which are unbiased and consistent with the expected risk of supervised binary classification. In nnPU, the negative-class empirical risk is estimated by positive labeled and unlabeled data with a non-negativity constraint. However, its negative-class empirical risk estimator approaches 0, so the negative class is over-played, resulting in imbalanced error rates between positive and negative classes. To solve this problem, we suppose that the expected risks of the positive-class and negative-class should be close. Accordingly, we constrain that the negative-class empirical risk estimator is lower bounded by the positive-class empirical risk, instead of 0; and also incorporate an explicit equality constraint between them. We suggest a risk estimator of PU learning that balances positive and negative classification error rates, named DC-PU, and suggest an efficient training method for DC-PU based on the augmented Lagrange multiplier framework. We theoretically analyze the estimation error of DC-PU and empirically validate that DC-PU achieves higher accuracy and converges more stable than other risk estimators of PU learning. Additionally, DC-PU also performs competitive accuracy performance with practical PU learning methods.