The recently-proposed framework of Predict+Optimize tackles optimization problems with parameters that are unknown at solving time, in a supervised learning setting. Prior frameworks consider only the scenario where all unknown parameters are (eventually) revealed simultaneously. In this work, we propose Multi-Stage Predict+Optimize, a novel extension catering to applications where unknown parameters are revealed in sequential stages, with optimization decisions made in between. We further develop three training algorithms for neural networks (NNs) for our framework as proof of concept, both of which handle all mixed integer linear programs. The first baseline algorithm is a natural extension of prior work, training a single NN which makes a single prediction of unknown parameters.

The task is to i) predict the unknown parameters, then ii) solve the optimization problem using the predicted parameters, such that the resulting solutions are good even under true parameters.

The task is to i) predict the unknown parameters, then ii) solve the optimization problem using the predicted parameters, such that the resulting solutions are good even under true parameters.

Consider the setting of constrained optimization, with some parameters unknown at solving time and requiring prediction from relevant features. Predict+Optimize is a recent framework for end-to-end training supervised learning models for such predictions, incorporating information about the optimization problem in the training process in order to yield better predictions in terms of the quality of the predicted solution under the true parameters. Almost all prior works have focused on the special case where the unknowns appear only in the optimization objective and not the constraints. Hu et al. proposed the first adaptation of Predict+Optimize to handle unknowns appearing in constraints, but the framework has somewhat ad-hoc elements, and they provided a training algorithm only for covering and packing linear programs. In this work, we give a new simpler and more powerful framework called Two-Stage Predict+Optimize, which we believe should be the canonical framework for the Predict+Optimize setting. We also give a training algorithm usable for all mixed integer linear programs, vastly generalizing the applicability of the framework. Experimental results demonstrate the superior prediction performance of our training framework over all classical and state-of-the-art methods.

Models of many real-life applications, such as queueing models of communication networks or computing systems, have a countably infinite state-space. Algorithmic and learning procedures that have been developed to produce optimal policies mainly focus on finite state settings, and do not directly apply to these models. To overcome this lacuna, in this work we study the problem of optimal control of a family of discrete-time countable state-space Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) governed by an unknown parameter $\theta\in\Theta$, and defined on a countably-infinite state-space $\mathcal X=\mathbb{Z}_+^d$, with finite action space $\mathcal A$, and an unbounded cost function. We take a Bayesian perspective with the random unknown parameter $\boldsymbol{\theta}^*$ generated via a given fixed prior distribution on $\Theta$. To optimally control the unknown MDP, we propose an algorithm based on Thompson sampling with dynamically-sized episodes: at the beginning of each episode, the posterior distribution formed via Bayes' rule is used to produce a parameter estimate, which then decides the policy applied during the episode. To ensure the stability of the Markov chain obtained by following the policy chosen for each parameter, we impose ergodicity assumptions. From this condition and using the solution of the average cost Bellman equation, we establish an $\tilde O(dh^d\sqrt{|\mathcal A|T})$ upper bound on the Bayesian regret of our algorithm, where $T$ is the time-horizon. Finally, to elucidate the applicability of our algorithm, we consider two different queueing models with unknown dynamics, and show that our algorithm can be applied to develop approximately optimal control algorithms.