Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. Nassim Taleb is a former financial derivatives trader and probability researcher, his book'The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable' highlights how highly improbable events impact our daily life and financial markets.

An empirical investigation of active/continuous authentication for smartphones is presented in this paper by exploiting users' unique application usage data, i.e., distinct patterns of use, modeled by a Markovian process. Variations of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are evaluated for continuous user verification, and challenges due to the sparsity of session-wise data, an explosion of states, and handling unforeseen events in the test data are tackled. Unlike traditional approaches, the proposed formulation does not depend on the top N-apps, rather uses the complete app-usage information to achieve low latency. Through experimentation, empirical assessment of the impact of unforeseen events, i.e., unknown applications and unforeseen observations, on user verification is done via a modified edit-distance algorithm for simple sequence matching. It is found that for enhanced verification performance, unforeseen events should be incorporated in the models by adopting smoothing techniques with HMMs. For validation, extensive experiments on two distinct datasets are performed. The marginal smoothing technique is the most effective for user verification in terms of equal error rate (EER) and with a sampling rate of 1/30s^{-1} and 30 minutes of historical data, and the method is capable of detecting an intrusion within ~2.5 minutes of application use.

Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial intelligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches, this paper reexamines expected utility theory-from which Bayesian probability theory is derived. Expected utility theory requires the decision maker to assign a utility to each decision conditioned on every possible event that might occur. But frequently the decision maker cannot foresee all the events that might occur, i.e., one of the possible events is the occurrence of an unforeseen event. So once we acknowledge the existence of unforeseen events, we need to develop some way of assigning utilities to decisions conditioned on unforeseen events. The commonsensical solution to this problem is to assign similar utilities to events which are similar. Implementing this commonsensical solution is equivalent to replacing Bayesian subjective probabilities over the space of foreseen and unforeseen events by random set theory probabilities over the space of foreseen events. This leads to an expected utility principle in which normalized variants of Shafer's commonalities play the role of subjective probabilities. Hence allowing for unforeseen events in decision analysis causes Bayesian probability theory to become much more similar to Shaferian theory.