Clinical trials are a systematic endeavor to assess the safety and efficacy of new drugs or treatments. Conducting such trials typically demands significant financial investment and meticulous planning, highlighting the need for accurate predictions of trial outcomes. Accurately predicting patient enrollment, a key factor in trial success, is one of the primary challenges during the planning phase. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning-based method to address this critical challenge. Our method, implemented as a neural network model, leverages pre-trained language models (PLMs) to capture the complexities and nuances of clinical documents, transforming them into expressive representations. These representations are then combined with encoded tabular features via an attention mechanism. To account for uncertainties in enrollment prediction, we enhance the model with a probabilistic layer based on the Gamma distribution, which enables range estimation. We apply the proposed model to predict clinical trial duration, assuming site-level enrollment follows a Poisson-Gamma process. We carry out extensive experiments on real-world clinical trial data, and show that the proposed method can effectively predict the number of patients enrolled at a number of sites for a given clinical trial, outperforming established baseline models.

The clinical trial process, also known as drug development, is an indispensable step toward the development of new treatments. The major objective of interventional clinical trials is to assess the safety and effectiveness of drug-based treatment in treating certain diseases in the human body. However, clinical trials are lengthy, labor-intensive, and costly. The duration of a clinical trial is a crucial factor that influences overall expenses. Therefore, effective management of the timeline of a clinical trial is essential for controlling the budget and maximizing the economic viability of the research. To address this issue, We propose TrialDura, a machine learning-based method that estimates the duration of clinical trials using multimodal data, including disease names, drug molecules, trial phases, and eligibility criteria. Then, we encode them into Bio-BERT embeddings specifically tuned for biomedical contexts to provide a deeper and more relevant semantic understanding of clinical trial data. Finally, the model's hierarchical attention mechanism connects all of the embeddings to capture their interactions and predict clinical trial duration. Our proposed model demonstrated superior performance with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.04 years and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.39 years compared to the other models, indicating more accurate clinical trial duration prediction. Publicly available code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TrialDura-F196

Human brain performs remarkably well in segregating a particular speaker from interfering speakers in a multi-speaker scenario. It has been recently shown that we can quantitatively evaluate the segregation capability by modelling the relationship between the speech signals present in an auditory scene and the cortical signals of the listener measured using electroencephalography (EEG). This has opened up avenues to integrate neuro-feedback into hearing aids whereby the device can infer user's attention and enhance the attended speaker. Commonly used algorithms to infer the auditory attention are based on linear systems theory where the speech cues such as envelopes are mapped on to the EEG signals. Here, we present a joint convolutional neural network (CNN) - long short-term memory (LSTM) model to infer the auditory attention. Our joint CNN-LSTM model takes the EEG signals and the spectrogram of the multiple speakers as inputs and classifies the attention to one of the speakers. We evaluated the reliability of our neural network using three different datasets comprising of 61 subjects where, each subject undertook a dual-speaker experiment. The three datasets analysed corresponded to speech stimuli presented in three different languages namely German, Danish and Dutch. Using the proposed joint CNN-LSTM model, we obtained a median decoding accuracy of 77.2% at a trial duration of three seconds. Furthermore, we evaluated the amount of sparsity that our model can tolerate by means of magnitude pruning and found that the model can tolerate up to 50% sparsity without substantial loss of decoding accuracy.