time score
ScoreMatchingRiesz: Auto-DML with Infinitesimal Classification
This study proposes Riesz representer estimation methods based on score matching. The Riesz representer is a key component in debiased machine learning for constructing $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and efficient estimators in causal inference and structural parameter estimation. To estimate the Riesz representer, direct approaches have garnered attention, such as Riesz regression and the covariate balancing propensity score. These approaches can also be interpreted as variants of direct density ratio estimation (DRE) in several applications such as average treatment effect estimation. In DRE, it is well known that flexible models can easily overfit the observed data due to the estimand and the form of the loss function. To address this issue, recent work has proposed modeling the density ratio as a product of multiple intermediate density ratios and estimating it using score-matching techniques, which are often used in the diffusion model literature. We extend score-matching-based DRE methods to Riesz representer estimation. Our proposed method not only mitigates overfitting but also provides insights for causal inference by bridging marginal effects and average policy effects through time score functions.
Dequantified Diffusion-Schr{ö}dinger Bridge for Density Ratio Estimation
Chen, Wei, Li, Shigui, Li, Jiacheng, Yang, Junmei, Paisley, John, Zeng, Delu
Density ratio estimation is fundamental to tasks involving f-divergences, yet existing methods often fail under significantly different distributions or inadequately overlapping supports -- the density-chasm and the support-chasm problems. Additionally, prior approaches yield divergent time scores near boundaries, leading to instability. We design $\textbf{D}^3\textbf{RE}$, a unified framework for robust, stable and efficient density ratio estimation. We propose the dequantified diffusion bridge interpolant (DDBI), which expands support coverage and stabilizes time scores via diffusion bridges and Gaussian dequantization. Building on DDBI, the proposed dequantified Schr{ö}dinger bridge interpolant (DSBI) incorporates optimal transport to solve the Schr{ö}dinger bridge problem, enhancing accuracy and efficiency. Our method offers uniform approximation and bounded time scores in theory, and outperforms baselines empirically in mutual information and density estimation tasks.
Density Ratio Estimation with Conditional Probability Paths
Yu, Hanlin, Klami, Arto, Hyvärinen, Aapo, Korba, Anna, Chehab, Omar
Density ratio estimation in high dimensions can be reframed as integrating a certain quantity, the time score, over probability paths which interpolate between the two densities. In practice, the time score has to be estimated based on samples from the two densities. However, existing methods for this problem remain computationally expensive and can yield inaccurate estimates. Inspired by recent advances in generative modeling, we introduce a novel framework for time score estimation, based on a conditioning variable. Choosing the conditioning variable judiciously enables a closed-form objective function. We demonstrate that, compared to previous approaches, our approach results in faster learning of the time score and competitive or better estimation accuracies of the density ratio on challenging tasks. Furthermore, we establish theoretical guarantees on the error of the estimated density ratio.
Density Ratio Estimation via Infinitesimal Classification
Choi, Kristy, Meng, Chenlin, Song, Yang, Ermon, Stefano
Density ratio estimation (DRE) is a fundamental machine learning technique for comparing two probability distributions. However, existing methods struggle in high-dimensional settings, as it is difficult to accurately compare probability distributions based on finite samples. In this work we propose DRE-\infty, a divide-and-conquer approach to reduce DRE to a series of easier subproblems. Inspired by Monte Carlo methods, we smoothly interpolate between the two distributions via an infinite continuum of intermediate bridge distributions. We then estimate the instantaneous rate of change of the bridge distributions indexed by time (the "time score") -- a quantity defined analogously to data (Stein) scores -- with a novel time score matching objective. Crucially, the learned time scores can then be integrated to compute the desired density ratio. In addition, we show that traditional (Stein) scores can be used to obtain integration paths that connect regions of high density in both distributions, improving performance in practice. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well on downstream tasks such as mutual information estimation and energy-based modeling on complex, high-dimensional datasets.