time series

What is Machine Learning and how do we use it in Signals?


If you go to college and take a course "Machine learning 101", this might be the first example of machine learning your teacher will show you: Imagine you work for a real estate agency, and you want to predict, for how much a house will sell. You have some historical data -- you know that house A has been sold for $500 000, house B for $600 000, and house C for $550 000. You also know something about properties of the houses -- you know the size of the house in square meters, number of rooms in the house, and the year the house was build. The goal of the real estate agency is to predict, for how much a new house D will sell, given its known properties (size, age and number of rooms of the house). In ML terminology, the known properties of the house are called "features" or "indicators" (we use the term "indicators" in Signals, because this term has been historically used in trading).

Seglearn: A Python Package for Learning Sequences and Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Seglearn is an open-source python package for machine learning time series or sequences using a sliding window segmentation approach. The implementation provides a flexible pipeline for tackling classification, regression, and forecasting problems with multivariate sequence and contextual data. This package is compatible with scikit-learn and is listed under scikit-learn Related Projects. The package depends on numpy, scipy, and scikit-learn. Seglearn is distributed under the BSD 3-Clause License. Documentation includes a detailed API description, user guide, and examples. Unit tests provide a high degree of code coverage.

Modern Approaches for Sales Predictive Analytics


Sales prediction is an important part of modern business intelligence. First approaches one can apply to predict sales time series are such conventional methods of forecasting as ARIMA and Holt-Winters. But there are several challenges while using these methods. They are: multilevel daily/weekly/monthly/yearly seasonality, many exogenous factors which impact sales, complex trends in different time periods. In such cases, it is not easy to apply conventional methods.

Exponential Smoothing of Time Series Data in R


In "Components of Time Series Data", I discussed the components of time series data. In time series analysis, we assume that the data consist of a systematic pattern (usually a set of identifiable components) and random noise (error), which often makes the pattern difficult to identify. Most time series analysis techniques involve some form of filtering out noise to make the pattern more noticeable.

NVIDIAVoice: Get Started With AI In Your Business In 3 Steps


We've heard plenty about AI – how AI is the future of work, how AI adoption raises new questions about ethics, how AI can transform your business – and it's no question that there is a lot of hype. It's time to reduce the confusion around how AI truly moves the needle for businesses and offer guidance on how to get started.

Time Series for Dummies – The 3 Step Process


After a satisfying meal of Chinese takeout, you absentmindedly crack open the complimentary fortune cookie. Glancing at the fortune inside, you read, "A dream you have will come true." Scoffing, you toss the small piece of paper and pop the cookie in your mouth. Being the intelligent, well-reasoned person you are, you know the fortune is insignificant--no one can predict the future. However, that thought may be incomplete.

Discovering Bayesian Market Views for Intelligent Asset Allocation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Along with the advance of opinion mining techniques, public mood has been found to be a key element for stock market prediction. However, in what manner the market participants are affected by public mood has been rarely discussed. As a result, there has been little progress in leveraging public mood for the asset allocation problem, as the application is preferred in a trusted and interpretable way. In order to address the issue of incorporating public mood analyzed from social media, we propose to formalize it into market views that can be integrated into the modern portfolio theory. In this framework, the optimal market views will maximize returns in each period with a Bayesian asset allocation model. We train two neural models to generate the market views, and benchmark the performance of our model using market views on other popular asset allocation strategies. Our experimental results suggest that the formalization of market views significantly increases the profitability (5% to 10%) of the simulated portfolio at a given risk level.

Time series classification with Tensorflow


Time-series data arise in many fields including finance, signal processing, speech recognition and medicine. A standard approach to time-series problems usually requires manual engineering of features which can then be fed into a machine learning algorithm. Engineering of features generally requires some domain knowledge of the discipline where the data has originated from. For example, if one is dealing with signals (i.e.

On Forecasts - Adam Drake


I was meeting with a client recently, and since it was the end of the year and they were in their budgeting process we were discussing forecasting methodologies. They were asking about their marketing function specifically, but the conversation applied more or less to all areas of the business which set targets and/or develop a budget.

Time Series Analysis in Python: An Introduction – Towards Data Science


Time series are one of the most common data types encountered in daily life. Financial prices, weather, home energy usage, and even weight are all examples of data that can be collected at regular intervals. Almost every data scientist will encounter time series in their daily work and learning how to model them is an important skill in the data science toolbox. One powerful yet simple method for analyzing and predicting periodic data is the additive model. The idea is straightforward: represent a time-series as a combination of patterns at different scales such as daily, weekly, seasonally, and yearly, along with an overall trend.