treatment effect function
Heterogeneous Causal Learning for Optimizing Aggregated Functions in User Growth
Du, Shuyang, Zhang, Jennifer, Zou, Will Y.
User growth is a major strategy for consumer internet companies. To optimize costly marketing campaigns and maximize user engagement, we propose a novel treatment effect optimization methodology to enhance user growth marketing. By leveraging deep learning, our algorithm learns from past experiments to optimize user selection and reward allocation, maximizing campaign impact while minimizing costs. Unlike traditional prediction methods, our model directly models uplifts in key business metrics. Further, our deep learning model can jointly optimize parameters for an aggregated loss function using softmax gating. Our approach surpasses traditional methods by directly targeting desired business metrics and demonstrates superior algorithmic flexibility in handling complex business constraints. Comprehensive evaluations, including comparisons with state-of-the-art techniques such as R-learner and Causal Forest, validate the effectiveness of our model. We experimentally demonstrate that our proposed constrained and direct optimization algorithms significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods by over $20\%$, proving their cost-efficiency and real-world impact. The versatile methods can be applied to various product scenarios, including optimal treatment allocation. Its effectiveness has also been validated through successful worldwide production deployments.
Deep Learning of Continuous and Structured Policies for Aggregated Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
Zhang, Jennifer Y., Du, Shuyang, Zou, Will Y.
As estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) is increasingly adopted across a wide range of scientific and industrial applications, the treatment action space can naturally expand, from a binary treatment variable to a structured treatment policy. This policy may include several policy factors such as a continuous treatment intensity variable, or discrete treatment assignments. From first principles, we derive the formulation for incorporating multiple treatment policy variables into the functional forms of individual and average treatment effects. Building on this, we develop a methodology to directly rank subjects using aggregated HTE functions. In particular, we construct a Neural-Augmented Naive Bayes layer within a deep learning framework to incorporate an arbitrary number of factors that satisfies the Naive Bayes assumption. The factored layer is then applied with continuous treatment variables, treatment assignment, and direct ranking of aggregated treatment effect functions. Together, these algorithms build towards a generic framework for deep learning of heterogeneous treatment policies, and we show their power to improve performance with public datasets.