In the current paper we relax the information structure of these classical frameworks by allowing arbitrary information arrivalprocesses.

Obtaining reliable inferences with traditional difference-in-differences (DiD) methods can be difficult. Problems can arise when both outcomes and errors are serially correlated, when there are few clusters or few treated clusters, when cluster sizes vary greatly, and in various other cases. In recent years, recognition of the ``staggered adoption'' problem has shifted the focus away from inference towards consistent estimation of treatment effects. One of the most popular new estimators is the CSDID procedure of Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021). We find that the issues of over-rejection with few clusters and/or few treated clusters are at least as severe for CSDID as for traditional DiD methods. We also propose using a cluster jackknife for inference with CSDID, which simulations suggest greatly improves inference. We provide software packages in Stata csdidjack and R didjack to calculate cluster-jackknife standard errors easily.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We consider a general adversarial multi-armed blocking bandit setting where each played arm can be blocked (unavailable) for some time periods and the reward per arm is given at each time period adversarially without obeying any distribution. The setting models scenarios of allocating scarce limited supplies (e.g., arms) where the supplies replenish and can be reused only after certain time periods. We first show that, in the optimization setting, when the blocking durations and rewards are known in advance, finding an optimal policy (e.g., determining which arm per round) that maximises the cumulative reward is strongly NP-hard, eliminating the possibility of a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for the problem unless P = NP. To complement our result, we show that a greedy algorithm that plays the best available arm at each round provides an approximation guarantee that depends on the blocking durations and the path variance of the rewards. In the bandit setting, when the blocking durations and rewards are not known, we design two algorithms, RGA and RGA-META, for the case of bounded duration an path variation.

Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems.