Typically,givenanindividual,atreatmentassignment,andatreatmentoutcome, the counterfactual question asks what would have happened to that individual, had it been given anothertreatment,everythingelsebeingequal.

Estimating counterfactual outcome of different treatments from observational data is an important problem to assist decision making in a variety of fields. Among the various forms of treatment specification, bundle treatment has been widely adopted inmanyscenarios, such asrecommendation systems andonline marketing.

In pharmaceutical R&D, predicting the efficacy of a pharmaceutical in treating a particular disease prior to clinical testing or any real-world use has been challenging. In this paper, we propose a flexible and modular machine learning-based approach for predicting the efficacy of an untested pharmaceutical for treating a disease. We train a machine learning model using sets of pharmaceutical-pathway weight impact scores and patient data, which can include patient characteristics and observed clinical outcomes. The resulting model then analyses weighted impact scores of an untested pharmaceutical across human biological molecule-protein pathways to generate a predicted efficacy value. We demonstrate how the method works on a real-world dataset with patient treatments and outcomes, with two different weight impact score algorithms We include methods for evaluating the generalisation performance on unseen treatments, and to characterise conditions under which the approach can be expected to be most predictive. We discuss specific ways in which our approach can be iterated on, making it an initial framework to support future work on predicting the effect of untested drugs, leveraging RWD clinical data and drug embeddings.

The question of whether artificial agents (e.g., chatbots and social robots) can replace human therapists has received notable attention following the recent launch of large language models. However, little is known about the processes of change in psychotherapy delivered by artificial agents. To facilitate hypothesis development and stimulate scientific debate, the present article offers the first theoretical framework of the processes of change in psychotherapy delivered by artificial agents. The theoretical framework rests upon a conceptual analysis of what active ingredients may be inherently linked to the presence of human therapists. We propose that human therapists' ontological status as human beings and sociocultural status as socially sanctioned healthcare professionals play crucial roles in promoting treatment outcomes. In the absence of the ontological and sociocultural status of human therapists, we propose what we coin the genuineness gap and credibility gap can emerge and undermine key processes of change in psychotherapy. Based on these propositions, we propose avenues for scientific investigations and practical applications aimed at leveraging the strengths of artificial agents and human therapists respectively. We also highlight the intricate agentic nature of artificial agents and discuss how this complicates endeavors to establish universally applicable propositions regarding the processes of change in these interventions.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health challenge, and is compounded by co-morbidities such as HIV, diabetes, and anemia, which complicate treatment outcomes and contribute to heterogeneous patient responses. Traditional models of TB often overlook this heterogeneity by focusing on broad, pre-defined patient groups, thereby missing the nuanced effects of individual patient contexts. We propose moving beyond coarse subgroup analyses by using contextualized modeling, a multi-task learning approach that encodes patient context into personalized models of treatment effects, revealing patient-specific treatment benefits. Applied to the TB Portals dataset with multi-modal measurements for over 3,000 TB patients, our model reveals structured interactions between co-morbidities, treatments, and patient outcomes, identifying anemia, age of onset, and HIV as influential for treatment efficacy. By enhancing predictive accuracy in heterogeneous populations and providing patient-specific insights, contextualized models promise to enable new approaches to personalized treatment.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health threat, ranking among the leading causes of mortality worldwide. In this context, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a transformative force, providing innovative solutions to the complexities associated with TB treatment.This study explores how machine learning, especially with tabular data, can be used to predict Tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes more accurately. It transforms this prediction task into a binary classification problem, generating risk scores from patient data sourced from NIKSHAY, India's national TB control program, which includes over 500,000 patient records. Data preprocessing is a critical component of the study, and the model achieved an recall of 98% and an AUC-ROC score of 0.95 on the validation set, which includes 20,000 patient records.We also explore the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) for improved model learning. Our results, corroborated by various metrics and ablation studies, validate the effectiveness of our approach. The study concludes by discussing the potential ramifications of our research on TB eradication efforts and proposing potential avenues for future work. This study marks a significant stride in the battle against TB, showcasing the potential of machine learning in healthcare.

AI-driven precision oncology has the transformative potential to reshape cancer treatment by leveraging the power of AI models to analyze the interaction between complex patient characteristics and their corresponding treatment outcomes. New technological platforms have facilitated the timely acquisition of multimodal data on tumor biology at an unprecedented resolution, such as single-cell multi-omics data, making this quality and quantity of data available for data-driven improved clinical decision-making. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning framework designed for personalized counterfactual cancer treatment suggestions based on an ensemble of machine learning experts trained on diverse multi-omics technologies. These specialized counterfactual experts per technology are consistently aggregated into a more powerful expert with superior performance and can provide both confidence and an explanation of its decision. The framework is tailored to address critical challenges inherent in data-driven cancer research, including the high-dimensional nature of the data, and the presence of treatment assignment bias in the retrospective observational data. The framework is showcased through comprehensive demonstrations using data from in-vitro and in-vivo treatment responses from a cohort of patients with ovarian cancer. Our method aims to empower clinicians with a reality-centric decision-support tool including probabilistic treatment suggestions with calibrated confidence and personalized explanations for tailoring treatment strategies to multi-omics characteristics of individual cancer patients.