Tornadoes are among the most intense atmospheric vortex phenomena and pose significant challenges for detection and forecasting. Conventional methods, which heavily depend on ground-based observations and radar data, are limited by issues such as decreased accuracy over greater distances and a high rate of false positives. To address these challenges, this study utilizes the Seamless Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (SHSR) dataset from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which integrates data from multiple radar sources to enhance accuracy. A novel hybrid model, the Kalman-Convolutional BiLSTM with Multi-Head Attention, is introduced to improve dynamic state estimation and capture both spatial and temporal dependencies within the data. This model demonstrates superior performance in precision, recall, F1-Score, and accuracy compared to methods such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and LightGBM. The results highlight the considerable potential of advanced machine learning techniques to improve tornado prediction and reduce false alarm rates. Future research will focus on expanding datasets, exploring innovative model architectures, and incorporating large language models (LLMs) to provide deeper insights. This research introduces a novel model for tornado prediction, offering a robust framework for enhancing forecasting accuracy and public safety.

Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today it is mainly carried out by expert meteorologists, who interpret meteorological models. In this paper we propose a system for the early detection of a tornado, validating its effectiveness in a real-world context and exploiting meteorological data collection systems that are already widespread throughout the world. Our system was able to predict tornadoes with a maximum probability of 84% up to five days before the event on a novel dataset of more than 5000 tornadic and non-tornadic events. The dataset and the code to reproduce our results are available at: https://tinyurl.com/3brsfwpk