trade data
Pattern Recognition of Scrap Plastic Misclassification in Global Trade Data
We propose an interpretable machine learning framework to help identify trade data discrepancies that are challenging to detect with traditional methods. Our system analyzes trade data to find a novel inverse price-volume signature, a pattern where reported volumes increase as average unit prices decrease. The model achieves 0.9375 accuracy and was validated by comparing large-scale UN data with detailed firm-level data, confirming that the risk signatures are consistent. This scalable tool provides customs authorities with a transparent, data-driven method to shift from conventional to priority-based inspection protocols, translating complex data into actionable intelligence to support international environmental policies.
DIT: Dimension Reduction View on Optimal NFT Rarity Meters
Belousov, Dmitry, Yanovich, Yury
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have become a significant digital asset class, each uniquely representing virtual entities such as artworks. These tokens are stored in collections within smart contracts and are actively traded across platforms on Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana blockchains. The value of NFTs is closely tied to their distinctive characteristics that define rarity, leading to a growing interest in quantifying rarity within both industry and academia. While there are existing rarity meters for assessing NFT rarity, comparing them can be challenging without direct access to the underlying collection data. The Rating over all Rarities (ROAR) benchmark addresses this challenge by providing a standardized framework for evaluating NFT rarity. This paper explores a dimension reduction approach to rarity design, introducing new performance measures and meters, and evaluates them using the ROAR benchmark. Our contributions to the rarity meter design issue include developing an optimal rarity meter design using non-metric weighted multidimensional scaling, introducing Dissimilarity in Trades (DIT) as a performance measure inspired by dimension reduction techniques, and unveiling the non-interpretable rarity meter DIT, which demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.
Accurate prediction of international trade flows: Leveraging knowledge graphs and their embeddings
Rincon-Yanez, Diego, Ounoughi, Chahinez, Sellami, Bassem, Kalvet, Tarmo, Tiits, Marek, Senatore, Sabrina, Yahia, Sadok Ben
As a result, KR is critical to offering a simple strategy for defining relevant and contextual information within a finite number of facts from a specific domain of interest; these facts are referred to as a knowledge base (KB). In the past years, Knowledge Graph (KG), as a form of KR, has gained attention because it provides a contextual, natural, and human-like form of representing knowledge in specific domains and common sense. KG is formed in statements called triples on the T = (h, r, t) form, where h (head) and t (tail) represent objects in real life, and r, the relation is the connection between those entities. Internet companies like Google, Wikipedia, and Facebook have found a simple but powerful unified tool in the KG field to describe their multi-structured and multi-dimensional knowledge base, capturing user data to transform it into vast KBs [3]. The KG approach is particularly relevant to studying international trade, a significant cornerstone of economic and social development in the globalized economy [4, 5]. International trade is complex and interconnected, with multiple entities (commodities, companies, and countries) interacting in multiple ways [6]. This method helps to understand those complex interactions in a structured and intuitive way. In international economics, the gravity model, a fundamental part of the current method, is widely used to predict trade relations between entities based on factors like size (GDP, population) and distance or other factors [7, 8, 9].
AI fused with trade data may smooth clunky supply chains
The dawn of artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT may revolutionize the way both the public and private sector use data to ferret out risks and opportunities in the $32 trillion global trading system. During the pandemic, government agencies and industries like financial services and telecommunications accelerated their adoption of machine-learning tools. But many involved in trade were caught in analog, paper-laden transactions playing catch-up. Now, after three years of historic trade disruptions, generative AI and language-learning models have emerged just when governments and companies need them to better manage the world's convoluted supply lines.
Mapping Global Value Chains at the Product Level
Karbevska, Lea, Hidalgo, César A.
Value chain data is crucial to navigate economic disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Yet, despite its importance, publicly available value chain datasets, such as the ``World Input-Output Database'', ``Inter-Country Input-Output Tables'', ``EXIOBASE'' or the ``EORA'', lack detailed information about products (e.g. Radio Receivers, Telephones, Electrical Capacitors, LCDs, etc.) and rely instead on more aggregate industrial sectors (e.g. Electrical Equipment, Telecommunications). Here, we introduce a method based on machine learning and trade theory to infer product-level value chain relationships from fine-grained international trade data. We apply our method to data summarizing the exports and imports of 300+ world regions (e.g. states in the U.S., prefectures in Japan, etc.) and 1200+ products to infer value chain information implicit in their trade patterns. Furthermore, we use proportional allocation to assign the trade flow between regions and countries. This work provides an approximate method to map value chain data at the product level with a relevant trade flow, that should be of interest to people working in logistics, trade, and sustainable development.
Scrutinizing Shipment Records To Thwart Illegal Timber Trade
Datta, Debanjan, Muthiah, Sathappan, Simeone, John, Meadows, Amelia, Ramakrishnan, Naren
Timber and forest products made from wood, like furniture, are valuable commodities, and like the global trade of many highly-valued natural resources, face challenges of corruption, fraud, and illegal harvesting. These grey and black market activities in the wood and forest products sector are not limited to the countries where the wood was harvested, but extend throughout the global supply chain and have been tied to illicit financial flows, like trade-based money laundering, document fraud, species mislabeling, and other illegal activities. The task of finding such fraudulent activities using trade data, in the absence of ground truth, can be modelled as an unsupervised anomaly detection problem. However existing approaches suffer from certain shortcomings in their applicability towards large scale trade data. Trade data is heterogeneous, with both categorical and numerical attributes in a tabular format. The overall challenge lies in the complexity, volume and velocity of data, with large number of entities and lack of ground truth labels. To mitigate these, we propose a novel unsupervised anomaly detection -- Contrastive Learning based Heterogeneous Anomaly Detection (CHAD) that is generally applicable for large-scale heterogeneous tabular data. We demonstrate our model CHAD performs favorably against multiple comparable baselines for public benchmark datasets, and outperforms them in the case of trade data. More importantly we demonstrate our approach reduces assumptions and efforts required hyperparameter tuning, which is a key challenging aspect in an unsupervised training paradigm. Specifically, our overarching objective pertains to detecting suspicious timber shipments and patterns using Bill of Lading trade record data. Detecting anomalous transactions in shipment records can enable further investigation by government agencies and supply chain constituents.
Single source of trade data needed to futureproof regtech
Effectively managing and storing trade data will ensure that technology used to comply with current regulations remains usable for future requirements, says the chief product and engineering officer, Calypso. "[Having] data in a consistent format, where applications dealing with different product types, different parts of the trade life cycle and workflow are all contributing to that data source, and reading from that same data source, makes the job of reporting on that data so much easier," says Calypso's Richard Bentley. "Without that, for every single regulation that comes along, you are going to have to go to every application involved in the workflow that is impacted, modify those applications to extract the right data from each, pull it all together in a consistent format, try to transform and enrich it - and do that continually." In the 2019 bobsguide Rankings – announced in late November – Calypso ranked top for both regulatory compliance and integration with other systems. The firm came second in the degree of straight-through processing category.
Single source of trade data needed to futureproof regtech
Effectively managing and storing trade data will ensure that technology used to comply with current regulations remains usable for future requirements, says the chief product and engineering officer, Calypso. "[Having] data in a consistent format, where applications dealing with different product types, different parts of the trade life cycle and workflow are all contributing to that data source, and reading from that same data source, makes the job of reporting on that data so much easier," says Calypso's Richard Bentley. "Without that, for every single regulation that comes along, you are going to have to go to every application involved in the workflow that is impacted, modify those applications to extract the right data from each, pull it all together in a consistent format, try to transform and enrich it - and do that continually." In the 2019 bobsguide Rankings – announced in late November – Calypso ranked top for both regulatory compliance and integration with other systems. The firm came second in the degree of straight-through processing category.