BrainODElearns a deformation space over anatomically meaningful brain regions to facilitate early prediction of neurodegenerative disease progression. Addressing inherent challenges of longitudinal neuroimaging data--such as limited sample sizes, irregular temporal sampling, and substantial inter-subject variability--we propose a conditional neural ODE architecture that models shape dynamics with subject-specific age and cognitive status. To enable autoregressive forecasting of brain morphology from a single observation, we propose a pseudo-cognitive status embedding that allows progressive shape prediction across intermediate time points with predicted cognitive decline. Experiments show that BrainODE outperforms time-aware baselines in predicting future brain shapes, demonstrating strong generalization across longitudinal datasets with both regular and irregular time intervals.

A foundation model for medical time series, pretrained on ethically approved clinical datasets, can substantially reduce annotation burdens, minimize the need for task-specific tuning, and promote reliable transferability across healthcare institutions, data modalities, and clinical tasks, especially in data-scarce or privacysensitive environments. However, existing generalist time series foundation models struggle to handle medical time series data due to their inherent challenges, including irregular intervals, heterogeneous sampling rates, and frequent missing values. To address these challenges, we introduce MIRA, a unified foundation model specifically designed for medical time series forecasting. MIRA incorporates a Continuous-Time Rotary Positional Encoding that enables fine-grained modeling of variable time intervals, a frequency-specific mixture-of-experts layer that routes computation across latent frequency regimes to further promote temporal specialization, and a Continuous Dynamics Extrapolation Block based on Neural ODE that models the continuous trajectory of latent states, enabling accurate forecasting at arbitrary target timestamps. Pretrained on a large-scale and diverse medical corpus comprising over 454 billion time points collect from publicly available datasets, MIRA achieves reductions in forecasting errors by an average of 8% and 6% in out-of-distribution and in-distribution scenarios, respectively, when compared to other zero-shot and fine-tuned baselines. We also introduce a comprehensive benchmark spanning multiple downstream clinical tasks, establishing a foundation for future research in medical time series modeling. Our code is available at Microsoft/MIRA.

Understanding the evolving dependence between two sets of multivariate signals is fundamental in neuroscience and other domains where sub-networks in a system interact dynamically over time. Despite the growing interest in multivariate time series analysis, existing methods for between-clusters dependence typically rely on the assumption of stationarity and lack the temporal resolution to capture transient, frequency-specific interactions. To overcome this limitation, we propose scale-specific wavelet canonical coherence (WaveCanCoh), a novel framework that extends canonical coherence analysis to the nonstationary setting by leveraging the multivariate locally stationary wavelet model. The proposed WaveCanCoh enables the estimation of time-varying canonical coherence between clusters, providing interpretable insight into scale-specific time-varying interactions between clusters. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate that WaveCanCoh accurately recovers true coherence structures under both locally stationary and general nonstationary conditions. Application to local field potential (LFP) activity data recorded from the hippocampus reveals distinct dynamic coherence patterns between correct and incorrect memory-guided decisions, illustrating the capacity of the method to detect behaviorally relevant neural coordination.

Recovering the dynamics from a few snapshots of a high-dimensional system is a challenging task in statistical physics and machine learning, with important applications in computational biology. Many algorithms have been developed to tackle this problem, based on frameworks such as optimal transport and the Schrödinger bridge. A notable recent framework is Regularized Unbalanced Optimal Transport (RUOT), which integrates both stochastic dynamics and unnormalized distributions. However, since many existing methods do not explicitly enforce optimality conditions, their solutions often struggle to satisfy the principle of least action and meet challenges to converge in a stable and reliable way. To address these issues, we propose Variational RUOT (Var-RUOT), a new framework to solve the RUOT problem. By incorporating the optimal necessary conditions for the RUOT problem into both the parameterization of the search space and the loss function design, Var-RUOT only needs to learn a scalar field to solve the RUOT problem and can search for solutions with lower action. We also examined the challenge of selecting a growth penalty function in the widely used Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao metric and proposed a solution that better aligns with biological priors in Var-RUOT.

Analysing how neural networks represent data features in their activations can help interpret how they perform tasks. Hence, a long line of work has focused on mathematically characterising the geometry of such "neural representations." In parallel, machine learning has seen a surge of interest in understanding how dynamical systems perform computations on time-varying input data. Yet, the link between computation-through-dynamics and representational geometry remains poorly understood. Here, we hypothesise that recurrent neural networks (RNNs) perform computations by dynamically warping their representations of task variables. To test this hypothesis, we develop a Riemannian geometric framework that enables the derivation of the manifold topology and geometry of a dynamical system from the manifold of its inputs. By characterising the time-varying geometry of RNNs, we show that dynamic warping is a fundamental feature of their computations.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are well suited to modelling noisy and/or irregularly-sampled time series, which are omnipresent in finance, physics, and machine learning applications. Traditional approaches require costly simulation of numerical solvers when sampling between arbitrary time points. We introduce Neural Stochastic Flows (NSFs) and their latent dynamic versions, which learns (latent) SDE transition laws directly using conditional normalising flows, with architectural constraints that preserve properties inherited from stochastic flow. This enables sampling between arbitrary states in a single step, providing up to two orders of magnitude speedup for distant time points. Experiments on synthetic SDE simulations and real-world tracking and video data demonstrate that NSF maintains distributional accuracy comparable to numerical approaches while dramatically reducing computation for arbitrary time-point sampling, enabling applications where numerical solvers remain prohibitively expensive.

Time-varying networks arise in a variety of ubiquitous applications, such as functional brain connectivity [Thompson et al., 2017, Zhang et al., 2020], gene and genomic regulatory processes [Zhang and Cao, 2017, Bartlett et al., 2021], and social or economic environments [Snijders et al., 2010, Kolar et al., 2010]. In these contexts, measurements collected at different time points record how observed connections fluctuate, forming a sequence of network snapshots that reflect the temporal evolution of the underlying system. For example, fMRI studies yield time-indexed measurements of activity across brain regions, from which researchers construct connectivity networks that change over the scanning period [Bassett et al., 2011, Rubinov and Sporns, 2010]. Similarly, in political systems such as the U.S. Senate, legislative cosponsorship records give rise to network snapshots that naturally vary across sessions [Fowler, 2006, Kirkland and Gross, 2014]. General reviews of time-varying network analysis, including methodological developments and representative applications, are provided in Holme and Saram aki [2012] and Kim et al. [2018].

Cross-region dynamic connectivity, which describes the spatio-temporal dependence of neural activity among multiple brain regions of interest (ROIs), can provide important information for understanding cognition. For estimating such connectivity, magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) are well-suited tools because of their millisecond temporal resolution. However, localizing source activity in the brain requires solving an under-determined linear problem. In typical two-step approaches, researchers first solve the linear problem with generic priors assuming independence across ROIs, and secondly quantify cross-region connectivity. In this work, we propose a one-step state-space model to improve estimation of dynamic connectivity. The model treats the mean activity in individual ROIs as the state variable and describes non-stationary dynamic dependence across ROIs using time-varying auto-regression. Compared with a two-step method, which first obtains the commonly used minimum-norm estimates of source activity, and then fits the auto-regressive model, our state-space model yielded smaller estimation errors on simulated data where the model assumptions held. When applied on empirical MEG data from one participant in a scene-processing experiment, our state-space model also demonstrated intriguing preliminary results, indicating leading and lagged linear dependence between the early visual cortex and a higher-level scene-sensitive region, which could reflect feedforward and feedback information flow within the visual cortex during scene processing.